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Ryan Sequeira

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  • Bank Of America: Go Home Mr. Market, You're Drunk [View article]
    Exactly. I'm hoping BAC comes down to $5 again so that they can buy back a good chunk of the company. I'd gladly buy anybody's shares for $5 again if it goes that low. Holding BAC for the next 10 years will pay off huge!
    Apr 11 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Comparison Of North America's Biggest Banks [View article]
    I'd stay away from Canadian banks. I live in Toronto and can see the real estate bubble, especially in the condo market where every street corner has a new condo coming up. Toronto has more condos in construction than all 12 major US cities combined. It's not sustainable and the banks will only show that after the bubble bursts. The US banks looked healthy before the US real estate bubble burst...
    Jan 14 02:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: A Bank Fit For Investment [View article]
    Uncle Pie, I'm Canadian and I wouldn't buy Canadian banks right now. It's possible that there is a real estate bubble in Canada, and banks would be some of the first stocks to come down once the bubble bursts. Over the last few years, Toronto has been building more condos than all of the major cities in the U.S. COMBINED! FYI Toronto is only the 4th or 5th largest city in North America (depending on how you define city). Canada's 2nd largest city, Vancouver, has some of the priciest real estate in the world based on relative incomes. It's not sustainable IMO, but you probably hear the same arguments in Canada that were made before the U.S. real estate bubble burst...
    Nov 11 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: A Bank Fit For Investment [View article]
    BAC is a well-run business, along with RY and BNS. I totally agree with Buffett about buying a great business at a fair price. That's why he was buying WFC at book value or slightly higher in 2010 and 2011. He wouldn't pay 2-2.5x book value though, which is what you're getting RY and BNS for these days, and he wouldn't even pay 1.5x book value for WFC which is what WFC is trading for now. WFC is still a well-run business but you don't make money by paying full price for it. I wonder if you bought WFC during the S&L crisis when everyone thought it was going bankrupt...you would've made a killing if you bought it and held on to it.
    Nov 8 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: A Bank Fit For Investment [View article]
    The answer as to why anyone would prefer to own BAC rather than RY, BNS, etc is more about the value that you get compared to the price that you're paying. BAC, RY, and BNS are all well-run businesses. But RY and BNS are selling at 2-2.5x book value while BAC is selling at 0.68x book value. If someone bought BAC when it was trading at much higher valuations back in 2004-2007, then that may be similar to someone buying RY and BNS now.

    As for the commentor who says BAC is dead money - wouldn't it be more accurate to say that you believe BAC is simply overvalued or at full value at $14 since you would be a buyer at $8?
    Nov 8 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited Management Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    They can't comment on BB until nex week.

    It was in the Q/A section too:"Thank you, Shashen, for your question. As you know, we cannot make any comments on BlackBerry as we have a bid for the company. So we really can't make any more comments on that until, as you say, November 4. So thank you for your question. Audra, next question, please."
    Nov 1 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Could Be On Sale Soon, Again [View article]
    Regarded, I think you're the one who's going to need luck. You're also gonna need all the pennies that you're getting from writing these articles lacking any logic. P/B has been increasing since you sold.

    "...the smarter money is staying away for now. That is my take, and I already made a nice chunk of change on BAC." Berkowitz is much smarter than you are, and he's still holding BAC. You lost out on so much money when you sold, plus you probably had to pay tax on the capital gains already, while those of us who are still holding have made much larger gains than you have without having to pay tax. It's only a matter of time until BAC raises its dividend. And if large dividends are what determines value for you or a buy recommendation, then that means BRK would never have been a buy for you.
    Oct 31 01:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Substantial Upside From Earnings Leverage [View article]
    Regarded Solutions, what exactly are you implying about BAC being down today or yesterday? Is that supposed to mean it's "dead money" or it's a sell or something? You've written a couple of articles now saying that there's no reason to invest in BAC and that it's dead money, but you had invested in BAC before and sold too early, showing that you don't truly understand the business nor do you understand the market.

    If a stock is down one day it doesn't mean there's something wrong with it. If I was a buyer then I'd want the price to come down as much as possible. Furthermore, as Colin pointed out, if a stock is selling at a discount to book, then that would usually mean it's a buy, not that it's dead money. You keep saying that BAC hasn't moved in 6 months therefore it's dead money, yet when you bought it was probably moving downwards for 6 months and the discount to book was even greater than it is now.
    Oct 30 12:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Explosive action in BofA Article 77 hearing [View news story]
    Regarded, didn't you buy in to BAC when discount to book was even larger? Why did you buy BAC to begin with if it's such a dog?
    Sep 18 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial: Predicting Another Major Drop In Stock Prices [View article]
    When you say that Watsa is long coal are you talking about his position in International Coal? He sold out of his position in 2011. Maybe I'm missing something, but given his concern over a commodity bubble, it would seem unlikely that he still has any significant position in coal. The deflation bet is like insurance for Fairfax, so it's just in case there is deflation. They are not paying much for it compared to the amount of protection they'd get, so even if there is inflation, Fairfax won't lose much. As for his combined ratios, the most recent results could've been better, but I don't have any concerns overall since the average combined ratios from 2002-2011 are pretty good:

    Average Combined Ratio
    Northbridge Cdn 96.4%
    Crum & Forster 100.3%
    OdysseyRe 93.6%
    Fairfax Asia 87.4%

    BRK also won't be bought out and wouldn't have been bought out during its early years, but that doesn't mean that there is/was no upside. But I agree that BRK and Fairfax have different strengths/weaknesses and they are not exactly the same. They both share the same culture though and the people running each company are the key.
    Jun 28 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial: Predicting Another Major Drop In Stock Prices [View article]
    Seems like what happened in 2008 when Fairfax started to go down with the rest of the market until it shot up within a few months from $230 in Sept 08 to $400 by Feb 09, which was basically when the market was at the bottom...
    Jun 26 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial: Predicting Another Major Drop In Stock Prices [View article]
    Although I personally wouldn't invest in RIM, I have faith in Fairfax's ability, especially based on its long-term track record. As one of Watsa's teachers John Templeton would say, you only need 2 out of 3 decisions to be right and you'll have a superior investment record...
    Jun 11 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial: Predicting Another Major Drop In Stock Prices [View article]
    maybe prem watsa is wrong in his statement that money velocity is going down, but I'd appreciate if you could show where you see that it bottomed last summer and is ready to spool up.
    Jun 7 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial: Well Positioned for a Market Drop [View article]
    Thanks a lot for the info Zach. Yeah I had a feeling it'd just be for institutional investors. I just went to the Fairfax annual meeting last Thursday and they mentioned that their portfolio is now about 27% cash and they're looking to increase that to 40% cash, so it looks like they're really preparing for a downturn. If I can't buy the CPI-linked derivatives then at least I can participate through Fairfax shares. I would just hesitate to sell the shares in order to buy something else that was undervalued because I see myself as a lifetime shareholder of Fairfax...
    Apr 28 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial: Well Positioned for a Market Drop [View article]
    This might sound like a dumb question, but does anyone know how an individual investor would buy CPI-linked derivatives such as the ones Fairfax has?
    Apr 27 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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