Seeking Alpha

Ryan Pollack

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Ryan Pollack's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • ACTC completes 1:100 reverse split [View news story]
    Stupid move doing this before peer review or results. They just crushed all existing shareholders.
    Aug 27 07:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology: Maximizing Profit On Reverse Splits And Phase I Results [View article]
    Csy,

    Rethink your logic. The % increase has nothing to do with the amount of shares you have the % is determined by price. As a shareholder if you already had built a large stake in a company and they floated around 1-100 reverse your potential future NOTIONAL earnings just took a huge. This has nothing to do with % increase or decrease in stock price going forward from the split point.

    Also think why is splits cheered by Wall St.? Companies split because it limits their investors when the price becomes too high NOTIONALLY and the company feels there is still demand in their stock. So a company like Apple splits reduces the price and in this case investors have 7x more shares. Most of the time the price rises due to new investors now getting in the stock, which means a 7x NOTIONAL rise in position value, and if the company is a dividend grower you're getting in on 7x future payments. And logically if the reverse is the opposite of a split then Wall St. jeers this and usually reverses are part of a dilution scheme anyway.

    I'm surprised at the level of ineptness of understanding why reverse splits are bad in the majority of cases from some of the commenters here. And for ACTC its bad because the ultimate future of the company has nothing to do with a reverse split; just get the private funding. Uplist can occur after you have an approved product where the market realizes it better get on board with the stock.
    Aug 27 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Every Dividend Growth Investor Should Own AT&T Right Now [View article]
    Been in T for 3 years and approaching 1000 shares via DRIPping. To other commenters the $500 and $100 million number is JUST on NFL Sunday Package/MLB Extra Innings subscribers. The big view is the regular monthly cable bill subscriptions and the partial ownership of some of the sports networks. And I think there would be an allure to those already having Sunday Ticket to switch to other T services just to consolidate bills because a football fan is not giving up Sunday Ticket. Also of note I think DTV is having a new fantasy football channel this year (at least that was what the Manning brothers were rapping about). Fantasy Sports itself is a mutli-billion dollar industry there could be potential here to expand on that as well.

    I agree with the author this could be much larger benefit than people are realizing.
    Aug 27 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology: Maximizing Profit On Reverse Splits And Phase I Results [View article]
    They can get funding from Lincoln Park or another venture capital/hedge fund. I'll take some more dilution to avoid a 100-1 reverse split, the reverse at that level is worse.
    Aug 26 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology: Maximizing Profit On Reverse Splits And Phase I Results [View article]
    They can get capital from Lincoln Park, or another private equity/hedge fund. Diluting some more to avoid a 1-100 reverse is worth it for shareholders.
    Aug 26 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology: Maximizing Profit On Reverse Splits And Phase I Results [View article]
    I look at both. AMD/SMD revenue in the US/Europe is estimated to be $30 billion. Include the rest of the world ie Asia/South America, it should easily be $60 billion. Your market caps should start there.

    Depending how the market values an approved product not taking into account other pipeline in ACTC then you would get $9.09/share on $30 billion revenue or $18.18/share on $60 billion revenue on today's share count. Both more than enough for a natural uplist.

    Most likely, and in my opinion, if ADM/SMD is successful and approved market would value it in the low $20s meaning worldwide distribution and premium allocated to the other patents and pipeline. X factors we don't know is peer-review and jv, although I'm sure a jv would be with blood program and not AMD/SMD. They can't give that away after seeing the results they are seeing. At least I hope not.
    Aug 26 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology: Maximizing Profit On Reverse Splits And Phase I Results [View article]
    The reverse split sucks because if you have a million shares every $1 increase in share price is $1 million notional gain, if its split to 10,000 shares then every $1 increase is only $10,000 gain. That's a huge difference and why I never wanted the reverse split.

    The other fact is ACTC doesn't need it. Success or failure is not dependent on the reverse split. And the revenue potetnial of AMD/SMD worldwide is astronomical who cares if the float is 3.3 billion or 4 billion or 5 billion now. Shareholders at the time of product approval would still make a boatload.

    My prediction is Sept. 30 comes and goes with no reverse then the BOD will put it back on the ballot at the annual meeting and be approved again because ACTC insiders control most of the float. Then the peer review and/or jv will come increase the price then they can do the reverse split. My hope is that when the peer-review and/or jv happen, the price increase is significant enough that the BOD will rethink this reverse split nonsense and realize they don't need it.

    Very simply the AMD/SMD trial success = ACTC survives, and AMD/SMD failure = ACTC is dead. IMO it looks like success with some of the results from a phase 1.
    Aug 26 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buying A House Is A Terrible Investment [View article]
    Until the hurricanes hit
    Aug 11 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Rite Aid Slips On Walgreen Deal [View article]
    I think its more due to WAG not doing the tax inversion and RAD and CVS just falling in sympathy, but agree whatever the reason its all WAG dependent and really doesn't affect RAD or CVS at all.
    Aug 6 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marathon Oil: Staying Bullish As The Company Hikes Its Dividend [View article]
    Heather I think you have a typo. The quarterly dividend is now 0.21

    'On Wednesday, July 30, Marathon Oil announced a quarterly dividend increase of $0.02/share, which brings its upcoming dividend payout to $0.31/share.'
    Aug 1 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Not Selling Anything, I'm Buying Everything [View article]
    Jimicasey,

    I looked this up on monthly prices in Yahoo and the GLD on Aug 2, 2008 was $81.71 and on April 1, 2009 was $91.03 for a gain of 11.41%! I also remember the VIX spiking absurdly like people could have retired just investing in VIX products during that short time.
    Jul 31 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Not Selling Anything, I'm Buying Everything [View article]
    Great article Dale! Learned many lesson from 2008. Saw a big drop on paper, but stayed invested and (luckily) rebalanced to perhaps better companies at the bottom and been on this 5 year run and add in reinvesting the divindeds to my dividend growth stocks plus 401k and IRA contributions and not only am I back to where I was before the finanical crisis I am nearly double that number. That's the power of staying invested, not panicking (especially if you have time on your side like I do) and the power of compounding.

    So now I know I can handle a 60% market decline, I know the market bounces back (living through tech bubble and financial crisis and studying Great Depression) and hopefully the next time I spot those upcoming problems that lead to 50% market declines and can avoid them (or at least mitigate those paper losses to 20%) then go shopping for the next bull run.
    Jul 31 10:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Potential To Unlock Huge Value By Creating REIT [View article]
    Perhaps I'm reading your reply wrong Anthony, but I know T could not maintain its dividend in the new company post any spinoff. But I would like lets say the REIT company and the 'new' T each pay .92 to equal the current $1.84. Then going forward the REIT could raise its dividend on its leases to other companies and T could raise its dividend with even more new found cf and less debt. That would be fantastic for T shareholders. Thanks for the quick response.
    Jul 29 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Potential To Unlock Huge Value By Creating REIT [View article]
    Based on what WIN did it backhandedly lowered the dividend from $1 to .7 (REIT will pay .6 and the 'new' WIN will pay .1) I understand, especially for T, that in the long run would increase cf and decrease debt and you have a pure play of telecom and cable (assuming DTV goes through and synergies with UVerse are met) but if T does this how likely are we to get a decreased dividend like WIN just did (from the total of the two parts). A perfect scenario would be no reduction in the T divy instead splitting it to still equal the $1.84 currently paid and have both companies increase the dividend. Perhaps I'm asking too much.

    Long: T
    Jul 29 11:11 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buying A House Is A Terrible Investment [View article]
    Why is renting vs buying even an issue? As you want to have shelter, somewhere:

    Renting:
    -No tax breaks
    -No return on investment
    -Consistently rising cost (100% guaranteed live in a place 30 years and see how many times your landlord raises your rent and CAGR it from the first year to the last year I think you'll pretty much outpace inflation there)
    -Easier to move yes but still a cost to move with no boon of a sale ie more expense

    Owning:
    -Tax Breaks
    -Extremely likely return on investment over 30 years
    -Inflation hedge historically (but doesn't have to follow inflation)
    -Can provide cash flow by collecting rent (if 2+ family house or investment house)

    Pretty clear cut here on which will be better. Obviously like any investment stock, bonds, etc you don't want to overpay. News flash people are doing that with bonds right now and have historically done that with stocks. And you need to compare locations so you can't generalize this. Buying in NYC is no way like buying in Detroit.

    "Buy land, they don't make it anymore." - Mark Twain
    Jun 16 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
228 Comments
347 Likes