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SA Editor Stephen Alpher  

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  • First China will overtake the U.S. in 2020, then India will overtake China in 2050, says Citi's chief economist, Willem Buiter. Usually a man that knows better than extrapolating recent events into the future, Buiter shows he has a sense of humor, predicting annual world GDP growth of 4.6% till 2030, then 3.8% till 2050.  [View news story]
    LOL. I find Buiter to usually be pretty sharp. I'm surprised to see him out there with this.

    I personally agree with his prediction of 4.6% annual growth, but my calculations show it continuing until 2034, then falling off to just 3.6%. I also see crude oil hitting a new all time high between now and 2050.

    Prove me wrong!
    Feb 25, 2011. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. economy is "gradually getting stronger," Geithner says, and the world is on firmer footing to withstand higher oil prices than before the recession. “The economy is in a much stronger position to handle [rising oil prices]... Central banks have a lot of experience in managing these things."  [View news story]
    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    Feb 23, 2011. 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barclays agrees with Art Cashin: Bahrain may be more important than Libya. A takeover or weakening of the Sunni government would strengthen Iran's influence in Bahrain and provide a road map for Saudi Arabia's Shia population. The threat is not so much a cutoff of oil supplies, but a slowdown in exploration and investment.  [View news story]
    Danke!
    Feb 23, 2011. 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's vaunted high-speed rail lines could start to disintegrate within 5 years, according to a researcher. The issue is low quality ash used in the concrete that forms the base of the tracks. "I'm not talking about small problems, but big problems," says Zhu Ming, "the miracle of Chinese high-speed rail will be reduced to dust."  [View news story]
    Wasn't BO waxing poetic about Chinese high speed rail in the SOTU? It's not exactly Bush and "yellowcake," but where's the quality control on these speeches!
    Feb 23, 2011. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time reports a source close to the regime saying Gaddafi, knowing he cannot retake the country, threatens, or at least bluffs, to turn Libya into another Somalia. To start, he has ordered the sabotage of oil facilities, starting with blowing up pipelines that bring crude to the Mediterranean.  [View news story]
    Link is in the post ...
    Feb 22, 2011. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian continues to audition for his own show, appearing on Bloomberg to say events in Libya are blowing "stagflationary winds" to the West. He notes the curiously weak performance of the dollar, "a warning shot to America that we cannot simply assume flight to quality."  [View news story]
    No. I like him very much and I think his comment about the $ to be an important one.

    He's a bit ubiquitous lately ... just taking a little stab at that.
    Feb 22, 2011. 03:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Portugal reiterates that it needs no outside help, even while the ECB steps in to buy Portuguese bonds after yields soar to a 438 basis point spread to German paper. Rumors float that the EU is convinced a Portuguese bailout is just a matter of time.  [View news story]
    From the FT article:

    The denial came amid reports, quoting unidentified EU officials, of a growing consensus among eurozone finance ministers ...
    Feb 18, 2011. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portugal reiterates that it needs no outside help, even while the ECB steps in to buy Portuguese bonds after yields soar to a 438 basis point spread to German paper. Rumors float that the EU is convinced a Portuguese bailout is just a matter of time.  [View news story]
    It was an EU official who made the comments. Regardless, math has no agenda. Portugal's debt load is unsustainable.
    Feb 18, 2011. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "We have sold everything we can produce in silver and have demand for at least twice that volume," says the head of sales at the Royal Canadian Mint. Silver surges another 1.9% to $32.16/oz., even as news floats of an impending margin hike. Next stop: Hunt Brothers. SLV +1.0%.  [View news story]
    Duh.

    Thanks!
    Feb 18, 2011. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cotton reverses course and locks limit down, but BAL -9.6% underperforms as many piled into the ETF yesterday, anticipating perhaps a string of limit up moves. Sean Corrigan notes the move in cotton since last summer is a 10-sigma move, i.e. a 1/10^22 chance of occurring.  [View news story]
    I don't think Corrigan is talking about today's move at all. He's talking about the move since last summer. You'll notice the chart is a mutli-decade one.
    Feb 18, 2011. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cotton threatens to go parabolic, opening locked limit up this morning at $2.04/lb., an 8% gain for the week. (BAL +2.7%) is up 46% YTD.  [View news story]
    We try to be forward-looking here!
    Feb 17, 2011. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil percolates, rising over $1 in a few minutes on bullish inventory data and news 2 Iranian warships are to pass through the Suez Canal on their way to Syria, a "provocation," says Israeli Foreign Minister Lieberman. BNO +1.8%. OIL +0.9%.  [View news story]
    Buy the dip brother!
    Feb 16, 2011. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "Global food prices are rising to dangerous levels and threaten tens of millions of poor people around the world," says World Bank president Robert Zoellick. Prices have risen 15% in just the last 4 months, a nice performance, but U.S. equities are doing better.  [View news story]
    No mention of livestock? Isn't one of corn's major uses to feed pigs and cattle, i.e we don't eat the corn, we eat the animals that eat the corn.
    Feb 16, 2011. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Global food prices are rising to dangerous levels and threaten tens of millions of poor people around the world," says World Bank president Robert Zoellick. Prices have risen 15% in just the last 4 months, a nice performance, but U.S. equities are doing better.  [View news story]
    Sorry about that. It was tongue and cheek, directed at those who would overlook every issue out there as long as their stock portfolios are going up (and conversely call their congressman in the event of a bear market). I'm long America and long equities and I like rising values as much as the next guy, but can't ignore some of the negative consequences of bad farm policy, fiscal deficits, and money printing coming out of the developed world.
    Feb 15, 2011. 02:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The FCIC backpedals on its prior refusal, and releases its 2009 interview with Ben Bernanke (transcript). Among the more choice bits: He'd defend his actions on Lehman Brothers "to my deathbed," and blames "poisonous" politics for TARP's failure to spark lending.  [View news story]
    Bonus points for someone to search around and find the names of others who have defended actions "to their deathbed" (or at least until they fled their country to the south of France). My guess is it's not a pleasant list of leaders.
    Feb 15, 2011. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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