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    <title>Saj Karsan - Seeking Alpha</title>
    <description>'Saj Karsan' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com</description>
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      <name>SeekingAlpha.com</name>
    </author>
    <link>http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan</link>
    <item>
      <title>Imation Should Do Well in the New Normal</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/172373-imation-should-do-well-in-the-new-normal?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">172373</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>Imation (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/imn' title='More opinion and analysis of IMN'>IMN</a>) is a 1996 spin-off of the innovative 3M Company (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/mmm' title='More opinion and analysis of MMM'>MMM</a>) that produces storage media from DVDs to backup tapes. It owns the #1 brand/sales position in many of the segments in which it competes. Unfortunately, it doesn't generate returns on equity anywhere near 3M, but on the other hand it doesn't trade at a massive premium to its book value either. Imation has equity of over $900 million but trades for just over $300 million.</p><p>With <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/09/xing-mobile.html">some noted exceptions</a>, companies trading with such low price to book ratios are not likely to be profitable or they wouldn't trade at such low levels. Imation is no anomaly in this regard. Due to various restructuring, pension, asset impairment and litigation charges, along with the current recession, Imation hasn't been profitable for the better part of three years. But last quarter, even including the charges, Imation managed to eke out a small profit, which could suggest they are making progress in aligning costs with revenues.</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2009 02:13:41 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>Imation (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/imn' title='More opinion and analysis of IMN'>IMN</a>) is a 1996 spin-off of the innovative 3M Company (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/mmm' title='More opinion and analysis of MMM'>MMM</a>) that produces storage media from DVDs to backup tapes. It owns the #1 brand/sales position in many of the segments in which it competes. Unfortunately, it doesn't generate returns on equity anywhere near 3M, but on the other hand it doesn't trade at a massive premium to its book value either. Imation has equity of over $900 million but trades for just over $300 million.</p><p>With <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/09/xing-mobile.html">some noted exceptions</a>, companies trading with such low price to book ratios are not likely to be profitable or they wouldn't trade at such low levels. Imation is no anomaly in this regard. Due to various restructuring, pension, asset impairment and litigation charges, along with the current recession, Imation hasn't been profitable for the better part of three years. But last quarter, even including the charges, Imation managed to eke out a small profit, which could suggest they are making progress in aligning costs with revenues.</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/172373-imation-should-do-well-in-the-new-normal?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/imn">IMN</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/mmm">MMM</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Little Book that Beats the Market: Magic Formula Encapsulated</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/172036-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-magic-formula-encapsulated?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">172036</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><b><i>Joel Greenblatt, the book's author, is a value investor extraordinaire and a professor at Columbia's business school. In the book, Greenblatt discusses and justifies the &quot;Magic Formula&quot;, a stock selection method that allows individual investors to beat the market using value investing.  </i></b></p> <p><b><i>Click here for summaries of chapters <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/167120-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-1-7">1-7</a>, <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/168646-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-8-11">8-11,</a> <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/170437-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-12-13">12 &amp; 13</a></i></b></p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:22:09 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p><b><i>Joel Greenblatt, the book's author, is a value investor extraordinaire and a professor at Columbia's business school. In the book, Greenblatt discusses and justifies the &quot;Magic Formula&quot;, a stock selection method that allows individual investors to beat the market using value investing.  </i></b></p> <p><b><i>Click here for summaries of chapters <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/167120-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-1-7">1-7</a>, <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/168646-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-8-11">8-11,</a> <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/170437-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-12-13">12 &amp; 13</a></i></b></p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/172036-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-magic-formula-encapsulated?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>ADDVantage Technologies: Using My Circle of Competence to Determine Actual Value</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/172034-addvantage-technologies-using-my-circle-of-competence-to-determine-actual-value?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">172034</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>A company that makes for a <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/09/banks-and-value-investing.html">good investment for one value investor does not necessarily make for a good investment</a> for another value investor. How can this be? A company may appear cheap on an earnings or asset basis, but future earnings may not live up to current earnings and assets may be written down. Therefore, only when a company falls within an investor's circle of competence can he ascertain whether a stock is trading at a discount.</p><p>Consider ADDvantage Technologies (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aey' title='More opinion and analysis of AEY'>AEY</a>), a hardware provider for the cable television industry. The company is cheap on many metrics, trading near its net current asset value with a P/B of 0.75 and a P/E of 6. Though sales have fallen dramatically through this downturn, the company has maintained profitability.</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:13:07 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>A company that makes for a <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/09/banks-and-value-investing.html">good investment for one value investor does not necessarily make for a good investment</a> for another value investor. How can this be? A company may appear cheap on an earnings or asset basis, but future earnings may not live up to current earnings and assets may be written down. Therefore, only when a company falls within an investor's circle of competence can he ascertain whether a stock is trading at a discount.</p><p>Consider ADDvantage Technologies (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aey' title='More opinion and analysis of AEY'>AEY</a>), a hardware provider for the cable television industry. The company is cheap on many metrics, trading near its net current asset value with a P/B of 0.75 and a P/E of 6. Though sales have fallen dramatically through this downturn, the company has maintained profitability.</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/172034-addvantage-technologies-using-my-circle-of-competence-to-determine-actual-value?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aey">AEY</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Warren Buffett's 'Moats' Approach vs. Value Investing</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/171543-warren-buffett-s-moats-approach-vs-value-investing?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">171543</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<div>Though he studied under Ben Graham and has adopted many of Graham's investing principles, the world's greatest investor is not your typical value investor. He speaks of margins of safety and of buying companies at discounts, but over the years Buffett has shown a willingness to buy businesses for what appears to be full price, at least on a P/E basis. What allows Buffett to do this and still generate excellent returns is his ability to understand economic &quot;moats&quot; better than anyone else.</div><div>For example, making headlines this week was Buffett's purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/bni' title='More opinion and analysis of BNI'>BNI</a>), a railway freight business. While most value investors are using this recession as an opportunity to gobble up companies trading for low P/E and P/B values, Buffett goes out and buys a company for a P/E of 16 (using peak 2008 earnings as the denominator) and a P/B of 3. Ben Graham himself stated that <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/08/security-analysis-chapters-39-40-and-41.html">purchasing companies with P/E ratios above 16 amounts to speculation</a>, so what does Buffett do but make it his largest acquisition to date.</div><div>But flirting with high P/E's is nothing new for the Oracle of Omaha, as he has done so on several occasions. What all the high P/E acquisitions have in common, however, is a moat that allows each business to earn superior profits. For example, consider the return on equity &#40;ROE&#41; of BNSF over the last few years:</div><p><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/5/saupload_bnsf_roe.jpg" style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center;" hspace="6" vspace="6" /></p><div>With the large size of Buffett's portfolio, his investment universe is fairly limited. While most of us have the benefit of being able to turn over every last rock to look for cheap companies, Buffett is limited to selecting from ocean-sized boulders. It is for this reason that BNSF offers an attractive investment opportunity for Buffett. With the ROE depicted above, Buffett will be able to allocate capital to this company (earnings from other businesses, insurance float etc.) and earn returns between 15% and 20%.</div><div>If it were this easy, though, couldn't all large investors and insurers follow this formula? The advantage Buffett has over everybody else, however, is his superior ability to understand competitive advantages (or &quot;moats&quot;): he believes/knows that the ROE depicted above will continue for the foreseeable future. While he will be second-guessed (always has been, and always will be), his ability to predict moats has proven to be second to none.</div><div>Individual investors can certainly learn from Buffett, but are cautioned to avoid investing like him unless they know what they are doing. While Buffett likely benefits from having more information, more knowledge and a higher understanding of business than most investors, his major disadvantage is that his investing universe is so limited. Individuals are thus better off finding value in the analyst-ignored small cap universe where stock prices are the most inefficient and where <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/10/stock-ideas.html">companies trading at large discounts</a> can be found.</div>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:34:01 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><div>Though he studied under Ben Graham and has adopted many of Graham's investing principles, the world's greatest investor is not your typical value investor. He speaks of margins of safety and of buying companies at discounts, but over the years Buffett has shown a willingness to buy businesses for what appears to be full price, at least on a P/E basis. What allows Buffett to do this and still generate excellent returns is his ability to understand economic &quot;moats&quot; better than anyone else.</div><div>For example, making headlines this week was Buffett's purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/bni' title='More opinion and analysis of BNI'>BNI</a>), a railway freight business. While most value investors are using this recession as an opportunity to gobble up companies trading for low P/E and P/B values, Buffett goes out and buys a company for a P/E of 16 (using peak 2008 earnings as the denominator) and a P/B of 3. Ben Graham himself stated that <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/08/security-analysis-chapters-39-40-and-41.html">purchasing companies with P/E ratios above 16 amounts to speculation</a>, so what does Buffett do but make it his largest acquisition to date.</div><div>But flirting with high P/E's is nothing new for the Oracle of Omaha, as he has done so on several occasions. What all the high P/E acquisitions have in common, however, is a moat that allows each business to earn superior profits. For example, consider the return on equity &#40;ROE&#41; of BNSF over the last few years:</div><p><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/5/saupload_bnsf_roe.jpg" style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center;" hspace="6" vspace="6" /></p><div>With the large size of Buffett's portfolio, his investment universe is fairly limited. While most of us have the benefit of being able to turn over every last rock to look for cheap companies, Buffett is limited to selecting from ocean-sized boulders. It is for this reason that BNSF offers an attractive investment opportunity for Buffett. With the ROE depicted above, Buffett will be able to allocate capital to this company (earnings from other businesses, insurance float etc.) and earn returns between 15% and 20%.</div><div>If it were this easy, though, couldn't all large investors and insurers follow this formula? The advantage Buffett has over everybody else, however, is his superior ability to understand competitive advantages (or &quot;moats&quot;): he believes/knows that the ROE depicted above will continue for the foreseeable future. While he will be second-guessed (always has been, and always will be), his ability to predict moats has proven to be second to none.</div><div>Individual investors can certainly learn from Buffett, but are cautioned to avoid investing like him unless they know what they are doing. While Buffett likely benefits from having more information, more knowledge and a higher understanding of business than most investors, his major disadvantage is that his investing universe is so limited. Individuals are thus better off finding value in the analyst-ignored small cap universe where stock prices are the most inefficient and where <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/10/stock-ideas.html">companies trading at large discounts</a> can be found.</div><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/171543-warren-buffett-s-moats-approach-vs-value-investing?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/bni">BNI</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Key Tronic: When to Look Beyond High P/E Values</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/171394-key-tronic-when-to-look-beyond-high-p-e-values?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">171394</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>As the market has risen throughout most of this year, many<a href="http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&amp;category=marketcommentary&amp;newsletterid=1488"> market observers have noted that P/E values are looking rather inflated</a> from a historical standpoint. But of course, earnings are lower than usual this year due to reduced revenue that was caused by financial shocks. So as investors, should we be willing to pay a higher P/E for now, on the assumption that earnings will soon pick up?</p><p>When considering the market in the aggregate, this is a very difficult question to answer. Some companies will have <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/04/cost-structure-is-key.html">cost structures that prove too rigid</a>, and will therefore be unable to adapt to a lower revenue environment. Other companies, on the other hand, will have flexible cost structures or will see revenue continue to grow, despite the downturn. But to determine which of these forces will exert more pull on the market's earnings in the coming quarters is not only extremely difficult, but unnecessary: Unless you're trying to value the entire index, you don't have to answer this question for the market in the aggregate. Instead, you can try to answer this question for individual securities, which are much easier to understand.</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 03:09:05 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>As the market has risen throughout most of this year, many<a href="http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&amp;category=marketcommentary&amp;newsletterid=1488"> market observers have noted that P/E values are looking rather inflated</a> from a historical standpoint. But of course, earnings are lower than usual this year due to reduced revenue that was caused by financial shocks. So as investors, should we be willing to pay a higher P/E for now, on the assumption that earnings will soon pick up?</p><p>When considering the market in the aggregate, this is a very difficult question to answer. Some companies will have <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/04/cost-structure-is-key.html">cost structures that prove too rigid</a>, and will therefore be unable to adapt to a lower revenue environment. Other companies, on the other hand, will have flexible cost structures or will see revenue continue to grow, despite the downturn. But to determine which of these forces will exert more pull on the market's earnings in the coming quarters is not only extremely difficult, but unnecessary: Unless you're trying to value the entire index, you don't have to answer this question for the market in the aggregate. Instead, you can try to answer this question for individual securities, which are much easier to understand.</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/171394-key-tronic-when-to-look-beyond-high-p-e-values?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ktcc">KTCC</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Increased Consumer Spending Does Not Make Us Better Off</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/171050-increased-consumer-spending-does-not-make-us-better-off?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">171050</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>Contrary to popular belief, increases in aggregate spending (e.g. consumer spending) is <i>not </i>what leads us to a higher standard of living. Nevertheless, both in good times and bad, consumer spending is the gauge the media focuses on as a barometer of how we're doing; but consumer spending is only a measure of short-term demand. Increases in standard of living, however, come from our ability to do our jobs more efficiently.<br><br>For example, consider a plant that employs 1000 workers and makes one widget per day. Suppose one day the plant manager comes up with a new method of making that widget, and only requires 500 workers to do it. The remaining workers just got richer, because now the revenue from the widgets sold is spread over fewer workers. (In practice, of course, this process would take time, and the higher profits would be shared among owners and laborers through market forces. Furthermore, the 500 laid off workers would undergo short-term difficulties until they could join a company that's expanding.)</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:40:04 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>Contrary to popular belief, increases in aggregate spending (e.g. consumer spending) is <i>not </i>what leads us to a higher standard of living. Nevertheless, both in good times and bad, consumer spending is the gauge the media focuses on as a barometer of how we're doing; but consumer spending is only a measure of short-term demand. Increases in standard of living, however, come from our ability to do our jobs more efficiently.<br><br>For example, consider a plant that employs 1000 workers and makes one widget per day. Suppose one day the plant manager comes up with a new method of making that widget, and only requires 500 workers to do it. The remaining workers just got richer, because now the revenue from the widgets sold is spread over fewer workers. (In practice, of course, this process would take time, and the higher profits would be shared among owners and laborers through market forces. Furthermore, the 500 laid off workers would undergo short-term difficulties until they could join a company that's expanding.)</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/171050-increased-consumer-spending-does-not-make-us-better-off?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Canam's Earnings Pop</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/170569-canam-s-earnings-pop?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">170569</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<div>For companies with high fixed costs, earnings are particularly sensitive to drops in revenue. As a result, we have seen <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/08/price-vs-value.html">many such companies show negative earnings</a> over the last few quarters. But while reported revenue figures have continued to decline, some backlog numbers have started to tick up, suggesting that for some, higher revenue is on the way. This higher revenue can translate into <i>much</i> higher earnings for companies with fixed costs. For such companies that currently trade at low earnings multiples, strong price appreciation potential exists.</div><div> </div><div>For example, consider Canam (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cam' title='More opinion and analysis of CAM'>CAM</a>), a company that specializes in designing and building heavy-construction components. Year-over-year quarterly revenue is down over 30%, resulting in a reduction to operating income of over 60%. Despite the revenue shocks, the company has managed to eek out small profits every quarter, and now trades at a P/E multiple under 10 using earnings over the last four quarters.</div><div> </div><div>But these are trough earnings for a company with high fixed costs. Consider the company's backlog over the last several quarters, shown below:</div><div> </div><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/2/saupload_canam_backlog.jpg" style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center;" /><div>It would appear that revenues will soon be on the mend. Furthermore, subsequent to the end of the Q3 2009 quarter, the company was awarded a $100+ million contract to help build the new roof for BC Place Stadium in Vancouver, which is not included in the above chart.</div><div> </div><div>In addition to the fact that Canam trades at a cheap multiple to trough earnings, Canam has no net debt, and management has recently signaled that it will be buying back and canceling shares. For value investors looking to buy good businesses at attractive prices, Canam may offer such an opportunity.</div>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 11:54:44 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><div>For companies with high fixed costs, earnings are particularly sensitive to drops in revenue. As a result, we have seen <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/08/price-vs-value.html">many such companies show negative earnings</a> over the last few quarters. But while reported revenue figures have continued to decline, some backlog numbers have started to tick up, suggesting that for some, higher revenue is on the way. This higher revenue can translate into <i>much</i> higher earnings for companies with fixed costs. For such companies that currently trade at low earnings multiples, strong price appreciation potential exists.</div><div> </div><div>For example, consider Canam (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cam' title='More opinion and analysis of CAM'>CAM</a>), a company that specializes in designing and building heavy-construction components. Year-over-year quarterly revenue is down over 30%, resulting in a reduction to operating income of over 60%. Despite the revenue shocks, the company has managed to eek out small profits every quarter, and now trades at a P/E multiple under 10 using earnings over the last four quarters.</div><div> </div><div>But these are trough earnings for a company with high fixed costs. Consider the company's backlog over the last several quarters, shown below:</div><div> </div><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/2/saupload_canam_backlog.jpg" style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center;" /><div>It would appear that revenues will soon be on the mend. Furthermore, subsequent to the end of the Q3 2009 quarter, the company was awarded a $100+ million contract to help build the new roof for BC Place Stadium in Vancouver, which is not included in the above chart.</div><div> </div><div>In addition to the fact that Canam trades at a cheap multiple to trough earnings, Canam has no net debt, and management has recently signaled that it will be buying back and canceling shares. For value investors looking to buy good businesses at attractive prices, Canam may offer such an opportunity.</div><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/170569-canam-s-earnings-pop?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cam">CAM</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Little Book that Beats the Market: Chapters 12 &amp; 13</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/170437-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-12-13?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">170437</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><b><i>Joel Greenblatt, the book's author, is a value investor extraordinaire and a professor at Columbia's business school. In the book, Greenblatt discusses and justifies the "Magic Formula", a stock selection method that allows individual investors to beat the market using value investing.</i></b></p><p><strong>Chapter 12</strong><strong>: Choosing a broker/fund manager</strong></p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:59:28 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p><b><i>Joel Greenblatt, the book's author, is a value investor extraordinaire and a professor at Columbia's business school. In the book, Greenblatt discusses and justifies the "Magic Formula", a stock selection method that allows individual investors to beat the market using value investing.</i></b></p><p><strong>Chapter 12</strong><strong>: Choosing a broker/fund manager</strong></p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/170437-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-12-13?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Conn's: Retailer with Bank-Type Risk</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/170111-conn-s-retailer-with-bank-type-risk?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">170111</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>When <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/02/could-you-have-seen-circuit-citys.html">Circuit City declared bankruptcy</a> near the beginning of the recession, opportunities were created for other electronics retailers. One company that aggressively stepped forward to fill the void is Conn's Inc. (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/conn' title='More opinion and analysis of CONN'>CONN</a>), a home appliance and electronics retailer. Conn's even took over some of Circuit City's previous locations on its quest of aggressively growing its market share.</p><div>A quick look at the financial statements shows that Conn's has indeed been successful at grabbing consumers, with flat year-over-year sales (in an otherwise negative environment for consumer electronics) and decent profitability. In the last four quarters, Conn's has earned operating income of almost $40 million while the company trades for just $150 million on the market. The numbers are enticing until you consider how the company is making its sales: on credit.</div><div> </div><div>Indeed, the company's &quot;receivables&quot; balance has increased from $30 million to $140 million in the last year, as the company counts the increase as sales and then subsequently counts on consumers to pay that money back (using repossession as an incentive). In the past, the company has sold these receivables to an off-balance sheet qualifying special purpose entity &#40;QSPE&#41; to fund these consumer financings, but the QSPE's funding is currently near its limit, requiring the company to show the difference on its balance sheet.</div><div> </div><div>In principle, there is nothing wrong with a business that lends money to consumers to finance purchases. But investors must recognize that this is not a simple business: this is partly a retailer, and partly a bank, and therefore contains risks inherent to both industries. From a bank-type risk point of view, the company has had to take on $130 million in debt to fund these receivables; if consumers have trouble paying their bills, this spells trouble. From a retail-type risk point of view, the company has over $150 million in operating lease commitments; if the company can't find enough consumers that pay cash or that have good credit, this also spells trouble.</div><div> </div><div>Reported sales numbers don't always tell the story. In this case, past sales numbers, however accurate they may have been at the time, may be covering for the fact buyers can't actually afford items they purchased on credit. On the other hand, it's entirely possible that the company is extremely accurate with its credit scoring system and its strategy will pay off in the long run. Either way, to avoid being surprised by the downside risk, investors must be aware that they cannot simply evaluate this company as a retailer alone, but must take into account the <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/09/banks-and-value-investing.html">risks that are inherent in investing in banks</a> as well.</div><div> </div><div><b>Disclosure: None</b></div>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 30 Oct 2009 05:46:53 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>When <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/02/could-you-have-seen-circuit-citys.html">Circuit City declared bankruptcy</a> near the beginning of the recession, opportunities were created for other electronics retailers. One company that aggressively stepped forward to fill the void is Conn's Inc. (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/conn' title='More opinion and analysis of CONN'>CONN</a>), a home appliance and electronics retailer. Conn's even took over some of Circuit City's previous locations on its quest of aggressively growing its market share.</p><div>A quick look at the financial statements shows that Conn's has indeed been successful at grabbing consumers, with flat year-over-year sales (in an otherwise negative environment for consumer electronics) and decent profitability. In the last four quarters, Conn's has earned operating income of almost $40 million while the company trades for just $150 million on the market. The numbers are enticing until you consider how the company is making its sales: on credit.</div><div> </div><div>Indeed, the company's &quot;receivables&quot; balance has increased from $30 million to $140 million in the last year, as the company counts the increase as sales and then subsequently counts on consumers to pay that money back (using repossession as an incentive). In the past, the company has sold these receivables to an off-balance sheet qualifying special purpose entity &#40;QSPE&#41; to fund these consumer financings, but the QSPE's funding is currently near its limit, requiring the company to show the difference on its balance sheet.</div><div> </div><div>In principle, there is nothing wrong with a business that lends money to consumers to finance purchases. But investors must recognize that this is not a simple business: this is partly a retailer, and partly a bank, and therefore contains risks inherent to both industries. From a bank-type risk point of view, the company has had to take on $130 million in debt to fund these receivables; if consumers have trouble paying their bills, this spells trouble. From a retail-type risk point of view, the company has over $150 million in operating lease commitments; if the company can't find enough consumers that pay cash or that have good credit, this also spells trouble.</div><div> </div><div>Reported sales numbers don't always tell the story. In this case, past sales numbers, however accurate they may have been at the time, may be covering for the fact buyers can't actually afford items they purchased on credit. On the other hand, it's entirely possible that the company is extremely accurate with its credit scoring system and its strategy will pay off in the long run. Either way, to avoid being surprised by the downside risk, investors must be aware that they cannot simply evaluate this company as a retailer alone, but must take into account the <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/09/banks-and-value-investing.html">risks that are inherent in investing in banks</a> as well.</div><div> </div><div><b>Disclosure: None</b></div><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/170111-conn-s-retailer-with-bank-type-risk?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/conn">CONN</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Why S&amp;P500 Indexes Are No Place for Value Investors</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/169757-why-s-p500-indexes-are-no-place-for-value-investors?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">169757</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>We looked <a href="http://barelkarsan.com/2008/10/understanding-dow.html">here</a> at the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and saw why it's not a great measure of <span>U.S. stock performance, despite being a favourite index when it comes to media coverage. The S&amp;P 500 is a much better barometer for the health of <span>U.S. stocks, though an understanding of its calculation methodology is important in order to understand the limits to its usefulness.<br><br>The S&amp;P 500 is essentially a market-value weighted index*, meaning a company's influence on the index is proportional to its size. This is much different than <a href="http://barelkarsan.com/2008/10/understanding-dow.html">how the Dow Jones Industrial Average is calculated</a>. Also unlike the Dow, the 500 stocks that comprise the index are chosen such that the index proportionally represents the economy's various industries. As such, the S&amp;P 500 is not just the 500 largest companies. One interesting note is that despite being larger than almost every company in the index, Berkshire Hathaway (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/brk.a' title='More opinion and analysis of BRK.A'>BRK.A</a>) is not a component of the S&amp;P 500.</span></span></p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 05:38:42 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>We looked <a href="http://barelkarsan.com/2008/10/understanding-dow.html">here</a> at the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and saw why it's not a great measure of <span>U.S. stock performance, despite being a favourite index when it comes to media coverage. The S&amp;P 500 is a much better barometer for the health of <span>U.S. stocks, though an understanding of its calculation methodology is important in order to understand the limits to its usefulness.<br><br>The S&amp;P 500 is essentially a market-value weighted index*, meaning a company's influence on the index is proportional to its size. This is much different than <a href="http://barelkarsan.com/2008/10/understanding-dow.html">how the Dow Jones Industrial Average is calculated</a>. Also unlike the Dow, the 500 stocks that comprise the index are chosen such that the index proportionally represents the economy's various industries. As such, the S&amp;P 500 is not just the 500 largest companies. One interesting note is that despite being larger than almost every company in the index, Berkshire Hathaway (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/brk.a' title='More opinion and analysis of BRK.A'>BRK.A</a>) is not a component of the S&amp;P 500.</span></span></p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/169757-why-s-p500-indexes-are-no-place-for-value-investors?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/bep">BEP</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/brk.a">BRK.A</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/brk.b">BRK.B</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/dia">DIA</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ivv">IVV</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/pbp">PBP</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/spy">SPY</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/sso">SSO</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>LCA Vision: A Value Opportunity Presents Itself Again</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/169371-lca-vision-a-value-opportunity-presents-itself-again?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">169371</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>At times, value investing can feel like trading. While value investors should always purchase with the expectation that a stock will be a long-term holding, some stocks can be so volatile that they go from offering a margin of safety to offering a reasonable price and back again within the span of a few weeks! And as <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/05/warren-buffett-invitational.html">Warren Buffett told us</a> when we met with him last year, volatility (shunned as an undesired property by the mainstream finance industry) is the friend of the value investor.</p><p>For example, earlier this month we discussed how LCA Vision (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/lcav' title='More opinion and analysis of LCAV'>LCAV</a>) <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/10/when-price-meets-value.html">may have appreciated to a conservative estimate of its intrinsic value</a>. But just three weeks following that article, its price had fallen by 40%, offering investors the opportunity to buy <i>back</i> <i>in</i> at depressed values!</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 03:15:27 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>At times, value investing can feel like trading. While value investors should always purchase with the expectation that a stock will be a long-term holding, some stocks can be so volatile that they go from offering a margin of safety to offering a reasonable price and back again within the span of a few weeks! And as <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/05/warren-buffett-invitational.html">Warren Buffett told us</a> when we met with him last year, volatility (shunned as an undesired property by the mainstream finance industry) is the friend of the value investor.</p><p>For example, earlier this month we discussed how LCA Vision (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/lcav' title='More opinion and analysis of LCAV'>LCAV</a>) <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/10/when-price-meets-value.html">may have appreciated to a conservative estimate of its intrinsic value</a>. But just three weeks following that article, its price had fallen by 40%, offering investors the opportunity to buy <i>back</i> <i>in</i> at depressed values!</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/169371-lca-vision-a-value-opportunity-presents-itself-again?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/lcav">LCAV</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Ridley Utilizes Recession to Grow Value</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/168979-ridley-utilizes-recession-to-grow-value?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">168979</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>Ridley Inc. (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/rcl' title='More opinion and analysis of RCL'>RCL</a>) manufactures and sells animal nutrition products to North American meat, milk and egg producers. As such, it operates in a fairly stable industry, as demand for many feed products tends to hold steady through recessions.</p><p>Despite the stability of this industry, and Ridley's role as one of the larger players with $600 million of annual sales, the company is conservatively capitalized with only $13 million of debt compared to equity of $150 million. Meanwhile, the company trades for just $100 million, while it has brought in combined operating cash flow of over $60 million over the last four years.</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2009 02:31:16 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>Ridley Inc. (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/rcl' title='More opinion and analysis of RCL'>RCL</a>) manufactures and sells animal nutrition products to North American meat, milk and egg producers. As such, it operates in a fairly stable industry, as demand for many feed products tends to hold steady through recessions.</p><p>Despite the stability of this industry, and Ridley's role as one of the larger players with $600 million of annual sales, the company is conservatively capitalized with only $13 million of debt compared to equity of $150 million. Meanwhile, the company trades for just $100 million, while it has brought in combined operating cash flow of over $60 million over the last four years.</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/168979-ridley-utilizes-recession-to-grow-value?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/diib.pk">DIIB.PK</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/drlaf.pk">DRLAF.PK</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ffh">FFH</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/rdlyf.pk">RDLYF.PK</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Little Book that Beats the Market: Chapters 8-11</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/168646-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-8-11?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">168646</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><b><i>Joel Greenblatt, the  author of The Little Book That Beats the Market, is a value investor extraordinaire and a professor at Columbia's business school. In the book, Greenblatt discusses and justifies the &quot;Magic Formula&quot;, a stock selection method that allows individual investors to beat the market using value investing. Read Summaries of chapters 1-7 <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/167120-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-1-7">here</a>.<br></i></b></p><p><strong>Chapters 8 and 9: Understanding why the formula works<br></strong></p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 26 Oct 2009 01:42:39 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p><b><i>Joel Greenblatt, the  author of The Little Book That Beats the Market, is a value investor extraordinaire and a professor at Columbia's business school. In the book, Greenblatt discusses and justifies the &quot;Magic Formula&quot;, a stock selection method that allows individual investors to beat the market using value investing. Read Summaries of chapters 1-7 <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/167120-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-1-7">here</a>.<br></i></b></p><p><strong>Chapters 8 and 9: Understanding why the formula works<br></strong></p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/168646-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-8-11?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Analyzing Analysts</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/168041-analyzing-analysts?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">168041</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_mentality">herd mentality</a> is well-documented outside the investment world. While it is not given much thought within the investment world (exceptions include <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/09/intelligent-investor-chapter-3.html">discussions on the topic</a> from both <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/09/intelligent-investor-chapter-3.html">Ben Graham</a> and <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/08/investment-zoo-chapter-13-looking-for.html?widgetType=BlogArchive&amp;widgetId=BlogArchive1&amp;action=toggle&amp;dir=close&amp;toggle=YEARLY-1199163600000&amp;toggleopen=MONTHLY-1220241600000">Stephen Jarislowsky</a>), it plays a large role in the investment decision-making process: investors feel much more comfortable buying stocks when they believe that others are also piling in. To that end, investors often rely on analysts, who are expected to be &quot;experts&quot; in guiding investors on stock selection</p><p>But just how good are analysts at predicting the directions of stocks? A decent paper (though dated) is available <a href="http://www.jstor.org/pss/2978641?cookieSet=1">here</a> which discusses the difficulties in truly evaluating analysts. However, at the very least, if analysts were at all useful, they should be able to tell the difference between a company that has value and one that is about to go bankrupt. Yet these two very different realities in a company's status continue to baffle these &quot;experts&quot;.</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 22 Oct 2009 03:10:38 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_mentality">herd mentality</a> is well-documented outside the investment world. While it is not given much thought within the investment world (exceptions include <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/09/intelligent-investor-chapter-3.html">discussions on the topic</a> from both <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/09/intelligent-investor-chapter-3.html">Ben Graham</a> and <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/08/investment-zoo-chapter-13-looking-for.html?widgetType=BlogArchive&amp;widgetId=BlogArchive1&amp;action=toggle&amp;dir=close&amp;toggle=YEARLY-1199163600000&amp;toggleopen=MONTHLY-1220241600000">Stephen Jarislowsky</a>), it plays a large role in the investment decision-making process: investors feel much more comfortable buying stocks when they believe that others are also piling in. To that end, investors often rely on analysts, who are expected to be &quot;experts&quot; in guiding investors on stock selection</p><p>But just how good are analysts at predicting the directions of stocks? A decent paper (though dated) is available <a href="http://www.jstor.org/pss/2978641?cookieSet=1">here</a> which discusses the difficulties in truly evaluating analysts. However, at the very least, if analysts were at all useful, they should be able to tell the difference between a company that has value and one that is about to go bankrupt. Yet these two very different realities in a company's status continue to baffle these &quot;experts&quot;.</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/168041-analyzing-analysts?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/lehmq.pk">LEHMQ.PK</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Apple: Not All Smooth Sailing Ahead</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/167644-apple-not-all-smooth-sailing-ahead?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">167644</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>Once again, Apple (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aapl' title='More opinion and analysis of AAPL'>AAPL</a>) impressed investors with results that handily beat analyst expectations. The company continued to move iPods en masse, and sold a record number of Mac computers and iPhones, staunchly defying the drag on consumer spending that has been the bane of this economy.</p><p>There can be little doubt that Apple is a well-run, exceedingly competent company. That much can be determined with a quick look at the company's financial statements, where equity returns of around 25% are commonplace. What makes those returns even more impressive is the fact that no leverage is employed in garnering these exceptional returns: Apple has no debt!</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:16:19 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>Once again, Apple (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aapl' title='More opinion and analysis of AAPL'>AAPL</a>) impressed investors with results that handily beat analyst expectations. The company continued to move iPods en masse, and sold a record number of Mac computers and iPhones, staunchly defying the drag on consumer spending that has been the bane of this economy.</p><p>There can be little doubt that Apple is a well-run, exceedingly competent company. That much can be determined with a quick look at the company's financial statements, where equity returns of around 25% are commonplace. What makes those returns even more impressive is the fact that no leverage is employed in garnering these exceptional returns: Apple has no debt!</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/167644-apple-not-all-smooth-sailing-ahead?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aapl">AAPL</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Pro-Forma's, One Time Costs and Accounting Acrobatics</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/167442-pro-forma-s-one-time-costs-and-accounting-acrobatics?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">167442</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>Companies are required to release their financial results according to GAAP. Often, however, companies will also release what they call &quot;Pro Forma&quot; statements, where certain &quot;one-time&quot; costs are often removed. These statements, managements say, better reflect the earnings power of the company. However, investors are urged not to take management's word, but rather to consider the &quot;one-time&quot; costs to make their own determinations as to whether these apply in the future.<br><br>For example, managements have often excluded early plant retirement costs or losses on the sales of equipment from pro forma statements. While these items may not occur annually, the investor must apply business sense to determine if these are likely to re-occur.</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 02:59:25 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>Companies are required to release their financial results according to GAAP. Often, however, companies will also release what they call &quot;Pro Forma&quot; statements, where certain &quot;one-time&quot; costs are often removed. These statements, managements say, better reflect the earnings power of the company. However, investors are urged not to take management's word, but rather to consider the &quot;one-time&quot; costs to make their own determinations as to whether these apply in the future.<br><br>For example, managements have often excluded early plant retirement costs or losses on the sales of equipment from pro forma statements. While these items may not occur annually, the investor must apply business sense to determine if these are likely to re-occur.</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/167442-pro-forma-s-one-time-costs-and-accounting-acrobatics?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Little Book that Beats the Market: Chapters 1-7</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/167120-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-1-7?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">167120</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><b><i>Joel Greenblatt, the author of &quot;The Little Book that Beats the Market&quot;, is a value investor extraordinaire and a professor at Columbia's business school. In the book, Greenblatt discusses and justifies the &quot;Magic Formula&quot;, a stock selection method that allows individual investors to beat the market using value investing.</i></b></p><p>Greenblatt starts the book with a discussion about buying a hypothetical business. Basically, the value of a business is the cash it is going to generate over its lifetime, with money that arrives in the future not quite being worth money in the present (since money in the present can be lent to the government for a &quot;risk-free&quot; return and therefore would be worth even more in the future). The concept of how much to pay for a business is briefly discussed. If a business is presumed to be worth $1500, then it makes no sense to pay $1500 for that business since you already have $1500 in hand!</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sun, 18 Oct 2009 07:28:14 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p><b><i>Joel Greenblatt, the author of &quot;The Little Book that Beats the Market&quot;, is a value investor extraordinaire and a professor at Columbia's business school. In the book, Greenblatt discusses and justifies the &quot;Magic Formula&quot;, a stock selection method that allows individual investors to beat the market using value investing.</i></b></p><p>Greenblatt starts the book with a discussion about buying a hypothetical business. Basically, the value of a business is the cash it is going to generate over its lifetime, with money that arrives in the future not quite being worth money in the present (since money in the present can be lent to the government for a &quot;risk-free&quot; return and therefore would be worth even more in the future). The concept of how much to pay for a business is briefly discussed. If a business is presumed to be worth $1500, then it makes no sense to pay $1500 for that business since you already have $1500 in hand!</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/167120-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market-chapters-1-7?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/anf">ANF</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ge">GE</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ibm">IBM</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/mtlqq.pk">MTLQQ.PK</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>30 Years of Price to Book - Comstock</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/166973-30-years-of-price-to-book-comstock?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">166973</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<div>Investors will often look at the <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/06/s-500-historical-pe-vs-todays-pe.html">P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500</a> in order to gauge how expensive stocks are. Earnings, the denominator of that equation, are quite volatile, however. In a year like this one, where massive write-downs plague income statements, it is difficult to determine the market's true earning power.</div><div> </div><div>Another method to gauge investor sentiment, though not nearly as popular, is the market's price to book ratio. Unlike earnings, book values are not nearly as volatile (unless of course, you are an over-leveraged bank), and therefore they can give us a decent indicator of how the market is valuing company assets. Courtesy of Comstock Partners, here is the price to book value of the S&amp;P 500 over the last 30 years (original version <a href="http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/030c.pdf">here</a>):</div><div> </div><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/10/16/saupload_price_to_book_market.jpg" style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center;" /><div>There are a couple of interesting observations to note in the above chart. First, on a price to book basis, during this recession the market did not fall to the depressed levels seen in the late 1970s. Second, the market's price to book value currently appears to be fairly close to its 30-year average (denoted by the horizontal blue line), despite the fact that the outlook for economic growth appears tepid.</div><div> </div><div>Of course, there are a number of factors that make historical comparisons of price to book values difficult. Accounting methods of how book value is calculated have changed over the years, with an increasing trend towards making book value better reflect market value. Furthermore, there has been a shift when it comes to industries in the S&amp;P 500, with manufacturing companies playing a decreasing role while knowledge-based companies (e.g. software, consulting, other services etc.), where hard-assets are not a determining factor, comprise a larger portion of the index.</div><div> </div><div>For the above reasons, long-term comparisons of historical price to book ratios can be problematic. Nevertheless, investors can look at the price to book ratio over recent periods as a decent gauge of investor sentiment. Clearly, price to book ratios fell dramatically from their 2008 highs, but a large rally has resulted in a recovery of a significant portion of those losses. The above chart won't tell you where the price to book ratio will go, but it will tell you that investor sentiment has recovered to a large extent and that downside risks have increased as a result.</div>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 16 Oct 2009 08:57:45 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><div>Investors will often look at the <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/06/s-500-historical-pe-vs-todays-pe.html">P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500</a> in order to gauge how expensive stocks are. Earnings, the denominator of that equation, are quite volatile, however. In a year like this one, where massive write-downs plague income statements, it is difficult to determine the market's true earning power.</div><div> </div><div>Another method to gauge investor sentiment, though not nearly as popular, is the market's price to book ratio. Unlike earnings, book values are not nearly as volatile (unless of course, you are an over-leveraged bank), and therefore they can give us a decent indicator of how the market is valuing company assets. Courtesy of Comstock Partners, here is the price to book value of the S&amp;P 500 over the last 30 years (original version <a href="http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/030c.pdf">here</a>):</div><div> </div><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/10/16/saupload_price_to_book_market.jpg" style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center;" /><div>There are a couple of interesting observations to note in the above chart. First, on a price to book basis, during this recession the market did not fall to the depressed levels seen in the late 1970s. Second, the market's price to book value currently appears to be fairly close to its 30-year average (denoted by the horizontal blue line), despite the fact that the outlook for economic growth appears tepid.</div><div> </div><div>Of course, there are a number of factors that make historical comparisons of price to book values difficult. Accounting methods of how book value is calculated have changed over the years, with an increasing trend towards making book value better reflect market value. Furthermore, there has been a shift when it comes to industries in the S&amp;P 500, with manufacturing companies playing a decreasing role while knowledge-based companies (e.g. software, consulting, other services etc.), where hard-assets are not a determining factor, comprise a larger portion of the index.</div><div> </div><div>For the above reasons, long-term comparisons of historical price to book ratios can be problematic. Nevertheless, investors can look at the price to book ratio over recent periods as a decent gauge of investor sentiment. Clearly, price to book ratios fell dramatically from their 2008 highs, but a large rally has resulted in a recovery of a significant portion of those losses. The above chart won't tell you where the price to book ratio will go, but it will tell you that investor sentiment has recovered to a large extent and that downside risks have increased as a result.</div><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/166973-30-years-of-price-to-book-comstock?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/spy">SPY</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Borrowing to Buy Stocks</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/166623-borrowing-to-buy-stocks?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">166623</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>Margin debt on the NYSE can be a useful indicator of how <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor#Mr._Market">Mr. Market</a> is feeling. If optimism is high, people tend to borrow more to buy stocks. Previously, we've seen how <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/10/margin-use-on-nyse.html">margin debt through the last recession fell mightily</a> and did not return to its previous highs for several years. Through last year and the first part of this year, it <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/06/margin-debt.html">looked like margin debt would follow a similar path</a>.</p><div> </div><p>In the last six months, however, investor appetite for risk appears to have returned, with margin debt making a small comeback. Here is a look at the use of margin debt on the NYSE through August of 2009: <em>(Click to enlarge)</em></p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2009 04:22:59 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><p>Margin debt on the NYSE can be a useful indicator of how <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor#Mr._Market">Mr. Market</a> is feeling. If optimism is high, people tend to borrow more to buy stocks. Previously, we've seen how <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/10/margin-use-on-nyse.html">margin debt through the last recession fell mightily</a> and did not return to its previous highs for several years. Through last year and the first part of this year, it <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/2009/06/margin-debt.html">looked like margin debt would follow a similar path</a>.</p><div> </div><p>In the last six months, however, investor appetite for risk appears to have returned, with margin debt making a small comeback. Here is a look at the use of margin debt on the NYSE through August of 2009: <em>(Click to enlarge)</em></p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/166623-borrowing-to-buy-stocks?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Surprising Results for Market Timing Study</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/166228-surprising-results-for-market-timing-study?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">166228</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<div><p><span></p><p><span><p>Many participants in the stock market base their buy and sell decisions on attempts to time the market. The idea is to buy into the market just before prices rise, and sell before they decline. Many studies have shown that it is very difficult to correctly time the market. But assuming you had superior foresight, how often would you have to be right in order to beat a buy and hold investor?</p></span></p></span></div>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2009 09:41:26 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Saj Karsan</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><a href='http://barelkarsan.blogspot.com/'>Saj Karsan</a> submits:</strong><div><p><span></p><p><span><p>Many participants in the stock market base their buy and sell decisions on attempts to time the market. The idea is to buy into the market just before prices rise, and sell before they decline. Many studies have shown that it is very difficult to correctly time the market. But assuming you had superior foresight, how often would you have to be right in order to beat a buy and hold investor?</p></span></p></span></div><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/166228-surprising-results-for-market-timing-study?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/saj-karsan">Saj Karsan</category>
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