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Ryan Schroeder  

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  • PepsiCo Looks Like It Is Heading Lower [View article]
    Josh - I disagree with your statement that organic revenue doesn't matter. Organic revenue gives you a great picture of the overall health of a company. You fall into a short term thinking trap when you put blinders on and only looks at earnings after they are translated to the US dollar. For a company that sells Consumer Staples, organic revenue is key. PepsiCo was able to increase volume and price this quarter, which is a combo that is hard to beat.

    If you are worried about short term earnings depression due to the strong dollar you shouldn't be in any names that do a lot of business outside the US. Unfortunately that severely limits the pool of quality companies you can buy. And then you have no margin of safety if the US dollar does weaken.
    Oct 8, 2015. 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PepsiCo beats by $0.08, beats on revenue [View news story]
    @positivethoughts - The decline in revenue is due to unfavorable currency translations. Organic revenue is actually up 5%, hence the strong performance pre-market.
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conoco: Get Ready For An Extended Dividend Freeze [View article]
    Great Article Tim,

    It seems like a lot of commenters are having a mental disconnect about where dividends come from. Yes, a company can pay a high dividend by talking on debt, but eventually those dividends need to come out of profits.

    A lot depends on how long oil stays below $70-80. If COP is break-even to running in the red at $60 and below, then they will need to continue to take on debt to fund the dividend. The more debt they take on now, the longer it will take them to recover once the price of oil starts going back up (add this to the fact that interest rates will probably start rising and it's a double whammy). The longer relatively low oil lasts, the more it compounds this effect. If it lasts too long there is a point where the prudent thing is to cut the dividend instead of sacrificing the capex and thus the reserve replacement ratio.

    Also Tim never said you should be selling COP, just that XOM and CVX are better options right now. And from a current and future profitability stand point he is right.
    May 21, 2015. 08:47 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple gets target hikes, Icahn praise after FQ2 beat [View news story]
    In OPs defense, while the technical Law of Large Numbers deals with probability, the fact that the bigger a company gets the harder it is to maintain growth rate is generally referred to as the Law of Large numbers as well.
    Apr 28, 2015. 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Exxon Here And Forget About It [View article]
    That data is pulled by looking at changes in 13-Fs. If Buffett received an exception to not report his XOM holding this 13-F, then the delta makes it look like he sold everything.

    He did the same thing Deere and Company (DE) last year. It looked like he sold everything because DE no longer showed up in his 13-F. He then later filed an amended 13-F and we learned instead of selling his entire DE stake, he actually nearly doubled it.

    I'm buying XOM below $90. We may see a "Buffett didn't actually sell" spike. Also, either way XOM is a great long term hold.
    Feb 24, 2015. 03:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Exxon Here And Forget About It [View article]
    It's not 100% certain that Warren Buffett sold his Exxon stake. It' possible (and I'd argue likely) that he has asked the SEC for an exception to not disclose his stake because he is significantly adding to it.
    Feb 24, 2015. 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks launches rare coffee subscription service [View news story]
    I'm guessing that is 8.8-ounces of beans. Ballpark that will give you around 16 cups of coffee. So less than two bucks for a cup. Not bad considering it is Starbucks.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook 2015: 'It's Déjà Vu All Over Again' [View article]
    Good Read Jason,

    Like baseball, investing is 90% mental. I just need to figure out what the other half is...
    Feb 16, 2015. 09:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bearish On Coke [View article]
    EW - I think Coke is on the right track here with Fairlife. Niche product or not consumer will pay more for a healthier product. And specialty milk is a high growth area right now. Anything that diversifies them away from their CSD core is a positive. Also increased calcium and protein is definitely a tangible benefit.
    Overall I enjoyed your analysis and agree that either way Fairlife won't be making much impact in the next few years.
    Feb 12, 2015. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Apple just turned in the most profitable quarter in history.
    Jan 27, 2015. 04:42 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PepsiCo's Operational Objectives Are Driven By Cost-Cutting And Healthier Hydration Trends [View article]

    The stevia product is Pepsi True and it is available on Ignore the 1 star rating, as it got trolled pretty hard when it came out. I've tried it and am a fan.
    Jan 14, 2015. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Take On Why Timing The Market Does Not Work [View article]
    David. Double check your yield number on BUD. They pay semi-annual dividends but the first payment is larger than the second. I discuss that in my BUD article here:
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling's Results Are Much Stronger Than The Market Reaction To Them Indicates [View article]
    The problem with buying the company is you assume the debt. which means you just assumed $2.5 billion in debt. This is the ultimate high-risk/high-reward stock. You are basically betting on whether or not NADL can get the Rosneft deal done or find other work for their rigs. Idle rigs and enormous debt are not a good combination.

    Long SDRL
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With 'Waiting For A Lower Price' [View article]
    "If you look back at history, you will see that the best time to buy stocks is whenever the S&P 500 is in the range of 20% to 50% off its all time high."

    If you follow this logic, you wouldn't have been able to buy any stock in the last 4 years, hence missing out on 4 years of dividends and capital returns. That's the author's point in this article, and it's a good one.

    At the same time, I'm definitely not buying any index funds at the current market levels, but there are plenty of individual stocks that are fairly valued or undervalued (see integrated oil majors).
    Dec 4, 2014. 02:11 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing America's 3 Largest Water Utilities [View article]
    Great Article Joseph. Water utilities tend to not get much notice as they are not "exciting" stocks. I personally have a $100/month drip with Aqua America. Definitely a great slow and steady stock. Sit back, reinvest the dividends, and add more every month and it's surprising how fast this "boring" stock grows. Nick DeBenedictis has been managing water utilities forever and has a long track record of success in all sorts of business climates.
    Nov 18, 2014. 08:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment