Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Safraner Investment  

View Safraner Investment's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Banco Santander's Dividend Can't Last [View article]
    Santander dividend slashed as it goes back to cash dividends
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Downturn An Opportunity To Pick Up High-Quality Nat Gas Names [View article]
    In case it helps, I wrote an article about Russian gas in Europe touching on the LNG alternative here:
    Sep 25, 2014. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enagas: A 5% Yield Solid Dividend Growth Stock With Improved Outlook [View article]
    Fair comment, the recent investments in Peru seem material for Enagas and I agree with the risks associated to international diversification (not only potential poor investments but also currency or country risks). Just to add some detail, Gasoducto Sur Peruano is on take or pay terms, making revenue more stable (I assume then it meets the expectations of the company). Also while Enagas is holding a minority stake, Odebrecht has operated in Peru for long years.

    As for this year's advance, IMO the company was undervalued as the year started and has only caught up to more reasonable prices, especially after the regulatory risk in its home country has been mitigated.
    Jul 29, 2014. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Measuring Dividend Growth, Part 2: Linear [View article]
    Interesting article, in fact a number of stocks show linear dividend growth which smooths down their % growth rate a they move into the future.

    In the article below I discussed a simple formula to calculate the value of dividends under the assumption of future linear growth. Hope you will find it useful.

    SA: How to value dividends that grow by a fixed amount each year
    Jul 18, 2014. 03:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite A Disappointing Performance, Pfizer Pins Its Hope On These Drugs [View article]
    Hopefully the link will work:
    May 11, 2014. 05:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe And Russian Gas: 8 Options To Play This Diversification Theme [View article]
    Thanks for your comment, these are material fields that may supply Europe most likely with LNG, so it would have been relevant to mention them given their proximity to Europe.

    Interested investors can find additional information here:

    My article did not comment all the potential LNG supply options (any country with supplies could in theory export to Europe) but I believe they all share common traits: inelastic supply, high price (especially in Asia) and the need of a receiving infrastructure in Europe. Spain and the UK are top of the list in infrastructure but none imports from Russia. They could however distribute to the rest of Europe if interconnection bottlenecks across countries are eased.
    Apr 25, 2014. 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Dividends That Grow By A Fixed Amount Each Year [View article]
    Thanks cfarbstein. I used an 8% discount and now corrected the article to mention this.

    I typically use 8% to 10% discounts for simplicity (consider it my personal choice of return, I consider AT&T a low-risk investment at 8%).

    From a theoretical CAPM point of view however the discount rate should be:

    r = Risk-Free rate of return + Beta * Equity Market Premium

    In practice, the values of risk-free rate and market premium can be very debated, but as an example for AT&T you can visit Their analysis comes up with a 7.82% discount (not far from my quick assumption).

    I normally face issues when inserting links in comments, but here is the full link in case it works:
    Mar 14, 2014. 06:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Dividends That Grow By A Fixed Amount Each Year [View article]
    Yes this is an old and well established formula (see wikipedia: dividend discount model) I would suggest you get familiar with the standard DDM - the web has plenty of information about it- and specially its limitations.

    This article follows the same logic of the standard model but addresses linear dividend growth instead of exponential growth as the standard DDM does. As a variation of the standard method, the proposed model also inherits all the limitations the DDM suffers.
    Mar 14, 2014. 04:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Dividends That Grow By A Fixed Amount Each Year [View article]
    Many thanks loon, I guess this fell through the cracks out of my text in the process of editing but you are right, I chose an 8% discount rate for the example (different investors will choose different values, but this is quite a common one for a quick calculation).
    I'll send an ammendment to the article and include the 8% reference
    Mar 13, 2014. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Dividends That Grow By A Fixed Amount Each Year [View article]
    Yes, I thought the same after writing them ;-)
    Mar 13, 2014. 01:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Actually Might Be Relevant [View article]
    Jon, in a deep sense, my view is that prices do compound.

    Let me explain myself: companies add their undistributed earnings to their balance sheets in order to generate even higher earnings. That is exactly the same thing you do with your dividends when you talk about compounding.

    The first sort of compounding (company-driven rather than shareholder-driven) is what allows earnings to grow. And in the long term, prices will follow earnings. That is why I see the compounding math happening all the same (only behind the scences).
    Mar 3, 2014. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Are Irrelevant [View article]
    Thanks Briar, great post in my opinion. Nearly an article itself.
    Mar 1, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Are Irrelevant [View article]
    Geekette, what my article tries to explain is that when you receive a dividend what you are in fact doing is selling a portion of your company (and that is the reason why you are receiving cash, it comes in exchange of that sale).

    Let me try to explain myself one more time. When a dividend is paid, shareholders are not forced to sell stock, agreed, but the company is in fact forced to sell assets (or to not purchase additional assets, which is the same) in order to have cash ready and distribute those dividends.

    So in my view you have two options to receive cash from your investment in a company: the first one is to let the company sell assets in order to pay you a dividend and the second one is to let the company keep all the cash in-house and invest it for you (but then you need to sell a portion of your stock to generate cash for yourself)

    In both cases, when cash appears in your bank account, it is because you have sold something (either directly through a stock sale or indirectly through the company selling its balance sheet).

    Just let me insist once again that I do not mean with this that dividends are a bad idea. If you need cash from your investment then it is mostly a question of choice or preference whether to sell portions of the company directly (by selling stock) or indirectly (by receiving dividends). In fact I personally prefer dividends.
    Feb 28, 2014. 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Actually Might Be Relevant [View article]
    I'm quite beginning to believe so
    Feb 28, 2014. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Actually Might Be Relevant [View article]
    Sorry Bangalla, I must have not have expressed myself correctly. Your premise must be correct.
    Feb 27, 2014. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment