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SA Editor Samir Patel

 
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  • Just 10 Questions For Samir Patel On His Retirement From Seeking Alpha [View instapost]
    1) Chris actually emailed this to me and I sent him the answers back... more efficient than audio recording/note taking, and probably more accurate too.
    2) Thanks for the kind words! Keep in touch.
    Oct 10 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just 10 Questions For Samir Patel On His Retirement From Seeking Alpha [View instapost]
    You too, Jeanne! You're still the top candidate for being my official editor when I become a famous novelist ;)
    Oct 10 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just 10 Questions For Samir Patel On His Retirement From Seeking Alpha [View instapost]
    Thanks, David - SA is a remarkable company and I'm excited to see where you go from here. Even though I'm no longer employed by SA, I'll always consider myself part of the team. Please don't ever hesitate to reach out to me with questions/ideas about various SA projects - I'd love to stay involved. Excited to see how the platform grows and continues to change the way investors find and access top-quality investment analysis.
    Oct 10 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just 10 Questions For Samir Patel On His Retirement From Seeking Alpha [View instapost]
    Aww, I'll miss you too, Whopper!

    Chris, thanks for all the amusing (and insightful) questions. I can honestly say that you've been one of my greatest mentors/advisors and I'm very grateful for all the advice/thoughts/etc you've shared. Looking forward to our game of Scrabble, though I feel like your strategy will beat my vocabulary...
    Oct 10 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Career Alpha (Sometimes, To Do The Things You Love, You Leave The Ones You Love Behind) [View instapost]
    Thanks, Ted! Keep in touch.
    Oct 10 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Humor – Sunday, September 22, 2013 [View instapost]
    Story of my life. Minus the wife.
    Sep 22 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly buys natural language startup; more on Jefferies' upgrade [View news story]
    1) An analyst upgraded INTC? Clearly I must still be dreaming...

    2) "It isn't clear yet that Intel's new Bay Trail Atom tablet CPUs will be cheaper or less power-hungry than comparable ARM-based parts." Inaccurate on the power-hungry side - benchmark testing at IDF showed that Bay Trail doesn't go above 2.5W even under heavy power draw, and normal usage is far lower than that. It has a substantial performance lead over Cortex A15/Krait 400 with lower power draw. As of right now, Bay Trail has the best perf/watt of any tablet SoC by a significant margin. The caveat here is the GPU does lag some of the other designs. (Anand and Ashraf were both on the ground: http://bit.ly/13WO84A, http://bit.ly/17w4XEc)

    As for pricing, ARK says Z3770 is $37/tray. If I understand correctly, that's for the full-featured high-end; cut-down chips will be significantly cheaper and enable $99 tablets.
    Sep 13 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Morning [View instapost]
    Actually, it's much better to be the human, who's smart enough to build walls to protect himself from the lion, and weaponry so he can hunt the gazelle. - Addendum attributed to Samir Patel
    Sep 8 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumors Are Over, But The Story's Not: Vodafone Has 20%+ Upside [View instapost]
    I was planning to construct a more detailed/precise model, but MicroFundy did such a good job here that I'm not sure I need to: http://bit.ly/163hEqn

    You can make a copy of the google spreadsheet and play around with the numbers on your own.

    The short version is there's substantial margin of safety here - even if you assume VOD horribly misallocates the cash they're keeping, and assign an NPV of zero to that cash, and factor in 15% cap gains taxes on the payout, and a few other discounts here and there, you end up coming to a fair value of roughly $34 according to MF's model.

    I did a little more precise calculations and still came to a fair value of $38-ish, and that's at a somewhat elevated discount rate with no free cash flow growth. Realistically, I think VOD has the potential to deliver higher FCF. I'm trying to work up a more comprehensive/thorough analysis but time is unfortunately short.
    Sep 5 08:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumors Are Over, But The Story's Not: Vodafone Has 20%+ Upside [View instapost]
    Rob - thanks for pointing that out. I did see a few things but didn't dig into them since this was a fast look and I'd rather be conservative. Used mgmt's guidance as a quick and dirty estimate. As I mentioned in the post, I think long-term FCF will be higher than this. Which exceptionals are you referring to specifically?
    Sep 4 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumors Are Over, But The Story's Not: Vodafone Has 20%+ Upside [View instapost]
    Thanks, Ashraf. Quite honestly, it was a bit nervewracking analyzing something so big so quickly... I kept feeling like I was going to miss something! It's obviously imprecise in a lot of areas, but given the point of the exercise, I think it went pretty well.
    Sep 3 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumors Are Over, But The Story's Not: Vodafone Has 20%+ Upside [View instapost]
    To that, I'll also add that EV will be somewhat different - again, as I laid out, this is a rough approximation. The point of this exercise was to figure out if the delta between VOD's current market cap and the $130B Verizon payout is too big, too small, or fair. The conclusion is it's too small - in my opinion, VOD's current market cap should be $190-$200B or more. How the exact numbers shake out post-deal-close will depend on how Vodafone chooses to reinvest the money, etc, but the overarching theme is VOD shares are undervalued.
    Sep 3 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumors Are Over, But The Story's Not: Vodafone Has 20%+ Upside [View instapost]
    I should add that VOD's net debt pro forma will be lower than I'm presenting here, because they'll be keeping some of the cash from the payout. The way I've looked at it, that would reduce the amount of the VZW payout and increase the market cap to debt ratio, which would reduce the leverage effect some, so the discussion here isn't entirely precise. The broader point, however, still remains - there are obviously some complexities that you have to eliminate for a quick analysis, but no matter how you slice it, the market isn't assigning full value to what's left of Vodafone without the 45% stake in Verizon Wireless.
    Sep 3 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When "Up 85% YTD" And "Cheap Stock" Aren't Contradictions: The Curious Case Of HP [View instapost]
    Operating company will have zero net debt by the end of the year, which means the massive FCF relative to market cap (16-20% FCF yield at the current price) will be available for accretive buybacks, higher dividends, etc.
    Aug 22 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When "Up 85% YTD" And "Cheap Stock" Aren't Contradictions: The Curious Case Of HP [View instapost]
    Bought substantially more after earnings. Hugely undervalued on the basis of FCF.
    Aug 22 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
163 Comments
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