Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Ryan Pollack  

View Ryan Pollack's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Ocata And An Early Stage Biotech Valuation Method [View article]
    Yup. That was what I was saying before a worldwide number on this is like nothing any of us has seen before and its actually A GROWTH OPPORTUNITY until the world population peaks....eventually. But that's a different scientific discussion.
    Jul 23, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocata And An Early Stage Biotech Valuation Method [View article]
    Get ready for many many comments for the rest of the week. My two cents.

    "However, all of those companies got their large market caps after they were making loads of money, and it took years of phenomenal growth. So even if OCAT gets there, it should be obvious that it might not have an impact on today's share price."

    The above is just wrong. Biotechs/Pharmas for the vast majority move very quickly upon FDA approval. Factor in that Dry AMD and SMD have no treatments and a FDA approval makes Ocata's therapy standard of care which any other future therapies have to beat to get approval, plus the standard 7-10 years exclusive selling of said product, and you can see why these companies gap up huge (or down) upon success or failure. The question is if (after FDA approval) will they build on success or misprice their therapy like DNDN did. Which brings me to your $10,000 price tag.

    First it should be noted that Ocata has stated they will charge per eye. So some patients have 1 eye effected others both eye. So any total sales should probably be multiplied by 1.5 as opposed to 1. I also think your number of 5% of people with these diseases would want the treatment is ludicrously low. Also stated in the past, and this kind of worries me, I believe Ocata mentioned a $100,000 price tag per eye. As I can see why they would want to charge that since curing blindness means less people on disability and cost savings for the gov't and also probably saves on insurance in the long term I think that price is aggressive although not absurd for their treatment as opposed to the same price DNDN put on their therapy which in the end in my opinion does squat if you think about it.

    You also only focused on the US when you should be focusing on worldwide market since Ocata has trials in EU and Asia. And if RPE cells are really able to help treat another 200 eye diseases that Ocata claims then my god. The company would theoretically have less expenses to bring other trials to fruition since they already know how to make and manufacture RPE cells and would not need new research on that aspect of the pipeline.

    What my opinion is on your price target of basically $7.50 - $20 is extremely low for an approved product (you didn't really make clear if this range should be its valuation after an approved product or that this range represents its fair value now).

    In the end this only has two valuations for this company. Either $0 or this therapy would just absolutely destroy lipitor's record. In which case the true value of this would be so mind boggling high that we cannot wrap our heads around the number because there haven't been many stocks that have reached that price (without splits).

    Long OCAT
    Jul 22, 2015. 09:35 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does My 5.8% Yield Portfolio Have Ideas That You Should Steal? (A Portfolio Review) [View article]
    "Dividend growth investing isn't about beating the market or worrying about selling high. People may want to make it so, but it isn't designed to do that if done correctly."

    This is correct, however, for me personally I think I can have my cake an eat it too! By that I mean I always have about 3-10 DGI stocks on my watch list to establish a new position when free cash is available, but I won't just buy just to buy I will wait for them to be on sale as this way I get the DGI and capital appreciation in the long run, and when I feel something is cheap enough I go for it and it stays in my portfolio for a long while, if not, hopefully forever and along that ride use the DRIP. The drawback to this is vast patience, and constant research is required. Most I understand do not have the time or will or both to try it. But it works for me. I've had nice DGI plus decent to great capital gains on ADM, T, CSCO, NCT (which produced spin-offs NRZ and SNR that I still hold), just to name a few. I guess you can call it deep DGI value investing and not really 'growth', but it looks like growth in your portfolio if you can constantly keep a watch list and wait until one of those stocks you want is trading at a ridiculous valuation.
    Jul 10, 2015. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does My 5.8% Yield Portfolio Have Ideas That You Should Steal? (A Portfolio Review) [View article]
    If I am not mistaken I believe if its Roth accounts then no need to worry about any tax correct?
    Jul 9, 2015. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does My 5.8% Yield Portfolio Have Ideas That You Should Steal? (A Portfolio Review) [View article]
    Nice overall portfolio and nice avg portfolio yield. One suggestion if I may? The way you separated the investments could be better and help you see your diversification better in my opinion.

