Seeking Alpha

Ryan Schroeder

 
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  • Please Be Cautious, Apple Bulls [View article]
    I wouldn't read anything into the layoffs. Eliminating redundant Beats positions (HR, finance, etc.)
    Aug 1 01:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Hit Apple's Last Two Quarters EPS Results: Here Are My December Quarter Projections [View article]
    When you hit EPS for APPL on the nose 2 quarters in a row, that's pretty impressive. If you don't promote yourself, why would you expect any one else to?
    Jan 27 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    It depends on your investing horizon and goals. My goal is to generate a reliable, diversified, and (most importantly) growing income stream. When I buy a company I generally have no intention of selling it unless something has fundamentaly changed since the time of my investment (lower growth, stagnating dividends, incompetent management, etc..). I have bought APPL recently with the expectation of 1-2 years of low to no growth followed by a consistent 8-12% 5 year earning growth rate (driven in part by buybacks). In addition to earnings growth I am expecting a 10% annual dividend growth, which considering their low payout ratio, is pretty conservative.

    If you are a short term investor, I'd agree APPL is not a stock you want a part of, long or short.
    Jun 27 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    It's hard for me to take your article seriously after reading your comments. I'm struggling to find one that isn't sarcastic or intended to put someone down.

    If you truly feel as strongly against Apple as you seem to, why don't you put your money where your mouth is and short the stock?
    Jun 26 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    I agree that for the short term there is nothing exciting about Apple the stock. However despite flatening/declining earnings and slowing revenue growth Apple the company is still expecting to earn over $38 billion in profits this year, and over $40 billion next year. That's pretty exciting to me.

    The funny thing is, the longer the stock price stays depressed now, the more value this generates for long-term shareholder as the company is able to take more shares off the market through their massive buckback program (the largest history) than they would if the price was higher.

    In the short term, all the factors you mentioned in the article may come in to play, but in the long term only P/E will. All else equal (I realize how broad and vague this statement is, but for the purpose of argument...) the success of an investment in the long term is going to come down to EPS growth and P/E compression or expansion. As long as you buy solid companies w/ high probability of future growth (even if it is only 8%-12%) at a P/E below historical norms, it is very difficult to make a poor investment.
    Jun 25 11:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation Is Not Rational [View article]
    Ffuzetti - It's an estimate for total share dilution.
    Apr 30 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation Is Not Rational [View article]
    globalbusy - Thanks for reading. They announced in the earnings call they would be returning approximately 30 billion per year so I used that for my model . You are correct, if they used more money to buy back shares this year it would be more effective at the assumed prices.
    Apr 30 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation Is Not Rational [View article]
    mbogosi - This was just a pure earnings valuation model. It does not take into account any balance sheet items. But the cash hoard definitely adds an extra margin of safety to the investment.
    Apr 29 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Just Invested In Shareholders [View article]
    "the number of shares outstanding increases as dividends are reinvested."

    The shares outstanding would only increase with dividends if Apple paid stock dividends, which they don't. Generally the main reason for the increase is employee/management stock options or warrants...
    Apr 24 08:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Apple Repurchase Shares? [View article]
    Djee

    After the following overhaul's:

    -added 10mil dilutive shares/year
    -assumed share-price of $400 for 2013, then increasing $100 each year.
    -assumed dividend increase of 15% per year

    I came up with 825 million shares outstanding at the end of 2015 under the current plan.

    I will be writing a follow-up article that uses this number, plus estimates for 2016 to come up with a more accurate fair value for Apple.
    Apr 23 09:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is It Really Too Cheap To Ignore? [View article]
    Alternatively, they could uses their massive cash hoard to issue cheap debt and buy-back shares, making it a win-win for themselves and investors by massively boosting EPS. I wrote a piece about buyback possibilities here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 23 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Apple Repurchase Shares? [View article]
    Cagdas, Thanks for commenting. As I mentioned in the article, all these figures were calculated using strict PE analysis. I took possible Net Income scenarios, then applied potential total shares outstanding, then gave the EPS result a PE based on the growth to determine share price. For the scenario you are referring to, the perpetual negative NI growth warranted a PE of 5.

    I tend to agree with you that $180 is not realistic, even for 2016. My point for the article was to highlight how undervalued Apple is by conventional earning valuation standards, even if you take out you all of Apple's other assets.
    Apr 23 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Already (Essentially) A Private Company [View article]
    I agree the buyback needs to be upped. Here's an article I wrote on the potential EPS boosts from different levels of buybacks: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 22 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Keep Apple In Their Portfolios [View article]
    Added more at 408. Also have a large buy order at 385 if it gets there. Patience will win out for long-term investors here. It's going to be a wild ride, but those who stay the course will be rewarded.
    Apr 17 10:30 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Last Year I Said Sell -- Buy Now? [View article]
    John, a word of advice: "The risks of being out of the game far outweigh the risks of being in it."
    Mar 13 03:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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