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Ryan Schroeder

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  • Keep Your Dividend Champions In A Roth IRA [View article]
    While it is possible Congress could tax Roth IRA earnings in the future, it is highly unlikely. The government has used Roth's for years to entice inviduals to save money for retirement and going back on the promise that money in a Roth will not be taxed would cause a major backlash.
    Jan 8, 2013. 05:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Success On Sale: Activision Blizzard [View article]
    Michael - Nice article. Let me throw this question out there before all the ATVI bears jump down your throat. What are your thoughts on comparisons of Skylands to Guitar hero? The relatively small age range this game attacts is somewhat of a concern to me.

    No matter how you look at it, WOW is dying. Fortunately I think ongoing Titan + WOW subscriptions will drive EPS in the medium-term. Unfortunately it is definitely a short-term drag on the stock.

    I personally believe that the real value of this company comes from its pipeline of future games and history of delivering blockbuster after blockbuster in an industry that is now dominated by blockbuster hits. This stock is a great long-term play and is selling and a major discount to the rest of the industry.

    Disclosure: I am long ATVI
    Jan 7, 2013. 02:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Is An Undervalued Growth Stock [View article]
    Christopher, here's my reasoning. Chipotle has a completely different business model than MCD, BK, etc. Cost is similar, true, but Chipotle is targeting a completely different group of people than traditional fast food chains. I like to think of Chipotle as the Whole Foods of casual dining. Everyone is not going to go there, but the people that do are extremely loyal. Young professionals, who are generally health-conscious, are their #1 demographic. Most of this group (myself included) rarely eat at MCD, BK, etc.. I would consider Chipotle's competitors to be places like Moe's Southwest Grill, Qdoba, and Crazy Bowls and Wraps (not sure if this last one is national). And in my humble opinion, Chipotle blows away the competition.
    Aug 23, 2012. 09:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Charge, STAG Looks More Like A Rhino Than A REIT [View article]
    Great analysis here Brad. I'm definitely looking to add REITs to my Roth at these levels. If you had to pick just one to invest in today, would you choose O or STAG?
    Aug 26, 2013. 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Just Invested In Shareholders [View article]
    "the number of shares outstanding increases as dividends are reinvested."

    The shares outstanding would only increase with dividends if Apple paid stock dividends, which they don't. Generally the main reason for the increase is employee/management stock options or warrants...
    Apr 24, 2013. 08:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Apple Repurchase Shares? [View article]

    After the following overhaul's:

    -added 10mil dilutive shares/year
    -assumed share-price of $400 for 2013, then increasing $100 each year.
    -assumed dividend increase of 15% per year

    I came up with 825 million shares outstanding at the end of 2015 under the current plan.

    I will be writing a follow-up article that uses this number, plus estimates for 2016 to come up with a more accurate fair value for Apple.
    Apr 23, 2013. 09:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Q1 earnings: Comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% Y/Y was hurt by fewer trading days this year. Operating margin of 26.3% off 110 bps from a year ago. Food costs at 33% of revenue up 80 bps. Opened 48 restaurants during Q1. Management expects 165-180 new restaurant openings for all 2013 and flat-low single digit comparable sales. Earnings call started at 4:30 ET. Shares +5.7% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Atkins - Not a very good argument. "Priced too high" is very vague. Try using facts:

    Chipotle Steak Burrito 7.10 after tax.
    Taco Bell Cantina Steak burrito 6.50 after tax.

    If you compare Chipotle to the cost of eating at home, maybe, but none of its competitors offer a similar product at a significantly cheaper price.
    Apr 18, 2013. 09:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Hold 'Em Tournaments And Value Investing [View article]

    I am an avid poker player as well as investor and have been wanting to write an article on the similarities for a long time, but have been too busy/lazy to get around to it. Great job with the article, I think you succeeded in covering the poker concepts well enough to be understood by non-poker players, but still in depth enough to not bore those of use who understand the game.

    You also may have motivated me to write an article (or two) expanding on the topic, because I believe there are a lot of lessons that are common to both areas.
    Apr 2, 2013. 02:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The "Fed put" stocks have enjoyed for the past four years will fade in H2 and send the S&P 500 below 1,400 by year's end, Wells Fargo's Gina Martin Adams believes. If the economy improves, expect the Fed to be more hard pressed in justifying near-zero interest rates and easing efforts; mere chatter about an unwind in 2014 will be enough to weigh on stocks. [View news story]
    Her argument is that an improving economy will send the stock market down. Makes sense...
    Mar 25, 2013. 07:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]
    Ashraf - Nice article. It is very important to highlight that ANYONE can be wrong, no matter how solid their financial background our how "good" the idea is. It is my understanding that Zaky even missed out on Apple's big run-up in his bullish Apple fund b/c he was long bearish call spreads at the time, which further hurt his fund.

    I am long APPL at 510, 440, and 430, myself, and couldn't feel more comfortable with my investment. It is a pure dividend growth play. Even with declining earnings (and the most pessimistic of analysts are calling for flat earnings) AAPL could raise the dividend every year for the next decade without a sweat. The drop in share price doesn't bother me because I have no intention of selling my shares.
    Mar 7, 2013. 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Worth $265 [View article]
    I would honestly like to see an SA editor post an apology for letting this get published.

    This is the single most revolting statement I've ever read:

    "We know that dividends and similar handouts are not beneficial for the prices of listed companies. In practice, they are innocuous and only produce short-term relevance to a minority of shareholders."

    Here's comparing S&P to S&P without dividends:

    "Over the past decade, according to Standard & Poor's, the S&P 500 benchmark gained an annual average of just 0.72% without dividends. But with dividends included, the S&P's total return reached 2.81% annually." - WSJ

    Let's look at in another way (dividends vs dividends reinvested) and on a longer term scale:

    Annualized S&P returns w/ dividends from 1950 to 2013: 7.35%
    Annualized S&P returns w/ dividends reinvested from 1950 to 2013: 10.99%

    The article especially aggravates me due to the fact that myself and others have written legitimate articles on Apple that SA has declined to publish because "the information is not new or is common knowledge." Well this article certainly wasn't common knowledge... (which restores some of my faith in the SA community at least)
    Mar 6, 2013. 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blow-Out Quarter Confirms Xinyuan Real Estate On The Right Track [View article]
    Unfortunately it's not quite that easy. You can only act on the information that is available. Hindsight is always 20-20...

    How much money did you make from shorting LPH?
    Feb 28, 2013. 04:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blow-Out Quarter Confirms Xinyuan Real Estate On The Right Track [View article]
    Agreed. This company has been kept down because of (understandable) Chinese small cap fears. I think the fear is creating a great buying opportunity. Since it owns property in US as well I am much more comfortable with this stock than most US listed China stocks. That plus the fact it pays a healthy and increasing dividend (still 4% yield at current levels) make it a steal anywhere below $10.

    Obvious risk still remains that it is a Chinese small cap and could go to $0 at any second (see LPH). Expect some wild swings with this one, but in the long run I think this is one of the best China plays out there.
    Feb 28, 2013. 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision Blizzard: Why Earnings Will Decline [View article]
    The basis of your argument is I disagree and that its up for interpretation... Hard to come up with a counter point to that.

    And as to any game getting 10M subscribers, there's an easy macro argument to that. When WOW came out world population was <6 billion. Not its over 7 billion. When you look and # of people in the world with internet then and now, then increase is absurd. As world population grows and the world modernizes, markets will continue increasing. I'd be shocked if Titan doesn't get 10M subscribers when it come out (if it does indeed turn out to be on a subscription basis as expected).

    Also - LOL has over 30 million users.. it is F2P, but clearly demonstrates that high numbers of subscribers isn't out of the question.
    Jan 31, 2013. 06:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Success On Sale: Activision Blizzard [View article]
    I'm guessing the reason they stopped the share buy-backs is to build cash for partial or full Vivendi buy-out.
    Jan 8, 2013. 04:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment