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Sal Demir

 
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  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    @Sid

    I've had every single iPhone since 08, use a Macbook Pro at home, use iCloud, etc.

    I still love Apple as a company and its products but I just don't see future profit growth / share price rise.
    Sep 6 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    "Top Gear is an "entertainment " program and therefore it does not have to tell the truth - only entertain!"

    Such a joke. Misleading people via any communication channel, in any form of entertainment should be illegal, let alone a "Television show about motor vehicles, primarily cars, and is the world's most widely watched factual television programme".
    Sep 5 05:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    @BPC

    Wow, you're calling people immature but when they respond articulately, you respond back by "stfu"

    Very mature indeed.
    Sep 5 05:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    @tftf

    Trust me, I read his whole analysis, just like I read the Bofa one, MS one, Goldman one (shortest and funniest of them), John Petersen's all articles, Logical Thought, Paulo, Odysseus, you name it.

    I enjoy reading them and will keep reading but if they are all beating the same dead horse, none will affect my investment.

    Let me know what points you think Damodaran "nailed it" and we can discuss further.

    Regarding Cramer, who cares what he says? He suggested selling Tsla last summer, posted the link twice on below Cramer comments.
    Sep 5 05:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    @BPC

    "Your satirical treatment of his opinion indicates your immaturity"

    My satirical treatment only indicates that there are many theories, analyses, articles, etc. by famous professors, doesn't mean they are right.

    "Guess that's to be expected from a Saluki"

    (For those unaware, "Saluki" is the mascot of my college, Southern Illinois University where I studied an unrelated subject)

    Now, using my college mascot as an indication of my investment knowledge is indeed very mature.

    On another note, my two close friends, one NYU MBA grad, the other Harvard MBA, thought I was a lunatic for investing in Tsla in 2012, debating with ratios, charts, etc. NYU one finally gave in and became a happy Tsla shareholder in May, the other still thinks he missed the boat and never made the move.
    Sep 5 05:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    @Occam

    Have you read his claims?

    He's basically saying Elon left Tesla and founding a new company with government money.

    What am I supposed to do? Respond to anybody with their wild dreams and theories? Please go ahead if you're really interested.
    Sep 5 04:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    If you want to call it that way, majority of the funds in the world, investment accounts, 401Ks, etc. haven't made any money in the last couple of years since they haven't cashed their gains.

    Man, this was all just a dream, I'll go delete my account now.
    Sep 5 04:08 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    @tomfrompv

    "We're not talking about S owners. We're talking about NEW customers who are presented with the choice of an old Model S or the new Gen 3."

    So a potential BMW customer in the year 2017 will chose a brand new 3.20i over a 3 year old M5.

    Genius! Followed!!

    Regarding shares outstanding, this is the same model, unchanged since spring (mentioned in the article), you're welcome to plug in your own shares outstanding, P/E, etc. 118/121= 3% difference so far.

    We all know what matters is revenues, margins, profit, etc. Who knows how crazy market will price Tsla and how many shares they will dilute, again, please plug in your numbers at the bottom.
    Sep 5 04:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    @tomfrompv

    If you think BMW 3.20i, Audi A4, etc. are crappy cars, then yes, Gen3 will also be in the "Crappy Segment" vs Model S, BMW M5, Audi S7 in the "Not Crappy Segment".

    Why is it so hard to see multiple product lines for multiple customer levels? Why does Toyota own Lexus or VW own Porsche? Aren't you missing the point here?
    Sep 5 03:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    Generous price target compared to BOFA's $39 (and many short hedge funds' $0 to $60)

    Here's a more famous NYU professor's (Nouriel Roubini) predictions on global economy back in late 2011, he was all over the news since he correctly predicted the 2007 crisis. He claimed "another financial meltdown worse than in 2008" is coming.

    http://bit.ly/15yYPrw

    I'm selling the farm and heading to my bunker!
    Sep 5 03:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    I already did, here pasting again in case there's an error;

    @Coolblue

    Yes, this is a current problem that Tesla, Panasonic, Samsung (and possibly BYD) are working on.


    http://bit.ly/12HzrSq

    - Panasonic went from a loss in its lithium-ion department, added new lines to its current production and opening a new factory to keep up with demand.

    - Samsung and Tesla are currently negotiating.

    - BYD is rumored to be in the talks.

    Musk basically said "If OEMs do not invest to build enough batteries, we will build it ourselves"
    Sep 5 03:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    Thanks Newbs7,

    1. Can you please provide me a link, etc. to Elon's 20% R&D, 40% SGA growth rates? Shame on me if I missed this, attended every single earnings call, listened to many interviews, etc.

    2. Yes, this was a point missed on my side since I used the same exact model spring (I did mention in the article it's the same)

    Feel free to plug in your own shares outstanding and P/E numbers.

    3. I disagree, global demand for S, X and Gen3 may even be higher than I expected.

    - I don't see a viable competitor product until 2017 based on their prototype to production times + recent surge in global sales will keep them in denial for even longer.

    4. I disagree, Tesla just completed its first year of building its first true car, still an infant company from a production perspective, margins will keep improving for years to come + economies of scale will help significantly. Just look at their gross margin improvement in 3 quarters (excluding ZEVs), -5% in Q4, 7% in Q1, 12.5% in Q2 and they are only producing 5K cars.

    So we agree on "Tesla will be a huge disrupter of the motoring industry and very profitable" just not on the time it will take and the margins mainly.

    Fair enough, you think it's going to be more of a linear adoption curve while I think it will be exponential. I guess only time will tell.
    Sep 5 03:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    Good points Darren, however, a car's value retention and product line differences won't be similar to computers, electronics, semi-conductors, etc.

    Especially with more and more people realizing the true benefits of electricity vs gas savings, close to 0 maintenance (excluding growing pain kinks but then the service program is excellent), convenience of charging overnight, 0 tailpipe emissions, etc.
    Sep 5 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    @SidSilver

    I agree it's a contingent liability, this is probably the best wording for it.
    But I don't agree it should be only in "footnotes", it should be mentioned clearly in multiple points of 8K, 10Q, earnings call, etc.

    But I also don't agree with calling this as "cost", "debt", etc. as if 100% of people are going to return the cars.

    @ Tippy

    "Its like the guy who padded his resume. Did it really matter that he didn't get that computer science degree from that college? Whats the big deal?"

    Padding your resume is when you make up / add non-existent qualities.

    Tesla clearly explains in its resume why GAAP and Non-GAAP numbers differ, how they have a liability for this amount but they believe / guarantee it, etc.

    This is not making up or adding things to your resume, more like explaining why you took 6 months between two jobs or graduated in 4.5 years, etc.
    Sep 5 02:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Original Pricing Model And Non-GAAP Numbers' Significance [View article]
    "I think his credibility was questionable based on the prediction that Tesla becomes the second or third biggest car company on the planet, in five years. It's absurd."

    Sure, if you think the same market pricing Tsla @ $170 (when it's only delivering 20K cars/year), LNKD @ $250, AMZN @300 will not price Tsla @ $1000+ when it delivers 600K cars/year.
    Sep 5 02:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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