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Sal Demir

 
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  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    Thanks Bogus.

    As I always say, "Life is simple to people living in developed countries, they just f.in complicate it"
    Sep 14 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    Hi Bryce,

    So what's the issue here when Tesla is representing GAAP numbers first in each statement and then Non-GAAP to reconcile for long investors?

    You (and all the shorts here) make it sound like Tesla is only providing Non-Gaap numbers.

    They are providing both and clearly explaining everything. End of story.

    If you guys want to interpret this in a negative way, it's your call. Just like JP and many other shorts interpreted everything in a negative way and missed out on this investment's early, exponential gains.
    Sep 14 09:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    @xamd

    Thank you for your humble comment, you actually made an amazing point, really enjoyed reading it.

    Tesla's liability is included in each statement under GAAP numbers. Non-GAAP numbers are for reconciliation purposes for long investors to track the progress.

    The difference is how shorts and longs interpret these numbers. Shorts think Model S will sell for way less or nothing at all thus Tesla will lose money come Q3 2016, I think it will sell for at least the resale value (I'm aware I'm being very conservative), some other analysts claim on Bloomberg, CNBC, etc. that Tesla will make additional revenue and profit from the resales (Not accounted for in my pricing model, would be a nice positive addition to the share price), so it's really up to you to judge and estimate how well the unprecedented Model S (with best car, safest car, etc. awards) with way less parts to break down/maintain than an ICEV, electricity vs gas savings, free long distance driving if needed (superchargers), etc. will hold its value.

    Again, thank you for your awesome comment, really enjoyed your hoodie & dad example. Looking forward for your future comments.
    Sep 14 09:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    @Rik

    Very well said sir, I wish you actually acted on your thoughts. I really enjoyed your intelligent comments, thank you.

    @Tippy

    I'm shocked that you are an advisor & resident in Silicon Valley for 30 years and missed out on Tesla. Maybe this is because you've been "burnt" on previous promising companies and aren't that good at picking the right ones or maybe you've picked enough good ones and didn't want to risk your 30 years of gains on an infant company like Tesla but I seriously feel bad you didn't as I really like Silicon Valley (Moving there on November 5th) and would love to see every single resident prosper with its innovative culture.
    Sep 14 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    @Tippy @solucky

    I actually added more LEAPs on the day I read Goldman Sachs analyst's 1 paragraph "report" on Tesla. (I thought it was the funniest thing how all news site reported it as "Tesla report" when it was a 20+ page report about GM, Ford, etc. and included 1 paragraph about Tesla, raising the price target but saying it's overvalued:)

    So there you go, I bought more @ ~$130.

    Would I buy @ ~$165 today? No, I'd wait for another baseless article, report, etc. with a significant negative effect on the share price.
    Sep 14 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    @tom

    I gave you the "Most Stubborn Tesla Short on SA" prize above but Geez, I think we need to add "Ever" to the end :)

    There's no point of intelligently discussing with you since you never accept any points made by a Tsla long so I'll just ask you this... Why are you so passionately short Tsla? Do you have a personal issue w/the company, CEO, etc.?

    C'mon, you can tell us, we're all friends by now, we've been discussing for months. What's the real deal?
    Sep 14 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    On a separate note Alexia, thank you for your awesome comments, really enjoyed reading them.
    Sep 14 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    @tom

    I told you before my short friend, keep politics and investment separate, never a good idea.
    Sep 14 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    @tom

    Congratulations!!!. I think you just won the prize for the "most stubborn Tesla short on SA".

    Although JRP3, Rik, Fan all did their best to explain to you in a very informative, positive manner, you keep ignoring all this information and respond with the same theories based on JP's articles.

    One day, you'll look at all the Teslas rolling around you, the share price, news/documentaries about how an American company changed the whole global auto industry and scream "Damn you John Petersen, damn you and Axion!!!" while JP will be sipping on his morning coffee on his next French castle thinking "Man, I was one lousy investor but thank God my wife and I are great lawyers"
    Sep 14 08:57 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    @tom

    "Since we talking about imaginary, future cats like the 2016 Tesla Gen III, we need to compare the 2016 imaginary E-Golf."

    The key point here is that Tesla already has a product with EPA rated 265 and 206 mile range versions.

    Have you seen another company actually producing a compelling EV with 200+ mile EPA rated range?

    If your answer is no, then why do you make up fairy tales?
    Sep 14 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    @Sid @Samuel

    5S, 5C, etc.

    Unfortunately only incremental updates, no revolutionary ones. I'm glad I jumped ship (as I'm typing happily on my Macbook Pro:)
    Sep 14 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    @ Tftf @ BPC, @Tippy

    "Sal's numbers were wrong the first time he released his spreadsheet, they are still wrong. They are celebrating before half time and claiming such great returns, but I doubt the many of them have actually realized those returns and will be the first in line at the attorney crying foul when this thing implodes."

    If I worked for GS, BOFA, MS, or any famous firm and had the priviledge to publish my pricing model in Q4 2012, with the share price at ~$165 today, I'd be hailed as a genius. But I'm just a humble project manager working at a small finance company and can only publish on SA :)


    @ Solucky

    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    "And please calculate how many Tesla must invest to produce 600 000 cars / year."

    Above model is based on Tesla's Freemont factory's production including Model S, Model X and early Gen3/Model E Sedan & Crossover lines. The only additional investing Tesla needs to make in this factory are gradually adding new production lines for the next models and minor increases to existing infrastructure. With $700 million cash balance and additional cash coming in from Model S and X products, this will not be a problem.

    In case you're wondering why the model shows ~650,000 cars/year, this ex-GM, later GM-Toyota, later Tesla factory was designed to produce 500,000 cars/year. After watching National Geographic documentary " Megafactories - Tesla" and seeing the plans on a Bloomberg article where Tesla uses currently, I estimated they can produce ~650,000 cars with today's technology.
    Sep 14 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    "And additional calculate how many tesla must invest in production plant, supercharger stations ...."

    Above model is based on Tesla's Freemont factory's production including Model S, Model X and early Gen3/Model E Sedan & Crossover lines. The only additional investing Tesla needs to make in this factory are gradually adding new production lines for the next models and minor increases to existing infrastructure. With $700 million cash balance and additional cash coming in from Model S and X products, this will not be a problem.
    Sep 14 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    @ Tippy

    How do we like it today?

    Do you really think we, long investors, especially now with ~500% gain, care about daily fluctuations?

    Sometimes I get texts from my friends saying things like "Oh my God, it's up 10% today, you were right all along" I keep shaking my head since most of the people just don't get it, whether in a negative or positive way.

    As I said in my second article, Tesla is a long investment, there's no point of "timing the market" with this one, either buy the stock or some LEAPs and enjoy the gains.
    Sep 14 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    German car magazine raving about Model S vs more expensive Mercedes S 500 Long, BMW 750 L.

    Enough said :)
    Sep 14 04:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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