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Sacha May

 
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  • Intel: Apple's A7 Chip Reveals Dangerous Trend [View article]
    Intel could do that, but not as closely as companies like Apple and Samsung that can design chips fully in-house. Also, working this closely with customers would have a negative effect n Intel's margins, since it would have to make customer-specific versions of its chips, which involves more costs and complications.
    Sep 25, 2013. 02:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Apple's A7 Chip Reveals Dangerous Trend [View article]
    Mostly just Samsung, which has already been using its own chip in the international version of the S4.
    Sep 25, 2013. 02:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Apple's A7 Chip Reveals Dangerous Trend [View article]
    The problem is using ARM ip to become a fab business is a much lower margin business. That combined with Intel's lack of brand image in mobile will make it very difficult to retain Intel's current profitability.
    Sep 25, 2013. 01:56 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Apple's A7 Chip Reveals Dangerous Trend [View article]
    Agree with the manufacturing part, but just manufacturing is a much lower margin business than Intel's current model. The key to Intel's profitability is combining design + manufacture into a single process.
    Sep 25, 2013. 01:52 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Don't 'Like' Its Stock Price [View article]
    To each his own opinion, but I'll still point out that you should look at the numbers I showed more carefully.

    My model does project strong growth in both user base and ARPU (monetization) of that user base, every year until 2022, and then uses a terminal growth rate as high as 7% to finish the valuation. It also reflects heavy R&D investment to go along with that, as well as especially strong global growth...
    Aug 2, 2013. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Don't 'Like' Its Stock Price [View article]
    So do I, just not quick enough to justify a $90B+ valuation.
    Aug 2, 2013. 11:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Don't 'Like' Its Stock Price [View article]
    The problem with FB is that it is one of the few tech growth stocks that had its IPO at such a high valuation. The company is already pretty much valued $100B, I wouldn't say that potentially huge rewards are that huge.

    I would agree with you if we were talking 3-4 years ago, FB somehow had already IPO'd, and it was worth under $30B - that's some big upside potential.
    Aug 2, 2013. 10:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Don't 'Like' Its Stock Price [View article]
    Comparables. But in the valuation graph, I varied the discount rate and still couldn't justify the valuation.
    Aug 2, 2013. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Don't 'Like' Its Stock Price [View article]
    I actually also agree with you, I hesitated before recommending a short vs. non-buy, but I thought suggesting for shorts to "look at it" vs. straight up saying "short this stock" would be better. You're right in thinking this run can continue for some time.
    Aug 2, 2013. 09:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Don't 'Like' Its Stock Price [View article]
    I don't short stocks. This is a suggestion to people that short to take a close look at Facebook, and to others to avoid buying in at this price.
    Aug 2, 2013. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Don't 'Like' Its Stock Price [View article]
    So you agree its overvalued... I know its the largest social network ever, but that doesn't say anything about its valuation. There are also huge social networks in Russia and Asia, it's not just Facebook. In my model the network grows to 2.4 billion users by 2022, so don't point out 1 billion.

    Yes, a great social network, but still overvalued.
    Aug 2, 2013. 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Don't 'Like' Its Stock Price [View article]
    I am actually against using just models... But with Facebook, you can change all of the assumptions and still not get to a stock price of $37, try it yourself before claiming that it makes a "huge" difference.
    Aug 2, 2013. 08:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Don't 'Like' Its Stock Price [View article]
    I agree with this, but in Facebook's defense, remember that most users are shifting to using Facebook on mobile devices, where I haven't yet heard of someone using adblock.
    Aug 2, 2013. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: 20% Upside In Next Year If Mobile Grows [View article]
    Data Servers mostly, but maybe also the software & other division. I expect success in mobile to start in 2014, somewhere around Q3. There's also the much-hyped set-top box (tv streaming), but thats a big question mark.
    Jul 27, 2013. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: 20% Upside In Next Year If Mobile Grows [View article]
    1. look as some of the forecasts, heres one: http://onforb.es/117MY4U . I don't necessarily see a recovery, but I think shipments are close to a bottom, and will see support from emerging markets.

    2. I don't see a huge decline in PC - I think we're just gonna see lack of growth. Therefore I would not think of mobile shipments as offsetting, but instead supplementing. Also on mobile growth, you're going to see momentum pick up quickly (if it does at all). Once a few major manufacturers switch to Intel, it should become tempting for others to follow suit, especially if Intel's technology is superior.

    3. They're not baked in because most analysts don't see Intel making major mobile gains any time soon, and they believe that even if Intel does, the cannibalization of more expensive PC chips will lead to lower margins and profits will not grow significantly.

    4. As in 2, its a momentum game. Manufacturers have not signed on because they want to wait and see on real-world performance and consumer popularity of "Intel Inside", especially since most Intel chips sell at a premium to competitors.
    Jul 26, 2013. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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