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S.R.T.Z Investments  

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  • Why Buy Realty Income? [View article]
    Couldn't have phrased your case better, agree with every word.
    As much as I like that monthly check (long O for a long time), when you think about it financially- a dividend has NO meaning, your investment's value didn't increase by a single USD.
    You could as well have O pay NO dividend, reinvest the money themselves into the business and sell a bit of your holding every month/quarter etc.
    Of course as a REIT they must hand out dividends but I assume you get my point.
    By the way, my being long O for a long time has nothing to do with dividends, just with it being a good business.
    Mar 7, 2015. 01:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Getting Back To Basics [View article]
    Interesting article, thanks.
    I'm on the sidelines with PM mainly due to their leverage levels and the fact their dividends+buybacks > cash from operations consistently.

    One comment: you mention:
    "Philip Morris remains a great value stock, but obviously would be a lot better buy at $85 than at $90."
    I think that if you conclude them to be a value stock, the additional 5.8% don't make much of a difference for the long term.
    I just don't think they are a value play for now.
    Nov 4, 2013. 04:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris - Another Look At The Recent Dividend Hike [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.
    That's ok to think so but my point was-borrow with your own money, I don't want management to do that for me.
    And if they believe price is low it's ok to buy back stocks, but don't over do it with loans that may explode in investor's face when interest goes up.
    Sep 12, 2013. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Tobacco Stocks For Retirement Dividend Income [View article]
    Hello Todd,
    Nice article, thanks.
    I've been tracking them for a while and like PM for its geographical diversification.
    However, I very much dislike their high leverage level. Any thoughts about this point?
    I also wrote about this a few months ago here:
    Aug 31, 2013. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITS Ready For Future Interest Rate Hikes ? [View article]
    Hello mgordon10 and thanks for your comment.
    This is a good question but I don't think I can provide an answer to that as the share price is dictated by market forces rather than just economics or accounting.
    I suggest you put on a graph side by side the interest rate vs. the share prices of selected REITs, same as I did for the entire REITs (^jdr) - this way you get the empirical results but they will not necessarily be the same in the future.
    Feb 21, 2013. 07:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITS Ready For Future Interest Rate Hikes ? [View article]
    Hello Nesivos and thank you for the comment.

    It is not necessarily a bad thing to conduct a reality check every once in a while, so although your style is one of the worst I met and although I disagree with most of what you say - I am happy with the comment.

    With that out of the way I will try to answer your criticism:
    1. You mention the effect of interest rate hike on national debt and unemployment. You fail to mention other effects as well: the effect on government investments in the real market (construction, infrastructure etc.), on consumer investments and the list goes on and on.
    Since this article was not meant to be a PHD study, these effect were indeed left out and I did mention that I assume all else remains the same. The extent to which I had to go for the aspect you mentioned and the ones you forgot are far beyond those of such an article.
    Yet, I agree the move of interest rate hike will not be an easy one to perform and as I mentioned - will not happen overnight but may take months (maybe more ?).
    But I do expect other market and global forces to make that move a necessity.
    However, since the hike will be gradual, I tested the effects of 1% - 4% range, not just 4% overnight.
    Right or wrong? I don't have a crystal ball, maybe you do but still I think your guess is as good as mine.

    2. As for Obamacare - that was mentioned and discussed in a former article I published here. It is yet another risk among many others, again - you mention some but forget many others. I didn't have any intention to cover all possible risks and their effects on REIT prices or performance - this article is just about the interest rate risk.

    3. Regarding the dividend yields and the % over 30 year treasury rate - IMHO - you're completely missing the point. Even if in the past there was an empirical connection - the only law REITs have to comply with is the 90%, the link you mention is irrelevant and will not necessarily be kept if performance deteriorates.

    To conclude my response:
    1. I am sorry you see this article as "just a bad piece of FUD", especially when considering the points you try to make to support that.
    2. I don't really care if you think I live in a bubble. To be honest I don't see the connection between your comments and my bubble.

    The article never intended to cover or map all possible types of risks to REITs, especially healthcare ones you stick to.
    It just tries to cover the effect of interest rate hike which - as mentioned - will probably gradual. Hence the 1%-4% range.

    Despite your comment - I do think it will happen once inflation picks up. By the way - I think inflation does exist at a higher level than reported, just not measured as it should be.

    I do hope other readers can see the point I tried to make and make a note to themselves to keep an open eye on the subject and act accordingly.
    Feb 21, 2013. 07:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITS Ready For Future Interest Rate Hikes ? [View article]
    It all depends on the contracts they sign and during renewals - on the market condition. The market will not always let you raise rent despite inflation and even though real estate is considered inflation-protected.
    Thanks for the comment!
    Feb 19, 2013. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2012 Top And Bottom Performing Dividend Stocks [View article]
    That's one of the problems I have with DG investing: the idea of holding a DG stock as long as its dividend is secure and growing misses huge fluctuations that you can predict.
    While timing the market or a stock is almost impossible, Intel at $28-29 was simply too expensive.
    Sold @ $27 and bought again @ 20.3.
    My strategy is to sell even DG stocks when the stock gets pricey, regardless of the dividends: the few annual dividend percentages you collect simply do not cover a -20% or -25% decline in the stock price.
    Feb 2, 2013. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Western Union Is Fairly Priced [View article]
    Can't agree more!
    Nov 2, 2012. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Western Union Is Fairly Priced [View article]
    Sure, my thoughts are value,value,value.
    Only thing bothering is that they didn't provide 2013 outlook.
    Nov 2, 2012. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was Caterpillar's Warning Actually A Positive? [View article]
    Hello again Timmy,
    Since I'm not such a fan of dividend growth investing, I would like to ask you to read an article I wrote several months ago :

    Whichever way you choose - good luck with your portfolio.
    Oct 13, 2012. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Opportunities The Arriving Bear Market Should Provide [View article]
    When the market gets us there I guess many of us will feel like kids in a candy store.
    Oct 12, 2012. 04:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Western Union Is Fairly Priced [View article]
    Agree to all you say, tried to express that in my article. Thanks for your comment!
    Oct 12, 2012. 04:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Western Union Is Fairly Priced [View article]
    Hello Legend,
    Thanks for your comments. Basically I think you and I see things the same; that's some of what I wrote in the article. The main issue is how long it will take, no doubt it will be quite some time until smartphones kick in to these populations.
    Good luck!
    Oct 12, 2012. 04:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was Caterpillar's Warning Actually A Positive? [View article]
    Hello Timmy,
    Thanks for your comment, glad you liked the article.
    It is kind of trying to time the market (not a good idea generally...) but I think with current atmosphere we will see more declines.
    Good luck with your portfolio construction!
    Oct 12, 2012. 04:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment