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Sal Demir

 
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  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    Thanks winfield, love the monty phyton reference :)
    Sep 14 04:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    http://bloom.bg/1eC6mNg

    Here's a Bloomberg article w/claims that Tesla will actually profit from the resale program. (not accounted for in my model, would be a positive upside)
    Sep 14 04:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    Here's a Bloomberg article w/claims that Tesla will actually profit from the resale program. (not accounted for in my model, would be a positive upside)

    http://bloom.bg/1eC6mNg
    Sep 14 04:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    I think the range discussion is way, way, way overblown. If you ask current Model S drivers and read their feedback so far, nobody, I mean not a single one complains about range. They obviously don't need to drive more than 200 miles/day (anybody knows who commutes+run errands for 200 miles/day?) and if they need to travel a long distance, they fly (In Europe, take a train too). For those who really want to take a "road trip", they either use the second car of the house (let's be honest, nobody dishing out ~$70+K for a car will have only one car in the house) or use the superchargers if they can.

    I do see hundreds of questions on Twitter, forums, etc. from skeptics still not understanding that they can charge the car overnight. And even when you explain to them, some just can't comprehend it :) Those people will see their friend, neighbor, etc. and comprehend it one day, hence they are the "laggards" from the "innovation adoption curve" from my second article.

    By the way, Frankfurt Car Show once again proved that Tesla won't have any viable competition for years. It's really sad to see such great companies showcase all these dorky little EVs.
    Sep 14 04:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    (Have to paste this since I've been MIA and haven't been / won't be responding timely, traveling in Europe earlier than expected)

    @tom

    If you really thought I wouldn't know Elon is the chairman and the largest shareholder in SCTY, you're really underestimating my knowledge on Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity, "Paypal Mafia" including Musk, X.com, etc.

    The funny thing is every time a short / skeptic accuses me of not being knowledgable enough, their accusation includes some basic missed point :)

    Back to the main point, I'd still like the CEO of any company I invest in having simultaneous or previous successful companies. It shows that he/she has a strong track record and can get things done rather than being stretched too thin.
    Sep 14 03:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    All I know is he bought a great car with his profits, sounds like a good deal to me.
    Sep 8 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    "Elon Musk certainly knows how to make money and build a great car, however limited in usefulness and widespread adoption"

    Patience my friend, patience. Revolutions don't happen overnight.
    Sep 8 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    @tom

    JP has been bashing Tesla since summer 2012, first it was Tesla burning cash/bankrupting in early 2013, then it was "masterfully squeezing" shorts, then it was "deceitful accounting" now he's claiming Tesla will run into battery supply issues "when it reaches 100-200K cars/year production"

    You see a pattern here?

    Ex-Axion executive / lawyer losing who knows how much on Axion's once $2000+ share price now 50 cents. Check out the stock.

    http://bit.ly/14DOAlI
    Sep 8 04:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    You shouldn't compare Model S (a large sedan) with M3 (a sports coupe) If you have ever driven both cars, you would have known the difference

    Please check back the price of 2013 BMW 3.20i vs 2009 M5 and 2013 Audi A4 vs 209 S7 and we'll talk.
    Sep 8 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    "How will tesla pay.

    1. new plants to increase there production
    2. a own battery production
    3. service network
    4. supercharger stations"

    1, 3, 4 are already being paid :)

    "Maybee VW offer there second or third E-Golf untill we see the GEN 3."

    Maybe E-Golf will have a 200 mile range... Oh wait, it only has a 75-80 mile range. Dang.
    Sep 8 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    You realize you're talking about a company who started building its first true product (Roadster wasn't built from zero by Tesla) for only a year. It's normal they will be working on improving production for a while before they reach demand levels.

    Musk also repeatedly said on earnings calls they are working hard to reach that point where they aren't production constraint.
    Sep 8 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    Yes, "Tesla boosters" including me like the fact that Tesla CEO is also the CEO of the first private company to reach orbit, first to deliver cargo / reach International Space Stations, has over $5Billion of order backlog including Canadian, German, Thai satellites, etc.

    If Jeff Bezos had a second, incredibly successful company with billions of dollars in the backlog, wouldn't you be a more confident investor in Amazon? It would definitely add 10-15% of confidence to my view.
    Sep 8 04:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    "The performance model is at 110 000 here, so it will have a mass market like ferraris :)."

    1. Model S isn't targeted for "mass market" you're mentioning, Gen3/Model E is targeted for that.
    2. How much is the cheapest Ferrari in Germany? I bet you it's not 110K.

    "On the IAA you see now a bunch of E-Cars inclusive E-Golf, E-BMW maybee Tesla will be too late."

    Have you seen the design, range, specs of E-Golf, E-BMW (i3 & i8)?
    No comparison, completely different cars.
    Sep 8 04:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    @tom

    I get your point, just don't agree Tesla will lose any money. You believe they will.

    Hopefully you'll be around in 2016 Q3 to discuss further.
    Sep 8 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    "If you like your facts a bit more objective, then you go with authors like John Petersen."

    You're right, we should go with the guy who claimed in fall 2012 that Tesla will bankrupt in early 2013, then changed it to "masterful short squeeze" as if Tesla plotted the squeeze, then he focused on Non-GAAP numbers and now he admits Tesla will get to 100-200K production but will run into battery supply problems.

    What's next? When OEMs increase supply and Tesla doesn't have a problem, he'll claim that Tesla will stay as a niche 500K production company not mainstream.

    By that time the share price will be min. $1,000 and who knows where you'll be.

    Amazing track record, you should really "go with this guy"
    Sep 7 11:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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