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Ryan Schroeder

 
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  • Apple's Valuation Is Not Rational [View article]
    globalbusy - Thanks for reading. They announced in the earnings call they would be returning approximately 30 billion per year so I used that for my model . You are correct, if they used more money to buy back shares this year it would be more effective at the assumed prices.
    Apr 30, 2013. 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation Is Not Rational [View article]
    mbogosi - This was just a pure earnings valuation model. It does not take into account any balance sheet items. But the cash hoard definitely adds an extra margin of safety to the investment.
    Apr 29, 2013. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Dividend Reinvestment Is The Right Decision [View article]
    David

    Thanks for commenting. Whenever I have an invest-able amount of money built up (around 1k) I like to go ahead and invest it rather than sit on it. I know I may miss out on opportunities by not keeping a cash pile available for pullbacks, but this way I don't have to worry about market timing and I don't have to root for a pullback so I can get fully invested.

    Some companies I like at current levels include CVX, APPL, JNJ, BUD, and AFL.
    Apr 27, 2013. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Dividend Reinvestment Is The Right Decision [View article]
    thenoffya

    Thanks for your comment. Both are very good points. I feel that I do have an advantage over most investors because of my personal experience and the fact that most individual investors under-perform the market as a whole over time.

    Two your second point... I currently own shares of GIS. they are up about 30% since I purchased them. I probably wouldn't allocate new capital toward GIS at current prices, but considering their track record, I feel like their ability to generate above average returns over a long period of time still makes them a solid investment. Finding investments that I don't need to think about regardless of the short-term performance of the stock price is one of my highest priorities.
    Apr 25, 2013. 12:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Just Invested In Shareholders [View article]
    "the number of shares outstanding increases as dividends are reinvested."

    The shares outstanding would only increase with dividends if Apple paid stock dividends, which they don't. Generally the main reason for the increase is employee/management stock options or warrants...
    Apr 24, 2013. 08:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Apple Repurchase Shares? [View article]
    Djee

    After the following overhaul's:

    -added 10mil dilutive shares/year
    -assumed share-price of $400 for 2013, then increasing $100 each year.
    -assumed dividend increase of 15% per year

    I came up with 825 million shares outstanding at the end of 2015 under the current plan.

    I will be writing a follow-up article that uses this number, plus estimates for 2016 to come up with a more accurate fair value for Apple.
    Apr 23, 2013. 09:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    Ross, I strongly disagree. Simplified: Companies exist to generate earnings. Buybacks increase EPS. Check the link to the article I posted above to see what this will do for EPS. If a $50 billion buyback was executed this year and Net Income held steady, EPS would be over $50.00 for 2013. Pretty good.
    Apr 23, 2013. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    I wrote an article on Apple share buyback yesterday. Actually a very good thing for the future: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 23, 2013. 04:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is It Really Too Cheap To Ignore? [View article]
    Alternatively, they could uses their massive cash hoard to issue cheap debt and buy-back shares, making it a win-win for themselves and investors by massively boosting EPS. I wrote a piece about buyback possibilities here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 23, 2013. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Apple Repurchase Shares? [View article]
    Cagdas, Thanks for commenting. As I mentioned in the article, all these figures were calculated using strict PE analysis. I took possible Net Income scenarios, then applied potential total shares outstanding, then gave the EPS result a PE based on the growth to determine share price. For the scenario you are referring to, the perpetual negative NI growth warranted a PE of 5.

    I tend to agree with you that $180 is not realistic, even for 2016. My point for the article was to highlight how undervalued Apple is by conventional earning valuation standards, even if you take out you all of Apple's other assets.
    Apr 23, 2013. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Already (Essentially) A Private Company [View article]
    I agree the buyback needs to be upped. Here's an article I wrote on the potential EPS boosts from different levels of buybacks: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 22, 2013. 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Q1 earnings: Comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% Y/Y was hurt by fewer trading days this year. Operating margin of 26.3% off 110 bps from a year ago. Food costs at 33% of revenue up 80 bps. Opened 48 restaurants during Q1. Management expects 165-180 new restaurant openings for all 2013 and flat-low single digit comparable sales. Earnings call started at 4:30 ET. Shares +5.7% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Atkins - Not a very good argument. "Priced too high" is very vague. Try using facts:

    Chipotle Steak Burrito 7.10 after tax.
    Taco Bell Cantina Steak burrito 6.50 after tax.

    If you compare Chipotle to the cost of eating at home, maybe, but none of its competitors offer a similar product at a significantly cheaper price.
    Apr 18, 2013. 09:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Keep Apple In Their Portfolios [View article]
    Added more at 408. Also have a large buy order at 385 if it gets there. Patience will win out for long-term investors here. It's going to be a wild ride, but those who stay the course will be rewarded.
    Apr 17, 2013. 10:30 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: 4 Reasons Why This Stock Is A Strong Sell [View article]
    Here's a good reason to not care what this guy says. Over 1200 followers, but only following 1. Clearly doesn't care what anyone else thinks.
    Apr 9, 2013. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Hold 'Em Tournaments And Value Investing [View article]
    Chris

    I am an avid poker player as well as investor and have been wanting to write an article on the similarities for a long time, but have been too busy/lazy to get around to it. Great job with the article, I think you succeeded in covering the poker concepts well enough to be understood by non-poker players, but still in depth enough to not bore those of use who understand the game.

    You also may have motivated me to write an article (or two) expanding on the topic, because I believe there are a lot of lessons that are common to both areas.
    Apr 2, 2013. 02:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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