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Ryan Schroeder  

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  • Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]

    So, you are saying APPL is not a buy now b/c of "trend," but that when the trend changes you want to buy.

    So basically you are saying hold/sell at $420, but buy once it rallies to $500 (I'm not familiar with trend analysis, but I'm guessing a sizable upward move is needed to consider it a trend )?
    Mar 7, 2013. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]
    Ashraf - Nice article. It is very important to highlight that ANYONE can be wrong, no matter how solid their financial background our how "good" the idea is. It is my understanding that Zaky even missed out on Apple's big run-up in his bullish Apple fund b/c he was long bearish call spreads at the time, which further hurt his fund.

    I am long APPL at 510, 440, and 430, myself, and couldn't feel more comfortable with my investment. It is a pure dividend growth play. Even with declining earnings (and the most pessimistic of analysts are calling for flat earnings) AAPL could raise the dividend every year for the next decade without a sweat. The drop in share price doesn't bother me because I have no intention of selling my shares.
    Mar 7, 2013. 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Worth $265 [View article]
    That is exactly what I am disagreeing with. Dividends are an essential factor in the valuing of a stock. You even used a DCF valuation! Dividends are most certainly a cash flow!
    Mar 6, 2013. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Worth $265 [View article]
    I would honestly like to see an SA editor post an apology for letting this get published.

    This is the single most revolting statement I've ever read:

    "We know that dividends and similar handouts are not beneficial for the prices of listed companies. In practice, they are innocuous and only produce short-term relevance to a minority of shareholders."

    Here's comparing S&P to S&P without dividends:

    "Over the past decade, according to Standard & Poor's, the S&P 500 benchmark gained an annual average of just 0.72% without dividends. But with dividends included, the S&P's total return reached 2.81% annually." - WSJ

    Let's look at in another way (dividends vs dividends reinvested) and on a longer term scale:

    Annualized S&P returns w/ dividends from 1950 to 2013: 7.35%
    Annualized S&P returns w/ dividends reinvested from 1950 to 2013: 10.99%

    The article especially aggravates me due to the fact that myself and others have written legitimate articles on Apple that SA has declined to publish because "the information is not new or is common knowledge." Well this article certainly wasn't common knowledge... (which restores some of my faith in the SA community at least)
    Mar 6, 2013. 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Already (Essentially) A Private Company [View article]
    " The reason is that Apple has no interest in sending 'Buy' signals to the Street or doing share buy-backs to boost EPS."

    If they have no interest in doing share buy-backs, then why are they doing share buy-backs?
    Mar 5, 2013. 03:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Corporation Could Be The Next 5 To 10 Bagger [View article]
    The specific cause of the pullback is the Chinese govt's new requirement for higher down-payment. No way the author could see that coming. I got lucky and sold Friday b/c of research i did relating to the 60 minutes piece, but there was nothing new in the report itself.
    Mar 4, 2013. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Corporation Could Be The Next 5 To 10 Bagger [View article]
    I decided to close my position at 5.85, take profits, and re-evaluate on Monday. Doing some research on China's ghost-cities and seeing that XIN builds in those cities scared me on this one.
    Mar 1, 2013. 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Corporation Could Be The Next 5 To 10 Bagger [View article]

    Any concern about the 60-minutes piece on the China housing bubble this Sunday? I am long XIN and considering taking profits today.
    Mar 1, 2013. 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blow-Out Quarter Confirms Xinyuan Real Estate On The Right Track [View article]
    Unfortunately it's not quite that easy. You can only act on the information that is available. Hindsight is always 20-20...

    How much money did you make from shorting LPH?
    Feb 28, 2013. 04:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blow-Out Quarter Confirms Xinyuan Real Estate On The Right Track [View article]
    Agreed. This company has been kept down because of (understandable) Chinese small cap fears. I think the fear is creating a great buying opportunity. Since it owns property in US as well I am much more comfortable with this stock than most US listed China stocks. That plus the fact it pays a healthy and increasing dividend (still 4% yield at current levels) make it a steal anywhere below $10.

    Obvious risk still remains that it is a Chinese small cap and could go to $0 at any second (see LPH). Expect some wild swings with this one, but in the long run I think this is one of the best China plays out there.
    Feb 28, 2013. 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's P/E Multiple Is An Anomaly [View article]
    Great article Ray. Nice to see someone take a sound, mathematical (not emotional) approach to valuing Apple. This is definitely an article I will be adding to my investing toolbox.

    As you mentioned these are conservative valuation estimates. Would be interested in seeing a more aggressive valuation, and one that includes the discounted value of future dividends. I expect the results would be nothing short of astonishing.

    I am long Apple and intend to go longer after the probable stock price hit coming later today/tomorrow if Apple does not announce a new product or dividend increase.
    Feb 27, 2013. 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson Controls Shares Look Topped Out And Ready For A Pullback To $26 [View article]
    JCI forward P/E of 12. 2014 earnings growth projected to be 21%.

    Sources: Scottrade and

    I would love a pullback to $26 so I could but more, but I'd say $36 is much more likely. My price target is $37.80 (12x projected 2014 earnings), although if JCI can continue the growth story in 2015 and beyond, it certainly warrants a higher valuation.

    Long JCI
    Feb 27, 2013. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is A Short-Term Sell Based On David Einhorn's Plan [View article]
    "If Apple were to issue preferred stock to Apple's current shareholders, and pay out $10 billion in dividends, then that preferred stock might actually be worth as much as $200 billion."

    First, Einhorn cannot "force" Apple into issuing preferred shares. Cook has come out adamantly against it, and as long as he is CEO there will be no preferred issued.

    Second, how did you come up with "$200 billion if they pay out $10 billion in dividends?" Perhaps you can share your valuation model.

    Lastly, I'd argue Apple is a buy now, but will be a better buy later this week when investors will inevitably be disappointed by the lack of a (sizeable) dividend raise on Wednesday. It appears to me a lot of people are expecting them to double the dividend, and that's just not going to happen (IMHO).
    Feb 26, 2013. 11:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Samsung Momentum Begs An Answer From Apple" - that's the title of a fresh note from Barclays' Ben Reitzes, who was very bullish when Apple (AAPL -0.9%) was around $700. Samsung's (SSNLF.PK) Galaxy S IV is expected to be announced on March 14, with European/Asian sales commencing in April, and the launch will likely be accompanied by a price cut for the S III, which will allow Samsung to better compete on price. Reitzes thinks both a cheaper iPhone and a bigger iPhone are needed. (earlier[View news story]
    Did iPhone sales go up or down last quarter?
    Feb 19, 2013. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision Blizzard: Why Earnings Will Decline [View article]
    Me and Matt have gone back and forth on ATVI in the past, but he does make some good points. Where we disagree is on ATVI's continued ability to innovate and lead the video game industry. I just closed a 3-year long on Friday for a modest gain. The market hates this stock, which is why I finally decided to sell out.
    Feb 11, 2013. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment