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Ryan Sullivan  

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  • Inside Target's CEO hiring [View news story]
    It's actually $19.25M minus the value of his PEP equity that he gets to keep, which hasn't been decided yet.
    Jul 31, 2014. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argos Therapeutics: No Light At The End Of The Tunnel [View article]
    I wouldn't be too worried about overexpression of these genes leading to an additional dendritic cell tumor, because the expression would be transient. However, your fears are certainly theoretically possible: expression of a mutated protein could, in rare cases, drive aberrant expression of proteins and promote an altered dendritic cell, potentially with rapid proliferation and a tumor-like phenotype.

    This process is different from DNDN's Provenge, which activates T cells using a specific prostate cancer peptide, and the FDA might require additional safety evidence.
    Mar 5, 2014. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argos Therapeutics: No Light At The End Of The Tunnel [View article]
    Ponty, thanks for the comment, and good questions. It is difficult to reconcile the high insider ownership, although Pharmstandard has been in a freefall since 2011 (losing ~70% of its value: http://bit.ly/MdQkPe), so I wouldn't hedge too much on that.

    I think Argos would say that they have patent protection on some of the processes that would assist in performing this sort of therapy, including the manufacturing, but I'm not sure how much of this is actually critical to the process. I've been delving more into the patents, but this stuff takes time.

    I think investors are further discounting the stock as a clone of DNDN, which has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Also, I'm not sure I would call the AGS-003 Ph2 a stellar success without knowing more about the patient population. It's very difficult to compare two distinct study populations, especially with such small numbers.

    Best,
    Ryan
    Feb 20, 2014. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BIND Therapeutics Is Worth $18/Share [View article]
    Just in an attempt to be as conservative as possible. Feel free to play around with the spreadsheet if you would like to adjust the values! Thanks for the comment.
    Feb 14, 2014. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argos Therapeutics: No Light At The End Of The Tunnel [View article]
    What I said was "Insiders did purchase a few shares during the IPO, but only PharmaStandard's purchase led to an actual increase in ownership percentages."

    2/12/14 is the date the IPO settled for investors in the initial IPO. The transactions listed here: http://bit.ly/1lJX04G were not open market transactions.
    Feb 13, 2014. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argos Therapeutics: No Light At The End Of The Tunnel [View article]
    Only time will tell. It is an IPO with a small float, and a rise at this point is almost as likely as a fall.

    Having said that, I would be very discouraged of any IPO stock that ends the day (and the next) at exactly the price of the IPO, which was already cut in half from the initial proposed range. It's not exactly a vote of confidence.

    Insiders did purchase a few shares during the IPO, but only PharmaStandard's purchase led to an actual increase in ownership percentages. The other ones didn't even offset the IPO dilution.

    Thanks for the read, and I wish you the best of luck with your ARGS long. Maybe my next article will be one you'll agree with.
    Feb 12, 2014. 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Options action in magicJack raises eyebrows [View news story]
    So he didn't know about the CALL calls?
    Feb 12, 2014. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts argue Apple/China Mobile deal still a matter of time [View news story]
    Most of these are second-hand phones. What happens when you sell your old 3G or 3GS and upgrade to a shiny new 5S? Your old phone gets shipped over to China. Apple doesn't get any money off the sale, but the number of iPhones on the China network is quite high.
    Dec 18, 2013. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanksgiving, Black Friday sales edge up [View news story]
    So sales rose at the rate of inflation? Congrats, B&M retailers. You held your ground.
    Dec 1, 2013. 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Epizyme reports initial findings from EPZ-5676 study, shares fall [View news story]
    An overreaction. I think there was some hope out there (not from me, but from some in the investment community) that the drug might have an effect on the non-MLL-r patients as well, potentially opening the effects up to other leukemias.

    I think the investment community is overlooking the line "Additionally, some MLL-r patients experienced resolution of leukemia-related symptoms and manifestations, including fevers, cachexia, and leukemia cutis." That's huge for patients that had failed all types of treatment up until that point.

    Perhaps some are worried about expiration lockups and were holding to this point to see the results before selling? I'm not sure.

    I'm holding at this point, I'll consider buying more after lockups expire on the 27th, looking for good results presented at ASH.
    Nov 14, 2013. 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google (GOOG): Q2 EPS of $9.56 misses by $1.22. Revenue (ex.-TAC) of $11.1B misses by $230M. Shares -4.5% AH. CC at 4:30PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    Wow, a huge miss.

    Waiting for SAers to start declaring GOOG to be the next APPL...
    Jul 18, 2013. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Major hedge funds have suddenly turned bullish, reportedly buying massive amounts of OTC call options on the S&P 500 (SPY). The purchases have been large enough to send the VIX (VXX) higher even as stocks continue to gain. An important milestone - the implied volatility of S&P calls is now greater than that of puts, a true rarity since 2007. [View news story]
    Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
    May 21, 2013. 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • According to CME reports, J.P. Morgan accounted for nearly all of the physical gold sales at Comex in the last three months, writes blogger Mark McHugh. The sales, representing nearly 2M ounces, is 74% more gold than the U.S. Mint delivered through its American Eagle program in all of 2012. The very idea of "broad-based" selling is a farce, says McHugh. “One thing’s very clear: When it comes to selling physical gold, J.P. Morgan is acting alone.” [View news story]
    Next London Whale?
    Apr 27, 2013. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications Of Apple Guidance [View article]
    Nice analysis. I wonder, with your EPS estimates (at a mid-range, let's take it at $7/share/quarter), this would give a dividend payout ratio of 43.5%, certainly a sustainable ratio. Assuming a 5% decline in EPS y/y, over the next 5 years this leads to a payout ratio of 56.3%, still quite sustainable.

    I'm going to make an assumption that AAPL will get some choice rates on its $50b in debt (10-year AA at ~2.68%).

    With its yield sitting at 3%, and the rate for borrowing money at 2.68%, doesn't it make sense for AAPL to borrow as much as is sustainable until the yield is equivalent to its borrowing rate, at which the price of AAPL's shares would be $466/share?

    At the very least, I think the yield provides a nice floor to AAPL's share price, with some nice upside and yield.

    I'd be interested to know your (and SA's thoughts), though. I'm a newbie to this investing thing, and certainly no AAPL fanboy, so I'd be happy for somebody to point out some obvious error in my calculations.
    Apr 24, 2013. 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung (SSNLF.PK) plans to copy Apple - not for the first time, some might say - and set up 1,400 mini stores in Best Buy (BBY) outlets across the U.S. by June. The "Samsung Experience Shops" will not only sell the company's products but also provide customer support. For Best Buy, the move is part of its strategy to fight the phenomenon of showrooming. [View news story]
    So Best Buy is now embracing its role as a showroom?
    Apr 4, 2013. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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