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Sacha May  

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  • Intel: 20% Upside In Next Year If Mobile Grows [View article]
    I like the Intel TV opportunity but it's far-fetched. Not only are networks against it, but a lot of other big tech names are making moves in the space.
    Jul 26, 2013. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: 20% Upside In Next Year If Mobile Grows [View article]
    I see your point, but you should look up consensus analysis on the PC market in the next 5 years. I think the market has/will soon bottom out, and will get support from emerging markets, partially from growing corporate businesses, but also from consumers. We're not yet at a time when people skip out on PCs for productivity. Because of this, growth of mobile Atom chips do not necessarily have to be at the cost of PC chip sales. Yes, margins may be squeezed, but that does not mean earnings growth won't happen. A 40% gross margin business + a 20% margin business means lower overall margins but higher profits if the 40% division has enough support (of demand).
    Jul 26, 2013. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: 20% Upside In Next Year If Mobile Grows [View article]
    Agreed, Intel does have a very strong brand, but I think that that is due to its long-term technological leadership, and still depends on that leadership continuing.
    Jul 26, 2013. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Patent Applications Reveal Next Generation EV Technology [View article]
    The two companies collaborated in 1969 to make the VW-"Porsche 914 and 914-6, whereby the 914-6 had a Porsche engine, and the 914 had a Volkswagen engine, in 1976 with the Porsche 912E (USA only) and the Porsche 924, which used many Audi components, and was built at Audi's Neckarsulm factory. Porsche 944s were also built there,[29] although they used far fewer Volkswagen components. The Cayenne, introduced in 2002, shares its entire chassis with Volkswagen Touareg and Audi Q7, which is built at the Volkswagen Group factory in Bratislava."
    Apr 23, 2013. 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Patent Applications Reveal Next Generation EV Technology [View article]
    See my comment further below, but most of these so called "low volume" brands are not independent. Why do you think Porsches share so many parts with VWs. Cost advantages...
    Apr 23, 2013. 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Patent Applications Reveal Next Generation EV Technology [View article]
    Pretty much none of these brands are independent... Aston Martin has been running losses for a very long time and is now owned by Tata, as is Jag. RR is owned by VW, as is Porsche. There's a reason why all of these brands with less volume are acquired: it's much more profitable for them to be part of a larger group because they can share parts and manufacturing processes... Look up how many parts Porsche shares with many cheap VWs.
    Apr 23, 2013. 10:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Patent Applications Reveal Next Generation EV Technology [View article]
    None of those car companies are independent... Porsche benefits hugely from sharing many parts with VW.
    Apr 23, 2013. 10:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Patent Applications Reveal Next Generation EV Technology [View article]
    Points 1 and 2 are still largely arguable. What we investors should focus on is 3. I still don't see much stopping the big players (GM, Ford, Toyota, VW, BMW, etc...) from moving more aggressively into EVs IF they ever become fully viable (other than a niche product for rich people).

    Going long Tesla is not only a direct play on the future of EVs, but also a play on that specific company, and with most of the tech advancements happening outside of it (batteries, new conductive materials, etc.) I can easily see the bigger players crushing Tesla.

    To be profitable in the auto business you need huge volume, and Tesla will never catch up to the big players (and therefore will not be able to reduce its costs as effectively). Ford, for example, can build an EV on top of a cheap existing frame, parts, etc.

    The supercharger advantage will not materialize: EVs will only become viable with an industry-set standard for this kind of charger. Imagine gas stations if each pump was car-specific...

    One more thing to note: Tesla's current financial situation is not reflective of real market dynamics. It's subsidized up to $7500/car...(as are most other EVs). This will not last forever, especially after Obama is gone.
    Apr 22, 2013. 07:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Patent Applications Reveal Next Generation EV Technology [View article]
    Good article, but a few concerns:
    1. The problem isn't range, it's time to re-fill. If you look at ICE cars, range is pretty much unlimited (a 10 minute re-fuel is not long enough to disrupt any trip, and the world already has an extensive re-fueling infrastructure). Even if an EV has more range than an ICE on one tank, it does not come close to the actual real-world range of an ICE car if it takes several hours to recharge (even 30 mins is long).
    2. Electric cars are going to continue to depreciate faster than ICE cars as long as the battery is one of the most expensive components.
    3. The first-mover rarely wins. Battery innovation is most likely not going to come from Tesla, and will be available to all manufacturers. Sure, Tesla has electric cars built from the ground-up, but others are catching up fast, and with a good enough battery most of the current electric cars would be good options.

    Overall I love Tesla innovation-wise, and I want to like it as a business, but partially for the reasons above I am still staying away.
    Apr 22, 2013. 05:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: A Speculative Buy, Watch Lumia And NSN [View article]
    good points. I'm still worried about supply issues. the 920 isn't even listed on amazon anymore. there's little excuse for Nokia to not keep up with the demand, it can't be THAT high. I hope sales are good, but we can only wait and see.

    And sailfish isn't owned by Nokia, its a completely separate venture.
    Dec 5, 2012. 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: A Speculative Buy, Watch Lumia And NSN [View article]
    The restructuring costs is a great point, and will be part of the reason for Nokia's improving long-term results as they disappear. However, I think that most analysts ignore these costs anyways, apart from their obvious effects on net cash.
    Dec 4, 2012. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: A Speculative Buy, Watch Lumia And NSN [View article]
    Great points, I agree with Asha in the medium-term, but the feature phones segment is inevitably a future dog. It will, however, be useful as a medium-term cash cow.
    Dec 4, 2012. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Stay Away, It's Still Too Expensive [View article]
    I agree with all your points. In this article, however, I did not attempt to value Netflix. I was just showing that it doesn't have the potential to be a $30bln company, like it used to be, by showing that its biggest future prospect (US streaming) is barely worth $1bln in market cap.
    Sep 17, 2012. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Stay Away, It's Still Too Expensive [View article]
    Thanks, I agree with most of your points, but the SG&A expenses are almost all directed to expanding online streaming.
    Sep 17, 2012. 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Stay Away, It's Still Too Expensive [View article]
    Yeah, it's hard to sell software and content in China because pirating is much more common. Take a look at how much $/year we lose to software pirating in China.
    Sep 17, 2012. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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