Xinyuan Real Estate Corporation Could Be The Next 5 To 10 Bagger [View article]
I decided to close my position at 5.85, take profits, and re-evaluate on Monday. Doing some research on China's ghost-cities and seeing that XIN builds in those cities scared me on this one.
Blow-Out Quarter Confirms Xinyuan Real Estate On The Right Track [View article]
Agreed. This company has been kept down because of (understandable) Chinese small cap fears. I think the fear is creating a great buying opportunity. Since it owns property in US as well I am much more comfortable with this stock than most US listed China stocks. That plus the fact it pays a healthy and increasing dividend (still 4% yield at current levels) make it a steal anywhere below $10.
Obvious risk still remains that it is a Chinese small cap and could go to $0 at any second (see LPH). Expect some wild swings with this one, but in the long run I think this is one of the best China plays out there.
Why Apple's P/E Multiple Is An Anomaly [View article]
Great article Ray. Nice to see someone take a sound, mathematical (not emotional) approach to valuing Apple. This is definitely an article I will be adding to my investing toolbox.
As you mentioned these are conservative valuation estimates. Would be interested in seeing a more aggressive valuation, and one that includes the discounted value of future dividends. I expect the results would be nothing short of astonishing.
I am long Apple and intend to go longer after the probable stock price hit coming later today/tomorrow if Apple does not announce a new product or dividend increase.
Johnson Controls Shares Look Topped Out And Ready For A Pullback To $26 [View article]
JCI forward P/E of 12. 2014 earnings growth projected to be 21%.
Sources: Scottrade and Dailyfinance.com.
I would love a pullback to $26 so I could but more, but I'd say $36 is much more likely. My price target is $37.80 (12x projected 2014 earnings), although if JCI can continue the growth story in 2015 and beyond, it certainly warrants a higher valuation.
Why Apple Is A Short-Term Sell Based On David Einhorn's Plan [View article]
"If Apple were to issue preferred stock to Apple's current shareholders, and pay out $10 billion in dividends, then that preferred stock might actually be worth as much as $200 billion."
First, Einhorn cannot "force" Apple into issuing preferred shares. Cook has come out adamantly against it, and as long as he is CEO there will be no preferred issued.
Second, how did you come up with "$200 billion if they pay out $10 billion in dividends?" Perhaps you can share your valuation model.
Lastly, I'd argue Apple is a buy now, but will be a better buy later this week when investors will inevitably be disappointed by the lack of a (sizeable) dividend raise on Wednesday. It appears to me a lot of people are expecting them to double the dividend, and that's just not going to happen (IMHO).
"Samsung Momentum Begs An Answer From Apple" - that's the title of a fresh note from Barclays' Ben Reitzes, who was very bullish when Apple (AAPL -0.9%) was around $700. Samsung's (SSNLF.PK) Galaxy S IV is expected to be announced on March 14, with European/Asian sales commencing in April, and the launch will likely be accompanied by a price cut for the S III, which will allow Samsung to better compete on price. Reitzes thinks both a cheaper iPhone and a bigger iPhone are needed. (earlier) [View news story]
Activision Blizzard: Why Earnings Will Decline [View article]
Me and Matt have gone back and forth on ATVI in the past, but he does make some good points. Where we disagree is on ATVI's continued ability to innovate and lead the video game industry. I just closed a 3-year long on Friday for a modest gain. The market hates this stock, which is why I finally decided to sell out.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Exelon [View article]
You still have never addressed my original issue with your reply to MWinMd. Instead you chose to attack me personally. How's that mature?
If your comment wasn't so defensive and full of sarcastic comments towards a reader's genuine curiosity, I wouldn't have bothered posting anything in the first place. It just bother's me when people think they are better than/their opinion counts more than everyone else just b/c they have something published here..
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Exelon [View article]
I think threatening to sue people over their input in a poll is immature now, and in a few years when I've gained more experience and maturity, I will still think threatening to sue people over there input in a poll in immature.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Exelon [View article]
rofl. This shows what a joke the whisper number is:
"Can you come to our site and post 'big loss' for a company? Sure. Will that number be accepted? Maybe, maybe not (and in doing so you're violating our terms of site use and may end up with a lawsuit)"
Now we are suing people for their poll answers. Good luck with that. I hope SA bans this garbage.
Activision Blizzard: Why Earnings Will Decline [View article]
Mathias, I am slightly curious. This is your 2nd negative article on ATVI in the past four months, yet you aren't short the stock. Are you considering a short position?
Activision Blizzard: Why Earnings Will Decline [View article]
The basis of your argument is I disagree and that its up for interpretation... Hard to come up with a counter point to that.
And as to any game getting 10M subscribers, there's an easy macro argument to that. When WOW came out world population was <6 billion. Not its over 7 billion. When you look and # of people in the world with internet then and now, then increase is absurd. As world population grows and the world modernizes, markets will continue increasing. I'd be shocked if Titan doesn't get 10M subscribers when it come out (if it does indeed turn out to be on a subscription basis as expected).
Also - LOL has over 30 million users.. it is F2P, but clearly demonstrates that high numbers of subscribers isn't out of the question.
Activision Blizzard: Why Earnings Will Decline [View article]
I agree with arguments 1 - 3. Your big miss is argument 4. You just say its unlikely Titan will be as successful. Mean-reversion theory doesn't apply to video games. The more people that play, the more people have friends that play, and the more people that have friends play, the more people that play, ad infinitum. It's the social media theory, and the reason Facebook has as many users as it does and MySpace is dead.
A better argument would be that F2P games like GW2 will cannibalize MMORPGs and that the genre will not be popular going forward.
Also, not mentioning Call of Duty's successor, slated for 2014/2015, which is being developed by Bungie, who created CODs only real competitor in terms of sales, Halo, (Battlefield is actually a very good game as well, just never had the sales #'s), seems like a miss.
Plus the fact that Vivendi is trying to unload its stake in ATVI is a big wild card. Massive share buy-back or outright buyout potential could be big-time catalyst for the stock.
Xinyuan Real Estate Corporation Could Be The Next 5 To 10 Bagger [View article]
Xinyuan Real Estate Corporation Could Be The Next 5 To 10 Bagger [View article]
Any concern about the 60-minutes piece on the China housing bubble this Sunday? I am long XIN and considering taking profits today.
Blow-Out Quarter Confirms Xinyuan Real Estate On The Right Track [View article]
How much money did you make from shorting LPH?
Blow-Out Quarter Confirms Xinyuan Real Estate On The Right Track [View article]
Obvious risk still remains that it is a Chinese small cap and could go to $0 at any second (see LPH). Expect some wild swings with this one, but in the long run I think this is one of the best China plays out there.
Why Apple's P/E Multiple Is An Anomaly [View article]
As you mentioned these are conservative valuation estimates. Would be interested in seeing a more aggressive valuation, and one that includes the discounted value of future dividends. I expect the results would be nothing short of astonishing.
I am long Apple and intend to go longer after the probable stock price hit coming later today/tomorrow if Apple does not announce a new product or dividend increase.
Johnson Controls Shares Look Topped Out And Ready For A Pullback To $26 [View article]
Sources: Scottrade and Dailyfinance.com.
I would love a pullback to $26 so I could but more, but I'd say $36 is much more likely. My price target is $37.80 (12x projected 2014 earnings), although if JCI can continue the growth story in 2015 and beyond, it certainly warrants a higher valuation.
Long JCI
Why Apple Is A Short-Term Sell Based On David Einhorn's Plan [View article]
First, Einhorn cannot "force" Apple into issuing preferred shares. Cook has come out adamantly against it, and as long as he is CEO there will be no preferred issued.
Second, how did you come up with "$200 billion if they pay out $10 billion in dividends?" Perhaps you can share your valuation model.
Lastly, I'd argue Apple is a buy now, but will be a better buy later this week when investors will inevitably be disappointed by the lack of a (sizeable) dividend raise on Wednesday. It appears to me a lot of people are expecting them to double the dividend, and that's just not going to happen (IMHO).
"Samsung Momentum Begs An Answer From Apple" - that's the title of a fresh note from Barclays' Ben Reitzes, who was very bullish when Apple (AAPL -0.9%) was around $700. Samsung's (SSNLF.PK) Galaxy S IV is expected to be announced on March 14, with European/Asian sales commencing in April, and the launch will likely be accompanied by a price cut for the S III, which will allow Samsung to better compete on price. Reitzes thinks both a cheaper iPhone and a bigger iPhone are needed. (earlier) [View news story]
Activision Blizzard: Why Earnings Will Decline [View article]
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Exelon [View article]
If your comment wasn't so defensive and full of sarcastic comments towards a reader's genuine curiosity, I wouldn't have bothered posting anything in the first place. It just bother's me when people think they are better than/their opinion counts more than everyone else just b/c they have something published here..
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Exelon [View article]
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Exelon [View article]
"Can you come to our site and post 'big loss' for a company? Sure. Will that number be accepted? Maybe, maybe not (and in doing so you're violating our terms of site use and may end up with a lawsuit)"
Now we are suing people for their poll answers. Good luck with that. I hope SA bans this garbage.
Activision Blizzard: Why Earnings Will Decline [View article]
Activision Blizzard: Why Earnings Will Decline [View article]
And as to any game getting 10M subscribers, there's an easy macro argument to that. When WOW came out world population was <6 billion. Not its over 7 billion. When you look and # of people in the world with internet then and now, then increase is absurd. As world population grows and the world modernizes, markets will continue increasing. I'd be shocked if Titan doesn't get 10M subscribers when it come out (if it does indeed turn out to be on a subscription basis as expected).
Also - LOL has over 30 million users.. it is F2P, but clearly demonstrates that high numbers of subscribers isn't out of the question.
Activision Blizzard: Why Earnings Will Decline [View article]
A better argument would be that F2P games like GW2 will cannibalize MMORPGs and that the genre will not be popular going forward.
Also, not mentioning Call of Duty's successor, slated for 2014/2015, which is being developed by Bungie, who created CODs only real competitor in terms of sales, Halo, (Battlefield is actually a very good game as well, just never had the sales #'s), seems like a miss.
Plus the fact that Vivendi is trying to unload its stake in ATVI is a big wild card. Massive share buy-back or outright buyout potential could be big-time catalyst for the stock.