Comments on Saket Mundra's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/saket-mundra/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/149844-the-solvency-crisis?source=feed#comment-594955 594955 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 09:57:46 -0400
can anyone fill me in on what other phenomenons occur when interest fall below 0 on nominal basis?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136759-economic-recovery-or-the-fed-effect?source=feed#comment-498902 498902 Mon, 11 May 2009 10:25:41 -0400
Only if you read harlequin romance novels.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136759-economic-recovery-or-the-fed-effect?source=feed#comment-498682 498682 Mon, 11 May 2009 08:16:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136759-economic-recovery-or-the-fed-effect?source=feed#comment-497821 497821 Sun, 10 May 2009 13:13:42 -0400

The current stock market move against increasing interest rates reminds me of a "feelgood" addict. This too shall pass!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136759-economic-recovery-or-the-fed-effect?source=feed#comment-497745 497745 Sun, 10 May 2009 12:19:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135995-tata-s-nano-housing-will-change-the-low-cost-housing-market?source=feed#comment-493847 493847 Thu, 07 May 2009 11:20:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135995-tata-s-nano-housing-will-change-the-low-cost-housing-market?source=feed#comment-493833 493833 Thu, 07 May 2009 11:15:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134783-indian-inflation-easing-is-a-myth?source=feed#comment-490274 490274 Tue, 05 May 2009 11:22:45 -0400
Any Indian housewife will tell you that she is paying more for her daily needs, while the Government is coercing banks to reduce loan and deposit rates to jump-start a stuttering economy. It is really a double-whammy for Indian households whose savings go into ever-decreasing bank fixed deposits.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133494-indian-economy-the-road-ahead-looks-tougher-than-expected?source=feed#comment-487165 487165 I THINK THE AUTHOR OF THESE ARTICLE ALONG WITH MOST OF EXPERTS HAVE > TOTALLY FAULTY ANALYSIS. > INDIAN ECONOMY IS A TRULY AN UNIQUE SITUATION IN INVESTMENT WORLD. > WHENVER, THIS GOLBAL BUBBLE THAT STARTED WITH HIGHLY SUBSIDIZED > (THROUGH TAX BREAK FOR 50 YEARS FOLLOWED BY FNMA GURANTEES BY US > GOVT ON FINANCING) WITH US HOUSING WILL BUST ALONG WITH BUBBLE RECKLESS > SPENDING OF US CONSUMER, THERE WILL BE A NEW WORLD LEADER THAT WILL > EMERGE. MUCH THE SAME WAY USA EMERGED AS A LEADER AFTER WORLD WAR > 2. PARRLALLEL WITH USA POST WORLD WAR 2 AND INDIA TODAY IS DRAMATIC. > POST WORLD WAR 2, BRITAN AND WESTERN EUROPE WAS IN A HUGE DEBT MUCH > THE SAME WAY US AND WESTERN EUROPE IS TODAY. USA AT THE TIME WAS > THE LOW COST PRODUCER WITH ROE AND ROC (RETURN ON EQUITY AND RETURN > OF CAPITAL) WAS THE HIGHEST IN EVERY INDUSTRY MUCH THE SAME WAY INDIA > IS TODAY. USA POST WW2 HAD LOWEST DEBT COMPARE TO PEARS. BELIEVE > IT OR NOT, INDIA HAS MUCH LOWER DEBT COMPARE TO USA AND WEST EUROPE. > AND MOST OF THE DEBT IS INTERNAL AS OPPOSE TO CURRENT USA IS EXTERNA. > SAME SCENERIO EXISITED IN FAVOR OF USA POST WW2. USA POST WW2 HAD > THE MOST EDUCATED WORK FORCE (SPECIALLY ALL GERMAN AND RUSSIAN SCIENTIST > MOVED TO USA). THE SAME EXISIT FOR INDIA. > CHINA ON THE HAND LOT OF US DOLLARS AS RESERVE. THEY WILL SOON FIND > OUT THAT IF THEY SELL OR USE LOT OF THESE DOLLARS, DOLLARS WILL DECLINE > SUBSTANTIALLY. SO, EXACTLY AFTER THIS DECLINE WE ALL BE SURPRISED > HOW MANY DOLLARS THEY HAVE. AND OFFCORSE, FLOW OF CAPITAL WHICH > THIS AUTHORS TALKS ABOUT, THAT THERE WILL NOT BE QUESITONS WHEN CAPITAL > WHEN ALLOWED TO FLOW FREELY, WILL ALWAYS FLOW TO MOST EFFICIENT ECONOMY-I.E. > THE ECONOMY WITH HIGHEST ROE AND ROC. WHICH INDIAN COMPANIES HAVE > ONE OF THE HIGHEST ROE AND ROC. > USA HAS ALWAY MAINTAINED HIGHEST LIVING STARNDARDS BECAUSE CAPITAL > WAS EFFICIENTLY DEPLOYED AND IT WAS EVIDANT WITH ROE/ROC. NOW INDIA > HAS THAT ADVANTAGE. EVERY MAJOR INDUSTRY, INDIAN COMPANY IS LEADER > IN ROE/ROC. OIL, REFINING OR E&P, METALS, MINING, ALTERNATE > ENERGY WIND GENRATION, AIRLINES, AUTO, AUTO PARTS AND EVEN SUCH AS > AUTOANCIALRY, IT; YOU WILL FIND ARE THE LOWEST COST PRODUCERS AND > GIVING BETTER ROE/ROC. > ]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 04:43:52 -0400
I would suggest all to please read Reserve Bank of India's Quarterly and Yearly survey released in April. I hope following points answer your questions

1) I am talking about next year or so and you are talking about Long term (10 Years or so).

2) I am talking about current economic numbers, and you are suggesting about Demographics and anticipated growth.

3) ROE and ROC are a function of number of parameters including Leverage. I hope you have taken into account high leverages of some of the Indian companies.

4) Regarding Public Private Partnership - I suggest you please update your figures for construction of Roads and other Infrastructure in the last five years. Planning and allocating money is very different from execution on ground.

In the end, I would like to understand, why has the Indian Government and RBI lowering its GDP and other economic (Exports, FDI) estimates every 3 months over the last year?

Regards

Saket Mundra

On May 02 07:56 PM ART DAVE wrote:

> I THINK THE AUTHOR OF THESE ARTICLE ALONG WITH MOST OF EXPERTS HAVE
> TOTALLY FAULTY ANALYSIS.
> INDIAN ECONOMY IS A TRULY AN UNIQUE SITUATION IN INVESTMENT WORLD.
> WHENVER, THIS GOLBAL BUBBLE THAT STARTED WITH HIGHLY SUBSIDIZED
> (THROUGH TAX BREAK FOR 50 YEARS FOLLOWED BY FNMA GURANTEES BY US
> GOVT ON FINANCING) WITH US HOUSING WILL BUST ALONG WITH BUBBLE RECKLESS
> SPENDING OF US CONSUMER, THERE WILL BE A NEW WORLD LEADER THAT WILL
> EMERGE. MUCH THE SAME WAY USA EMERGED AS A LEADER AFTER WORLD WAR
> 2. PARRLALLEL WITH USA POST WORLD WAR 2 AND INDIA TODAY IS DRAMATIC.
> POST WORLD WAR 2, BRITAN AND WESTERN EUROPE WAS IN A HUGE DEBT MUCH
> THE SAME WAY US AND WESTERN EUROPE IS TODAY. USA AT THE TIME WAS
> THE LOW COST PRODUCER WITH ROE AND ROC (RETURN ON EQUITY AND RETURN
> OF CAPITAL) WAS THE HIGHEST IN EVERY INDUSTRY MUCH THE SAME WAY INDIA
> IS TODAY. USA POST WW2 HAD LOWEST DEBT COMPARE TO PEARS. BELIEVE
> IT OR NOT, INDIA HAS MUCH LOWER DEBT COMPARE TO USA AND WEST EUROPE.
> AND MOST OF THE DEBT IS INTERNAL AS OPPOSE TO CURRENT USA IS EXTERNA.
> SAME SCENERIO EXISITED IN FAVOR OF USA POST WW2. USA POST WW2 HAD
> THE MOST EDUCATED WORK FORCE (SPECIALLY ALL GERMAN AND RUSSIAN SCIENTIST
> MOVED TO USA). THE SAME EXISIT FOR INDIA.
> CHINA ON THE HAND LOT OF US DOLLARS AS RESERVE. THEY WILL SOON FIND
> OUT THAT IF THEY SELL OR USE LOT OF THESE DOLLARS, DOLLARS WILL DECLINE
> SUBSTANTIALLY. SO, EXACTLY AFTER THIS DECLINE WE ALL BE SURPRISED
> HOW MANY DOLLARS THEY HAVE. AND OFFCORSE, FLOW OF CAPITAL WHICH
> THIS AUTHORS TALKS ABOUT, THAT THERE WILL NOT BE QUESITONS WHEN CAPITAL
> WHEN ALLOWED TO FLOW FREELY, WILL ALWAYS FLOW TO MOST EFFICIENT ECONOMY-I.E.
> THE ECONOMY WITH HIGHEST ROE AND ROC. WHICH INDIAN COMPANIES HAVE
> ONE OF THE HIGHEST ROE AND ROC.
> USA HAS ALWAY MAINTAINED HIGHEST LIVING STARNDARDS BECAUSE CAPITAL
> WAS EFFICIENTLY DEPLOYED AND IT WAS EVIDANT WITH ROE/ROC. NOW INDIA
> HAS THAT ADVANTAGE. EVERY MAJOR INDUSTRY, INDIAN COMPANY IS LEADER
> IN ROE/ROC. OIL, REFINING OR E&P, METALS, MINING, ALTERNATE
> ENERGY WIND GENRATION, AIRLINES, AUTO, AUTO PARTS AND EVEN SUCH AS
> AUTOANCIALRY, IT; YOU WILL FIND ARE THE LOWEST COST PRODUCERS AND
> GIVING BETTER ROE/ROC.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133494-indian-economy-the-road-ahead-looks-tougher-than-expected?source=feed#comment-486927 486927 Sat, 02 May 2009 20:27:43 -0400 HOWEVER, INDIA HAS AN ADVANTAGE IN THAT THEY CAN STIMULATE ECONOMY MUCH MORE EFFECTIVLY SINCE ITS CORPORATE STRUCTURE IS VERY COST EFFECTIVE. FOR INSTANCE, RBI HAS ISSUED 100 BILLION USD BOND FOR INFRASTRUCURE. MOST OF THESE INFRASTRUCUTRE BONDS WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH PROJECT THAT ARE BOT METHODS, WHERE PRIVATE ENTERPIRSE WILL DECIDE, BUILD AND OPERATE THOSE INFASTRUCTURE ASSETTS.
CHINA AND EVEN USA, DOES NOT HAVE THESE TYPE OF ORGANIZATION. BULK OF THE STIMULATION WILL BE WASTED IN GOVERNMENT BURACRACY AND BRIDGES TO NO WHERE. THE COST OF GOVERNMENT PROJECTS IN USA ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE SAME PROJECTS DONE IN PRIVATE SECORE AND WASTEFUL AND VERY TINY % OF ACTUAL SPENDING WILL END UP STIMULATING THE ECONOMY.
THIS IS WHERE MY PREVIOUS ARGUMENT COMES IN HANDY. CHINA AND USA ECONOMY IS SO WASTEFUL (DUE TO LOW ROE/ROC) SUCH THAT VERY SMALL PART OF STIMULS WILL RESULT IN ECONOMIC BENIFIT AND RESULTING INFLATION WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE BENIFIT.
THUS, REVIVING ECONMY REQUIRES GOOD ECONOMIC BASE (EFFFICIENT ECONOMY -ROE AND ROC TO BE OVER 20%). THE STIULUS WILL ONLY BE EFFECTIVE IF IT IS SPENT IN A SYSTEM WHICH GENERATES MORE GDP COMPARE TO INFALTION. EVERY TIME GDP IS GENERATED IN INDIA, DOWN STREAM GDP IS MUCH HIGHER. SUCH AS WHEN POWER PLANT IS GENERATED WITH 1 BILLION DOLLAR WILL GENERATE MUCH MORE GDP DOWN STREAM THAN 1 BILLION OF RETAIL SALES ARE GENERATED. BECAUSE US ECONOMY SATURATED, DOWN STREAM GENRATION IS NOT POSSIBLE UNLESS US IS THE LOW COST PRODUCER. WITH CHINA, DOWN STREAM DEMANDS ARE NOT SUSTANABLE AS IT IS IN INDIA SINCE CHINA HAS BUILD ITS ECONOMY ONLY ON EXPORT MODEL. IT IS NOT EASY TO GENERATE INTERNAL DEMAND THAT CAN BE SUSTAINABLE. TO GENEARATE INTERNAL DEMAND, CHINA WILL HAVE TO DEVELOPE AND EDUCATE THEIR RURAL AREAS, PROVIDE THEM WITH SKILLS AND INFRASTRUCTURE THAT WILL CREATE MARKETABLE SKILLS AND THAT CAN SUSTAIN DEMANDS. EVEN THOUGH, THEY HAVE DEVELOPE FEW URBANS ARES, 80-90% OF CHINA ARE MUCH FURTHER BEHIND THAN INDIA IN THAT RESPECT. ALTHOUGH, THEY HAVE STARTED IN RECENT TIMES, IT WILL TAKE THE 10-12 YEARS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT RESULT CAN COME. EVEN S KOREA, SINGAPORE, TAIWAN TOOK 5-7 YEARS BUT THEY WERE MUCH SMALLER COUNTRY AND CHINA WILL TAKE MUCH MORE TIME
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133494-indian-economy-the-road-ahead-looks-tougher-than-expected?source=feed#comment-486916 486916 Sat, 02 May 2009 19:56:20 -0400 INDIAN ECONOMY IS A TRULY AN UNIQUE SITUATION IN INVESTMENT WORLD. WHENVER, THIS GOLBAL BUBBLE THAT STARTED WITH HIGHLY SUBSIDIZED (THROUGH TAX BREAK FOR 50 YEARS FOLLOWED BY FNMA GURANTEES BY US GOVT ON FINANCING) WITH US HOUSING WILL BUST ALONG WITH BUBBLE RECKLESS SPENDING OF US CONSUMER, THERE WILL BE A NEW WORLD LEADER THAT WILL EMERGE. MUCH THE SAME WAY USA EMERGED AS A LEADER AFTER WORLD WAR 2. PARRLALLEL WITH USA POST WORLD WAR 2 AND INDIA TODAY IS DRAMATIC. POST WORLD WAR 2, BRITAN AND WESTERN EUROPE WAS IN A HUGE DEBT MUCH THE SAME WAY US AND WESTERN EUROPE IS TODAY. USA AT THE TIME WAS THE LOW COST PRODUCER WITH ROE AND ROC (RETURN ON EQUITY AND RETURN OF CAPITAL) WAS THE HIGHEST IN EVERY INDUSTRY MUCH THE SAME WAY INDIA IS TODAY. USA POST WW2 HAD LOWEST DEBT COMPARE TO PEARS. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, INDIA HAS MUCH LOWER DEBT COMPARE TO USA AND WEST EUROPE. AND MOST OF THE DEBT IS INTERNAL AS OPPOSE TO CURRENT USA IS EXTERNA. SAME SCENERIO EXISITED IN FAVOR OF USA POST WW2. USA POST WW2 HAD THE MOST EDUCATED WORK FORCE (SPECIALLY ALL GERMAN AND RUSSIAN SCIENTIST MOVED TO USA). THE SAME EXISIT FOR INDIA.
CHINA ON THE HAND LOT OF US DOLLARS AS RESERVE. THEY WILL SOON FIND OUT THAT IF THEY SELL OR USE LOT OF THESE DOLLARS, DOLLARS WILL DECLINE SUBSTANTIALLY. SO, EXACTLY AFTER THIS DECLINE WE ALL BE SURPRISED HOW MANY DOLLARS THEY HAVE. AND OFFCORSE, FLOW OF CAPITAL WHICH THIS AUTHORS TALKS ABOUT, THAT THERE WILL NOT BE QUESITONS WHEN CAPITAL WHEN ALLOWED TO FLOW FREELY, WILL ALWAYS FLOW TO MOST EFFICIENT ECONOMY-I.E. THE ECONOMY WITH HIGHEST ROE AND ROC. WHICH INDIAN COMPANIES HAVE ONE OF THE HIGHEST ROE AND ROC.
USA HAS ALWAY MAINTAINED HIGHEST LIVING STARNDARDS BECAUSE CAPITAL WAS EFFICIENTLY DEPLOYED AND IT WAS EVIDANT WITH ROE/ROC. NOW INDIA HAS THAT ADVANTAGE. EVERY MAJOR INDUSTRY, INDIAN COMPANY IS LEADER IN ROE/ROC. OIL, REFINING OR E&P, METALS, MINING, ALTERNATE ENERGY WIND GENRATION, AIRLINES, AUTO, AUTO PARTS AND EVEN SUCH AS AUTOANCIALRY, IT; YOU WILL FIND ARE THE LOWEST COST PRODUCERS AND GIVING BETTER ROE/ROC.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133494-indian-economy-the-road-ahead-looks-tougher-than-expected?source=feed#comment-482047 482047 Wed, 29 Apr 2009 01:14:54 -0400
I have been long Nifty since March, when we hit the lows. I have been booking profits all this while, and carrying my positions with Trailing Stop Loss. I hope we all would agree, that stock market movements don't strictly follow economic activity.

Also, I wish to respond to CaptainJohann's comments. Though there has been demand in the rural segment and discounts offered on a large variety of products, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) has still not come down. Might be a good idea to visit our nearest super market or grocery store and ask about prices of vegetables, food articles. What I want to bring to your notice here is that the speculative price rise was nothing to cheer about, but it has very less to do with a common man's monthly expenditure and budget.

Demand for NANO must be seen in context with overall Auto demand. For the last three months the numbers reported by the sector have been quite overwhelming, given the environment.

But I still agree that price moderation shall really help and its a good sign. Nevertheless price moderation at the cost of jobs and growth is something I am seriously doubtful and cautious of.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133494-indian-economy-the-road-ahead-looks-tougher-than-expected?source=feed#comment-480740 480740 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:32:20 -0400
I was just wondering your article is short on the Indian economy buy you are long on the NIfty.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133494-indian-economy-the-road-ahead-looks-tougher-than-expected?source=feed#comment-480700 480700 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:17:03 -0400 There is defenitely less hiring of IT professionals but then then their pay bracket was way heigher than normal before.Pilots were given pay packets due to demand and supply gap.But as the current NANO booking shows, there is demand for good products with normal cost.I as a middleclass retired man is happy that the flat panel TV is costing only 30,000, cameras, camcorders etc all costing almost 50%.House prices which was artifically jacked up is coming down due to lack of speculative money. I realy enjoy this global depression. I hope it lasts and recovery is slow for middleclass and rural labour atleast.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133494-indian-economy-the-road-ahead-looks-tougher-than-expected?source=feed#comment-480391 480391 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 04:48:22 -0400 If you find your government feels genuinely limited re stimulus by its Fiscal Deficit, you might want to be thankful - "stimulus" has a lousy track record, as we in the west are currently illustrating.
Personally, I expect India to do better than most these next few years. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133275-what-s-fueling-the-rally?source=feed#comment-480125 480125 We were in a mode in the fal where everything was falling apart and > it was not clear what companies or economies would survive. That > situation could not persist forever. Now, we have a long laundry > lists of issues globally that will impair growth with the strongest > impairment likely in the west. That said, we also have evidence that > many companies have not been toppled over and a number of key regions, > like China, are doing quite well. That is a reason to be selectively, > cautiously optimistic. We are probably still in a bear market rally > but it will take more than laundry lists of problems to derail it. > When the market starts seeing real failures again, or data that proves > growth will not be returning - something to seriously depress it, > then we will see the big sell-off. Until then, look for consolidation > followed by, possibly, another leg higher.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 20:09:35 -0400
I agree 100%. Frankly, I've been pleasantly surprised by some of the tolerably decent numbers coming out of some of the non-financial firms (of course, the "decent numbers" coming from the financials are horses of a totally different color).

If China is successful in stimulating domestic consumption, and commodity export driven economies of some of the other EMs, there could well be a de-coupling globally.


On Apr 27 10:28 AM kelm wrote:

> We were in a mode in the fal where everything was falling apart and
> it was not clear what companies or economies would survive. That
> situation could not persist forever. Now, we have a long laundry
> lists of issues globally that will impair growth with the strongest
> impairment likely in the west. That said, we also have evidence that
> many companies have not been toppled over and a number of key regions,
> like China, are doing quite well. That is a reason to be selectively,
> cautiously optimistic. We are probably still in a bear market rally
> but it will take more than laundry lists of problems to derail it.
> When the market starts seeing real failures again, or data that proves
> growth will not be returning - something to seriously depress it,
> then we will see the big sell-off. Until then, look for consolidation
> followed by, possibly, another leg higher.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133275-what-s-fueling-the-rally?source=feed#comment-479144 479144 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 11:07:55 -0400 misguided optimism?
smoke and mirrors?
bread and circuses?
a combination of the above in my amatuer opinion.
i have yet to find substance.







































]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133275-what-s-fueling-the-rally?source=feed#comment-479049 479049 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 10:28:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133275-what-s-fueling-the-rally?source=feed#comment-478864 478864 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 09:06:36 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133275-what-s-fueling-the-rally?source=feed#comment-478829 478829 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 08:48:51 -0400 Has anybody witnessed any good and true news to justify the good news?
Has anybody witnessed a confidence uptick?
Has anybody witnessed a change in politics for the better?
We all need help and soon.
By Johnathan Vrozos
johnathanvrozos.ca]]>