Ryan Pollack

Long only, value, growth at reasonable price, long-term horizon
Ryan Pollack
Long only, value, growth at reasonable price, long-term horizon
Contributor since: 2009
T is not paying out more than it earns. Back out one time items for their recent purchases which these are already providing enormous savings and cash flow and thus paying for themselves. Analyst estimates are that T is expected to pay out about 70% of cash flow in 2016. Whether an investor is comfortable with that or not is personal preference, but it certainly is a far cry from paying out more than its bringing in.
T and VZ are both good, but I think T is making better moves going into content, starting an international footprint, and having huge cost synergies. VZ is basically going into online news with AOL and it looks like Yahoo. Forget the search aspect of Yahoo no one is competing with Google on that front.
Great article laying out the benefits and drawbacks of SNR. There are also more millenials than baby boomers, so in theory this could be a growth industry for the rest of my life (I am an older millennial). I had the NRZ and SNR spinoffs from NCT and I believe the mix of Fortress fees, the general market atmosphere since the spinoffs, and a lack of understanding of SNR and NRZ by the 'pros', because there really is nothing to compare these companies to business model wise (particularly NRZ) that they were sold off. However, they both have had record earnings the past couple of quarters and have raised dividend this year. And I expect NRZ to raise it again after their last report to .48/q. In my opinion these two companies are a gift! The prices are extremely cheap yet they have had record earnings and dividend raises. People are getting fooled by the high yield as well thinking that there is a problem here. I continue to add to both positions strategically and through DRIP.
Long SNR and NRZ
Agreed. double digit dividend growth should be continued next year for them.
Nice call on ADM. I was in your camp the commodity market is too volatile right now for them to continue a double digit raise this year, but 7% isn't for slouches. Still holding that and DRIPing.
Good stay down a little longer with an increased dividend, that's good for my DRIP!
No I don't. Under 35 P/E for these companies is cheap. No one else does nor can do what Visa and Mastercard have built. They (especially Visa) continue to eat American Express and Discover's lunch. Apple and Google in my opinion won't have the will to invest in payment networks to the level of V and MA and will therefore be bit players in this market. Apple will most likely limit their payment network to ITunes and their Apple stores, and Google will either abandon payments or team up with one the big two.
That's only my opinion but that is how I see things eventually playing out with those companies. Remember its taken V and MA 50+ years to get to where they are today. They are established and trusted. This is an expensive nut to crack into.
Not only do they both still have very good growth based on monetary trends but they haven't even begun to tap into China and India. That's over 2 BILLION more potential customers, eventually. China is getting there and India is in the early innings like what China was back in the 1990s.
Does anyone know what ever happened to ZillionTV? When Visa first became public they had this in their 10K I believe. The were in a joint venture with some other media companies. Basically its tailored pay TV. Basically from what I remember if you chose to watch commercials your content was free and the ad was targeted to your likes and interests. Visa and the others get paid through the ad. If you chose not to view commercials then you pay the for the content. Visa and others get paid by the customer. Also based on the commercials I believe you were able to pause your show and could click on a feature to buy said item over Visa's network. I remember this was in beta. I'm curious if this is still ongoing or has been shelved. I haven't heard anything about it for a while. This would actually be a good idea for Visa to partner with Apple or Google or Netflix if they were to venture into television/streaming.
Moody's says go by subprime mortgages. They are rated Aaa1
I fail to see how V is overvalued. Compare it to MA: according to yahoo finance P/E for V is 28.26, for MA it's 27.14. Forward P/E for V 21.92, for MA it's 22.99. PEG for V is 1.44, for MA it's 1.54. P/S for V is 12.14, for MA it's 9.76. Current yield for V is 0.78%, for MA it's 0.87%.
If your main metric is P/S then yes one could make a case for MA over V, but all other metrics are pretty much even between the two, with Visa having the bigger network. I don't think you can go wrong with either though. Both are great companies, have huge networks in a high barrier to entry business, and pretty much on par with their valuation relative to each other.
Do you find MA similarly overvalued or are you just cautious about the debt taken on to buy and integrate Visa Europe? I think the long term move is a good one regarding Visa Europe though.
BTW...I normally agree with your thesis in your otherwise well-written articles.
Its not understood. Market is indiscriminately selling off mreits the last quarter and they think nrz will only make money if rates rise (both are fallacies regarding nrz) and that should be slower than anticipated. These are good real estate managers and investors. Don't pay attention to the volatility and collect your SAFE 17% with a possible raise coming.
One thing about Wall St. is that they do EVENTUALLY get it right. These low prices are great for my DRIP though.
Another RECORD quarter. Dividend raise this quarter? Could possibly be .48 imo.
This was a fantastic quarter for the first full DTV quarter. Any dip in T is an adding opportunity. 630,000 net adds in Mexico this quarter is a knock out of park as well, everyone focused on DTV and not pricing in Latam growth imo. Plus we gets paid next week.
Long: T
WB,
Exactly he had buys OVER the bid price. So he either needs to fire his risk arb team or he knows something we do not yet.
Unless you buy back in DWD if the price goes back to the $4 range lol
Conspiracy theory on my part, but perhaps that was done on purpose. Hard to prove, but delay the trial and keep a lid on the price for Astellas to come in with their oh so generous 90% premium. Make it look like a better bid than it actually is.
Yup, that that would mean he expects an increased offer, new bidder, or perhaps change to activist if the tender fails again. I would hope he did his homework on this company and realize the potential that's soon to be and that he shouldn't be boxed into one way thinking of risk arb. RAD, which I am also long, is a much better risk arb play imo, makes me wonder why OCAT.
No one said anything about the gov't losing the money. I know they made themselves money on the bailout. They "bailed" out the banks buying very cheap, special shares and sold them at higher prices when the banks stabilized plus all the fine revenue.
My point is if you wanted to help the economy and get things back to normal as quickly as possible that money is better served in the hands of the average joe. The natural response of the banks, that should have been foreseen by the gov't, was that lending qualifications by the banks on their customers would be increasingly scrutinized as to protect against more mistakes after a crisis, and the expected payout in fines and reduced revenue.
Jason-
Stimulus is different than welfare programs. Welfare programs just do enough to get you through the day. I am talking about stimulus/bailouts to save a party like in 2008.
Many economists have said all the money that went to the banks during this time would have been put to better use for the overall economy if it was divided up amongst households instead.
This should be the final nail in the coffin, for what I and others I'm sure on SeekingAlpha have known for a while. Trickle Down economics is the greatest political lie ever told. Rich people and banks hoard the money to sure up their finances, they are not interested in nor need to take risks such as starting a new venture or increase their loans. There is still very little lending by the banks in today's environment in response to the gov't regulation, more lending would translate to more inflation then add to the fact that no one saw energy prices crashing to and remaining at these low levels for a long period of time. The regular person also altered behavior. Less excesses, more saving, more paying down debt not taking on debt.
Here are some ideas for the future, probably controversial but the entire 2000's has been controversial
1) Any stimulus/bailout go to the poor and middle class. These are the people that will buy appliances, start businesses, etc. The gov't should have giving $50,000 per tax filer/household in the Great Recession
2) No more free trade
3) Abolish the fed and let interest rates float
4) Re-enact Glass-Steagal
5) No deposit requirement on retail banks. They would judge their deposit base better than just assigning a % of deposits that they should hold
It appears a good amount of his buys are $8.49 and $8.495 that's why I say what's the point. But granted I don't know the price of all his buys.
It appears on Gabelli's twitter he says its risk arb when asked about about his position in OCAT. So is he just buying shares and tendering them? It's a very slim spread to do this, I don't see how it is worth it on some of his buys to be honest.
So he is basically all out of ideas on how to make money in this current market or he just isn't divulging any bigger plans. I still hope its the latter.
While I agree that if the offer fails that the share price will fall back to $4-6 range, the current expectation is a raised bid or new bidder at a higher price. Usually the price of stocks when an offer is made isn't as close to the offer price as OCAT has been trading for, it was even ABOVE the offer price for a couple of days which clearly indicates the expectation of a revised or new bid.
Now we have a wildcard in Gabelli here buying across his multiple funds for clients, I just hope the "client(s)" aren't Astellas themselves. If it is then they will get their 50%, if it isn't it isn't worth it for him nor his clients to attempt to arbitrage this, it's just peanuts compared to the money at risk.
I have not, and will not, tender my shares at this offer (and I am one of the people that have a decent profit from this as my average price is about $5). Even if I get my way and the deal falls through and OCAT goes backrupt in the future and I get nothing I CANNOT tender my shares for this absurd price when I know the RPE therapy has basically cured people with no safety concerns in PHASE ONE!!
Reject this deal and clean house in management and board and start anew. This company survived much worse before without having the promise it has now. I hope this would be Gabelli's goal, but his goal is unknown because like I said we don't know who he is buying for.
Again who cares, you idiots sold the company for $8.50 a share! #Do_Not_Tender
GE and T is not a good comparison Tradevestor. GE had their hands in many different lines of business and the finance wing had gotten too large. It was so large that investors should have considered them more as a bank than a multinational manufacturer! It appears they learned their lesson on finance though.
But T is strictly communications. Regardless of the economic climate in our modern world people need their cell phones, internet, television, and yes the NFL (exclusive DTV package!). People do not need new refrigerators, dishwashers, stoves, MRI machines, car and plane parts, etc. all too often and especially not when the economy craters.
We know there is no safety issues for 4 years as the latest time for any patient. Those patients that had vision gains still have those gains persist. What more do you need to show to come to the conclusion that phase 1 was wildly successful?
If phase 2 data comes in very positive like it did in phase 1 then the price should remain steady if not breach $10, but if no info is provided I would think the price would lose some ground until results are released. I am one of the ones that did not tender, and I implore others to not tender or rescind their tender if they did tender. $8.50 a share for this company is theft and it is obvious Wotton wanted a quick sale to cash out and did not know how to value the company at this stage.
Long OCAT shares, short OCAT Feb 19 2016 $10 Calls
I believe the FCF savings of decreasing US capex plus DTV FCF more than offsets any capex they need for latam. The network is in place in latam too remember it just needs upgrades. T also doesn't need to be #1 in latam just a solid number #3. Over (long) time I think they can get closer to #2.
I expected and am happy with the 1 cent/q increase. T management is conservative. With that said I do expect 2 cent/q next time they raise, and around a nickel/q raise in 2017. By then DTV is fully integrated, capex has been coming down, and its 2 years to improve latam network and gain some subscribers. It isn't just about DTV, latam is a growth market for T.
Management knows what the investors expect, eventually, after all these acquisitions, just give them more time.
It's very possible we get the 2 cent/q increase, but I think T is conservative this year and sticks with its standard 1 cent/q increase, with 2 cent/q next year, but we could be looking at larger increases by 2017 (possibly 4-5 cents/q) with DTV fully integrated and any subscriber gains in Latam.
Long T
Who cares now, you gave away the company for $8.50/share you jerks! I hope other shareholders are like me and do not tender their shares, the 90% mark is missed, deal falls through and Wotton gets canned.
I agree and DRIP T. Wonderful company in an industry where there are enormous costs to be competitive. I also believe growing in the right areas (ie cable & international). $4.4 earnings with a pe of 10 puts us at $44 for 33% upside. Any larger pe expansion factoring in the growth areas &/or a growing dividend and we're looking at a stock that should probably be in the $50s by end of decade.