Seeking Alpha

Saj Karsan

View as an RSS Feed
View Saj Karsan's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • hhgregg's Sell-Off Is Overdone [View article]
    Just to provide an update, I continue to hold the shares despite the run-up. I am encouraged by management's recent moves to slow store expansion and use its cash flow to instead buy its own shares. Hopefully the problems in the recent quarter really were weather related. We should find out more in the coming quarter...
    Jul 1 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBI Group: Now That's More Like It [View article]
    That's a nice article, thanks Penny. I'm linking it here for those interested:

    Looks like someone wants to speak out in the paper in order to get better terms by getting more investors to vote no one more time, and wants to stay anonymous in the process.

    It's an interesting strategy. The source is right that it's a divide and conquer strategy on the part of the company, but for some reason such consent fees are legal and it may work. If the source is telling the truth about having "a committee formed that owns close to 30% of the bonds", it's unlikely the company can get anything through without the co-operation of that group. As such, it wouldn't really matter what other investors vote. *However*, if he's wrong and those investors don't end up voting the way he thinks, investors who are not part of that committee will get screwed out of the large consent fee if they don't vote yes.

    As such, I might say small investors would be better off voting yes. If it's blocked, great, they don't lose anything and may get slightly better terms. But if it's not blocked, they will lose out in a big way by not getting the consent fee.
    Jun 1 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sum Of Parts Analysis Indicates Amrep Is Substantially Undervalued [View article]
    Why do you say that? Isn't it *more* attractive now that the price is lower? They seem to have enough cash to pay off the leaving customer, and most of the debt isn't due for a while.
    May 23 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sum Of Parts Analysis Indicates Amrep Is Substantially Undervalued [View article]
    I'm getting more interested as the price drops, but I'm still not loving it.

    One thing I don't understand is why gross margin this year on land sales is consistently in the single digits if this land is worth so much. I suppose it's possible there are fixed costs to the COGS component that don't leverage very well when the sales numbers are so low, but if not I worry the land isn't worth all that much right now.

    By the way, did you ever get a response from management regarding your Jan 6th comment whereby you were going to contact them about unlocking the land value?
    May 23 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBI Group Management Tries To Put One Over On Debt Holders [View article]
    Why do you think it will increase the value of the debentures? They fell about 10% on this offer, and they are still priced higher in the market than the other debentures. Once their maturity extends past the other debentures, I would expect them to trade *lower* than the other debentures, which they do not right now.

    Also, what immediate 7% return are you referring to? The consent fee? That's not immediate for some reason (it should be, in my opinion, and is in the Pinetree example I compared to); they don't plan on paying that out until 2016, though, so there is plenty of risk that it never gets paid.
    May 18 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Torstar Even Cheaper After Sale Of Harlequin [View article]
    It's funny you should say that, because Torstar owns Metro. Obviously, it makes money from advertisers, not subscribers. The huge local market shares enjoyed by the entire Torstar group allows them to spread functions like advertising/marketing/... over more units, which is the competitive advantage I'm referring to.
    May 7 02:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Geophysical Services: A Compelling Small-Cap Turnaround Story [View article]
    Good job holding off on this, guys (other than the guy with too much hubris). Looks like bankruptcy.
    Mar 21 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tellza: Undiscovered Growth At A Very Cheap Price [View article]
    Hi Mike, it's the routing software, that the company believes gives it a cost advantage, and that it may be able to license to other carriers.
    Dec 19 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nortech Offers Investors A Selling Opportunity [View article]
    Hi User666,

    That is actually mentioned in the 2nd last paragraph of the article. Two things wrt it:

    1) The market did not react to that news; it only reacted a couple of weeks later following the earnings report

    2) As discussed in the article, the company has a history of a volatile stock price, so one can't really say this kind of event is the only reason for this exceptional movement.
    Nov 25 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Data Group Debentures Trade At Massive Discount [View article]
    I understand. I wish I could find more US ideas at this price, but I've had to look north to find a market that isn't so giddy.
    Oct 10 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Follow The 'Pros' Into Pro-Dex? [View article]
    Fantastic article
    Oct 5 03:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pinetree Offers Debt Holders A Bone [View article]
    Sep 13 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Torstar Shines Bright [View article]
    Hi Rob,

    It looks cheap, but because management has plowed so much money into purchases and investments, I have a hard time getting comfortable with it. If these investments pan out, Glacier is probably very cheap. If they don't, it's probably not. Too hard for me to understand.
    Sep 10 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Torstar Shines Bright [View article]
    Thanks, Keubiko.

    Whether this is a long or short will come down to what proportion of the company's recent problems are temporary vs long-term. I tend to believe the former, whereas you the latter.

    Please note that I did mention the pension obligation in the "Risks" section. Please also note that I did not place a fair value P/E of 18 on this stock, but rather a more modest 12..
    Sep 5 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pinetree Offers Debt Holders A Bone [View article]
    I agree, it was not a painless process. However, I would guess that most of the debt is held by big firms that are accredited investors. Also, if someone were to assert that they are accredited, I doubt it will be verified, it's really just there for ass-covering purposes by the company.
    Aug 29 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment