Saj Karsan

No Room for Error at Air T

Hi Hokie,

Sorry for the late reply.

While you are right that AIRT has thrived in the past despite having these risks, this does not mean the risks do not exist going forward.

As an example, consider Escalade, which recently had a 30-year relationship with Sears cut short all of a sudden. Article here: www.barelkarsan.com/20...

Do You Trust Your Investment Sources?

Hi Maxe,

Unfortunately, those google ads provide a good portion of my revenue. Still, it's probably better to have those ads and have the content of the site warning readers to do their homework, rather than have no ads but have the content of the site be paid promotions.

I have readers asking me for advice on stocks all the time, and since I can hardly be the only blogger that gets asked, it seems only prudent to warn readers who weren't around back when you wised up.

No Room for Error at Air T

Hi Hokie,

I did not respond to most of your comments because they were not relevant to the article. The article is about AIRT's revenue risks. I'm not telling investors that AIRT is a bad investment; in fact, I mentioned its strong profitability, its dividend yield, and suggested it could turn out to be a terrific long-term investment. But investors should know what they are buying, and so understanding the risks is important and a frequently discussed theme on my site.

By the way, your statement regarding the previous AF contracts is also false. The current contract just announced last week is indeed subject to annual cancellation, but the previous contracts were for 4 years, 3 years and 3 years, so that situation has become more risky.

No Room for Error at Air T

Hi guys,

Thanks for your comments.

Sorry about not mentioning the most recently announced AF contract. Between the time I wrote the article and scheduled it for publishing, the contract was announced. However, it should be noted that the contract can be cancelled after one year, so the revenue risks discussed in the article, both related to that contract and related to the other segments, still remain going forward.

Don't Lose Sight of LCA Vision's Value

Hi TAT, I'm not claiming rediscovery of value caused the appreciation. But I am saying buying businesses below their worth puts investors in a position to profit, as downside is low and upside is high (relatively).

Value Investors Know Insmed's Cash Wealth Offers No Margin of Safety

Hi guys, thanks for your comments. I have added some thoughts here: www.barelkarsan.com/20...

Borrowing to Buy Stocks

I agree, logicalt. The headline is atrocious.

Auto Inventories: Cycling Down or Up?

Hi Spawn,

It is merely educational in nature. Popular media outlets rarely discuss inventory levels (preferring to focus on sales levels) and also do not put current numbers in their historical context (other than comparing them to levels of one month or one year ago, that is). Furthermore, the article notes that a revenue bounce can be expected for auto parts suppliers, since outputs were cut more than sales have depressed.

StealthGas: Shipping Your Dollars Away

Hi Miletius,

You're right that LPG is more stable, but spot rates have still fallen. The point of the article is that there is no cash to return to shareholders due to high borrowing and commitments for new ships (which cannot be cancelled per the company's 20-F filing).

Margin Debt: Stabilized, But Not Predictive

Hi Anthony,

The data is available from the NYSE:

www.nyxdata.com/nyseda...

Book Review: Even Buffett Isn't Perfect, Part 3

Sorry Jo, I've made the correction on my site and SA should do so soon.

New Dragon Asia: How Much of a Bargain?

Hi Glen,

You are right that the options are worth much less now. But when I wrote the article, the stock was about 200% higher than it is now.

Shuffle Master Is No Ace

Thanks for the update, Paulie. You are right they have now refinanced. Of course, the equity injection dilutes the value of each share, so that has to be taken into consideration as well...

Good Returns

Yeah, Seeking Alpha replaces my links to the quote with their own, and have done so erroneously in this case. My apologies for the confusion.

DryClean/EnviroStar: Customers and Suppliers Reduce Risk

Hi Ankit,

The investment horizon of my fund is of a long-term nature. As such, short-term cyclical issues are not a major concern. Instead, they create an opportunity, as prices come down for temporary problems, allowing the long-term investor to take advantage.


On Nov 26 01:35 PM Ankit Gupta wrote:

> Have you noticed that 154 of their 227 US locations are in Florida?
> Does that concern you at all?
>
> Florida's markets have been hit pretty hard and so do you have any
> concerns about those locations not doing so well?