    Example your Commodity and Other Dividend total are not needed and too broad. In the other dividend section while they all may be dividend stocks pharma is different from telecom which is different from consumer discretionary which is different than agriculture. Splitting that up would really give you a better sense of your true diversification. Which means you could pretty much do the same for the commodity portion as that is a list of energy and agriculture really.

    And what do you define as Venture? I wouldn't consider Citigroup or Apple etc venture stocks if venture means what I think it means here.

    Not to take away from your article and certainly not your portfolio, you seem to be doing well, but organizing the categories of your portfolio better might show you that you really have 40% in oil as opposed to 28% let's say and you might think 40% oil is too much and trim there and allocate to an underweight sector.

    I do the same thing with my and some family and friends' portfolios. A personal example of some years back I was looking over my uncle's portfolio and he had 15% gold at the time cause he caught gold's bull market. I found going through his mutual funds, a Canada fund in particular, was allocated 10% in gold. So he unknowingly had about 21% gold instead of the 15% he thought. I convinced him that day to cut the gold which he did to 3%. Which happened to be near the top in gold. So by going through everything he found he wasn't as diversified as he thought, i was able to lock in 18% of his gold profits near the top which saved him big paper losses, and he had free money to invest at the beginning of this current bull market and caught those gains too.
    Jul 8, 2015. 12:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So, You'll Switch To Dividend Growth Investing After You Have Your Millions, Eh? [View article]

    Started with growth first based on the article's premise. Regardless of which strategy you commit too (although who says you have to commit fully to either?) its different research needed between growth and DGI. For me personally I think the more intense research is in DGI, and you can't just switch from growth to DGI in short order.
    Jul 8, 2015. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So, You'll Switch To Dividend Growth Investing After You Have Your Millions, Eh? [View article]
    Concise, yet good article. A huge detriment to trying to do growth for let's say 40 years then switching to DGI overnight is education and retraining of one's mind. Let's face it if you are investing for growth for 40 years you are not going to know where to even begin for DGI. Which companies to get, are the dividends safe, are the stock prices overvalued, etc. because you're eschewing a different form of research in favor of another. The longer and sooner one does DGI the better they will be in the future and the better their research will be in the future. And like the author said the average guy (maybe not so much the people on here as they're likely more prepared) are going to have trouble changing their entire allocation on a six-seven figure portfolio, that has to be done gradually.

    Doesn't mean you have to do one totally over the other. I myself do DGI for probably about 85% of my retirement portfolio, but that other 15% I won't shy away from growth if I see a severely misunderstood, mispriced, cheap company. And it also doesn't mean that your DGI stocks won't give you gains if you're savvy enough to get them cheap enough. Best to have a little of both worlds so to speak.
    Jul 8, 2015. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Contributors And Commenters Pick The Best Dividend Growers For The Next 5 Years [View article]

    The purchase of DirecTV and the expansion into Mexico and LATAM will provide increased cf and earnings, plus there should be a reduction in CAPEX even with T needing to build-out the network in Mexico. In 2017 I owuld expect T dividend increases to be more then the 2%ish that we have been receiving, but I also agree that we won't be in double digits, but then again 2% isn't that high of a number to improve upon.

    But overall T is undervalued and its dividend at worst is safe. My yield on cost is ~7.8%. What other 'safe' investment is going to get you that?

    Long T; short T 37 strike july 24 calls
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Contributors And Commenters Pick The Best Dividend Growers For The Next 5 Years [View article]
    My top dividend growers that I am long each of would be CSCO, ADM, NRZ and SNR.

    CSCO: over $54 billion in cash/short-term investments as of last Q; Dividends paid was only ~30.5% of operating cash flow. CAGR of dividends since instituted in 2011 is ~36.8%

    ADM: over $6 billion in cash/short-term investments as of last Q; Operating cash flow did not cover dividends last quarter due to one time events, but for the last year (2014) dividends paid was only ~12.6% of operating cash flow. Been more committed to raising dividends the last 3 years. CAGR of dividends since 2013 is ~13.8%.

    NRZ and SNR were spinoffs from NCT. NRZ is lumped with mREITS but its mostly involved in MSR I believe about 90% of revenue is from that which is a hedge on rising interest rates. Has had some special dividends in the past when it was first spun off, but I believe going forward those would be replaced with higher standard increases to the regular dividend. Recently raised its dividend from .38/q to .45/q. SNR is a senior living REIT with only about 3 quarters to its history and just did a secondary to purchase more senior living facilities to their portfolio. Brad Thomas just had a nice article on SNR recently. So its been disrespected in my opinion, however, they recently increased the dividend from .23/q to .26/q and senior healthcare to me is a good growth industry for the next 30 years at least.

    Again for disclosure I am long CSCO, ADM, NRZ and SNR. Also short calls on ADM the 55 strike for July 17 2015 and on NRZ the 20 strike for Aug 21 2015.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocata Therapeutics Announces Positive Results Reported in a Late Breaking Abstract at the Annual Meeting of the International Society for Stem Cell Research [View article]
    Nice PR coupled with exposure of opening NASDAQ today. Love the last paragraph and some of the key words.

    "This late breaking abstract presented at the leading stem cell meeting is indicative of the significance and importance of our new potential breakthrough treatments for these disabling diseases where there is no cure available today, said Paul K. Wotton, Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer. We now look forward to the planned initiation of our Phase 2 safety study in dry AMD and our pivotal study in SMD."
    Jun 24, 2015. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Residential: Buy The Dip? [View article]
    NRZ been a winner even after secondaries. The yield, management of the assets, the inversion to interest rates, and the purchasing of their main competitor should make this a winner. I still believe we get into the 20s before year end.

    Long NRZ
    Jun 10, 2015. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lighthouse Bank's Growing Dividend Is Worth A Look [View article]
    Thanks for the speedy reply! I like the set it and forget it ones myself doing DGI philosophy, but I do not shy away from a stock that has deep value and potential growth in lieu of a current dividend. I did see they issued some stock dividends in the past, now that makes sense as they were allowed to do that instead of cash until earlier this year.
    Jun 10, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lighthouse Bank's Growing Dividend Is Worth A Look [View article]
    Nice article on a name I'm sure most are not aware of. You piqued my interest in this stock and am putting it on my personal watch list. Some questions though. The dividend paid was a special dividend.
    Are they instituting a regular quarterly dividend? Any desire to be listed on an exchange even though they are currently microcap? How strict are their lending standards? It is pretty amazing to have only one non-performing loan in the bank's history when they were founded at the absolute worst time and in one of the hardest hit states for real estate. I like their mentality for a safety cushion, but being too strict in lending could hinder their growth.
    Jun 10, 2015. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CBS, AT&T tensely heading toward contract wire [View news story]
    Only thing CBS has of any value viewing wise is the NFL, but T will get all of the games via DirecTV Sunday Ticket. T has huge leverage over CBS and will make them sweat.

    Long T
    Jun 9, 2015. 08:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Has A Significant Growth Opportunity Ahead [View article]
    T's strategy into Mexico and Latam is more than just acquiring new customers it is also an under the radar US play. Hispanics are fastest growing segment of the US population. T will be able to have packages and cross border calling much cheaper than their competitors. The people that have immigrated here have people back home I'm sure they would like to call once in a while. T will get them and their family as customers. Plus Mexico seems to be thrilled to have anyone come in the telecom space to compete with Carlos Slim. With T they have an instant, legit competitor to turn the monopoly into at least a duopoly. I think these moves by T are genius and being overlooked by the market. In the mean time I get 6% (my avg. cost is lower than today's prices) and to continue to DRIP on the cheap. Market will catch up sooner or later and value properly imo. I'm long for the very long-term with T.
    May 29, 2015. 01:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment