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  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    Nik: Many thanks for the kind words. I'm humbled that my articles have helped you. Best of success to you in 2014.
    Jan 9 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    leonct74: Thank you for carving out some time from your busy schedule to comment. Out of respect for your valuable time, I will only say that I look forward to reading your article that refutes everything in mine.
    Jan 8 04:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    bad: My article just focuses on the 3D liver assay so, yes, it only represents some of the information about ONVO. I agree that the company is overvalued. It's overvalued by ~40% based on my opinion of where it should be considering today's level of investor sentiment. I would only consider shorting it if the price were to climb back close to the recent high. In other words, I pay close attention to the chart. For shorting to work, the timing has to be right. I don't short based solely on fundamentals. Taking a contrarian position based on information the whole world knows is a superb way to lose money.
    Jan 8 02:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    Maybe that's because ONVO doesn't have a marketing dept. They have an EVP of Commercial Ops, Michael Renard. He may be adding personnel now, but until recently he was a one-man show. I suggest that you download ONVO's 12/5 investor presentation. There is ample info on the liver tox assay. In addition, there is a list of scientific publications on the website under the "Science & Technology" tab.
    Jan 8 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    bd: The $500M market cap figure is just my opinion, it's an observation based on the current level of bullish investor sentiment re 3D printing and regenerative medicine. It's not an analysis. This could change based on a change in the intensity of the sentiment. You don't have to do much work to conclude that ONVO is overvalued by traditional metrics. Its book value according to Yahoo is only .68/share, for example. No further analysis is required. The whole world knows this. ONVO's price is being supported by the two main pillars that I've cited previously. As long as the support remains, the valuation will remain. Based on my experience in the sector and what I know about regenerative medicine, I believe that a reasonable valuation is ~$500M. It's a castle in the air, though. The valuation is based on a perception. If the perception changes, the valuation will change. Saying it another way, based on the current investing environment (biotech is in favor right now), ONVO is ~40% overvalued. In order for the valuation to fall to $200M - $300M, the future of 3D printing and/or tissue engineering will have to lose some credibility. I don't see this happening any time soon.

    Another pertinent example of fundamental value vs perceived value is TWTR. Its book value on Yahoo is $1.50 and shares trade at $60. Do you think TWTR will retrace down to, say, <$10? I don't either.

    What I'm saying is that as long as institutional investors perceive that 3D printing and regenerative medicine are two profound innovations that may significantly change life as we know it, ONVO's valuation will remain robust.
    Jan 8 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    Green: I actually meant that TNGN crashed and burned. Surprising really. Anyway, my article details what happened. I'll take a look at the 2 companies you mention.
    Jan 8 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    David: Thanks for your input. Yes, the idiosyncratic nature of most hepatotoxicity is a colossal thorn in developers' collective sides. What is therapeutic for one patient is subtherapeutic for another and toxic to another. Nothin' is easy in pharma/biotech.

    The competitive nature of the 3D culture market means that ONVO will need to hire sales & marketing personnel if it wants to capture a healthy piece of the pie. The product won't sell itself.
    Jan 8 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    Bogus: My article just addresses the 3D liver tox assay market because this is the first product that ONVO will market. At present, ONVO does not intend to sell bioprinters. Mr. Murphy has stated this publicly. This could change, of course. Also, ONVO has never stated an intent to print cartilage. Vascular grafts represent an opportunity but ONVO is nowhere near a clinical trial. It is still conceptual.

    Your comment is typical of bulls. The allure of all the wondrous benefits of tissue engineering clouds your perception of where things actually stand. There's quite a long way to go. I'm a long-term bull myself, but I'm also a realist.
    Jan 7 08:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    Geez, mogman, only an academic writes like this. Let's see if I can decipher your comment: My article is, by virtue of its topic, a narrow view of ONVO's business potential. I thought it would be beneficial for retail investors to know about the 3D liver model market. I admit that I underestimated the complexity of the drug discovery environment as it relates to the breadth and depth of models in use. What it says is that ONVO, or any 3D model maker, faces a competitive situation. No slam dunks to be had.

    I interpret your "pull dynamic" statement as a description of the market's discounting behavior. I agree. Companies' valuations always get far ahead of reality vis a vis sexy stories. For instance, I thought the 3D printing mania would have subsided by now, but it still has legs.

    I've never heard of anyone buying a stock based on radical permutations. I assume you mean new technologies, new uses of technologies, randomness? I don't disagree. My own approach just involves establishing a long position with the expectation that the price will go up. I just try to time my entry right.
    Jan 7 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    cns: Now that you've outed me, I confess that my article is merely part of a broader conspiracy to suppress ONVO's share price. I convened all the ONVO bears in an Apalachin-type meeting where we agreed that I would cryptically write this piece. You're correct that the real message can be found by deciphering the hidden hieroglyphs between the lines. You need the ciphertext key, though, to do this. I'll tip my hand by saying that if the price drops to ~$6, all the bears intend to buy en masse, easily 50M - 60M shares. Stay tuned...
    Jan 7 07:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    Mukticat: Based on traditional metrics, ONVO's valuation is ludicrously high. It's book value, for example, is <$1. This isn't the story, though. There are two principal forces supporting the stock price: industrial 3D printing bullish investor sentiment and the promise of regenerative medicine. The first pillar of support, in my opinion, is ridiculous because ONVO it is a biotech firm and does not intend to sell printers. Why sector investors lump ONVO in with DDD, SSYS, etc. is beyond me. But, nevertheless, the support is there and won't go away until the 3D bull market wanes.

    The allure of regenerative medicine is colossal. It represents an opportunity of a similar scale that the internet did in the mid-to-late 90s. We just have to wait a while. You need to remember that progress is being made. As long as institutional investors believe this, their support will remain. I don't see anything that will discredit the concept of regenerative medicine or the technology of tissue engineering. It's just that it's unrealistic to expect FDA-approved implantable tissues before 2024 or later.

    In order for ONVO's market cap to drop below $500M these two support pillars of investor sentiment have to weaken substantially. I don't see this happening any time soon. I do think, though, that ONVO needs to bag a lucrative collaboration or two this year. There is always a point at which the castle in the air falls to earth and it could happen to ONVO if it cannot demonstrate pharma/biotech interest in its value proposition.
    Jan 7 03:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    Yep. The Swiss firm RegenHU is another bioprinter maker. Anyhow, if I do, indeed, get over there I'll write it up and publish it.
    Jan 7 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    bad: What I thought I did was address the competitive nature of 3D liver assays and liver tox testing in general. It will take a well-executed sales and marketing effort for ONVO to elbow its way into the mix. The other objective I had was to illustrate the complexity surrounding drug discovery and liver tox testing. If relatively simple tissue models involve this degree of complexity, what does this say about implantable tissues and fully-functional organs? The degree of complexity is off the charts. These amazing innovations will be available some day, but we'll have to be very patient (no pun intended).
    Jan 7 02:33 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    II: Many thanks for the kind words.
    Jan 7 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo: Modest Expectations For The Liver Tox Assay [View article]
    Adam: As long as investor sentiment remains strong, its valuation won't drop below $500M in my view. If this sentiment wanes, at some point it has to, then the valuation should moderate.
    Jan 7 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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