After visiting PC World, I can see why consumers think Microsoft (MSFT) should trade like HP (HPQ) and Dell. The fad or trendy gadgets are now smartphones and tablets, as hardly anyone walked by the PC and laptop stalls. What you buy someone as a gift nowadays is a tablet or a smartphone. Laptops are no longer wanted by many people, other than to replace a broken one.

As a result of this observation, we went back to check some figures on our investment in Microsoft and here we share some of that analysis: the potential upside and downside using a simplified dividend growth model. The upside is Windows 8 tablet demand, smartphones, Bing and Xbox, and the downside is Linux in servers along with diminishing PC demand. The question we asked was how much is an investment in Microsoft worth today given the recent growth and potential growth?

A recent Forrester research report on tablets caught our interest, as it pertains to show how the tablet market could explode for Microsoft (MSFT). The actual article remains limited to paid subscribers. The summary is in the public domain; the data in the report is detailed and large enough to produce a good revenue model. To my surprise, it was not the mobile phone market, but rather, it was demand for Window's tablets that appears to be the biggest market for Microsoft. We decided to check our portfolio, and update clients on how they can invest to benefit from this trend. In this article, we look into the possible revenue implications of the Forrester research. This provides a follow-up to the previous article we wrote dealing with the mobile OS market and Google (GOOG) in particular.

The Forrester research indicates 34% of all corporate workers worldwide want

This article is primarily written to answer lingering questions raised by the investing public (see 1, 2) about the sustainability of Nvidia's (NVDA) share gains. As of last year, Nvidia has had some share gains in the discrete graphics add-on market for PCs, in particular for gaming. We do not think these gains are sustainable because there has been no fundamental reasons for these gains. Therefore, historical precedence suggests recent Nvidia market share gains are likely to be reversed. There are three major factors that favor this trend reversal for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) :

1- Upcoming consoles (PS4, Xbox720) utilizing the latest AMD Radeon Graphics Core Next Architecture (GCN). As games are made for the new devices they will migrate to the PC optimized for AMD's GCN.

2- AMD's increased activity in the server HPC accelerator segment.

3- AMD's Gaming Evolved

After CES 2013, the reflective article by Ashraf Eassa on why Nvidia (NVDA) share price is not performing, took my attention. I thought I would share some of my views on the technical pattern and why we monitor Nvidia but have yet to commit to a position. Here, I will discuss some fundamental reasons and technical reasons behind the moves and why I have thus far avoided Nvidia. I am sharing this, as it may prove useful to other private investors looking at Nvidia.

The technical pattern

In that article, Ashraf was correct in identifying a rising channel in Nvidia's (NVDA) share price since late November. However, this channel is not very secure, since it is the second time that the channel borders are being tested on one side. This indicates a potential breakout pattern to the lows, thus from a risk/reward ratio (10% upside, 8% downside) it does

I am no stranger to being wrong, but I, like many other Nokia (NOK) investors was surprised in a Q4 update yesterday nearly 2 weeks ahead of schedule. It is not everyday that companies react to strong (up to 10%) declines in their share price by pre-releasing results; this made Nokia gain almost 20% yesterday. The news was both good and bad as it proves we were right in best guesstimating Lumia 920 sales at 2.5m units or less. The question is why Nokia cared so much about its short term share price momentum? Here we will not consider illegal motives like insider trading. Our analysis will be based on 'clean' motives.

In other words, we argue that Nokia might have other motives to care about its short term share price, probably because it either needs to borrow money and the terms of the lending usually is highly impacted

In this article we intend to point out the reasons why Nokia (NOK) -- and in particular the devices division -- and its highest margin smartphone will not be as profitable as some hope in early 2013. In effect, we will argue how the earnings call could be different, and why it will still be negative. After the initial euphoria, we see clear, longer-term usability issues that have currently been unaddressed.

Can these drawbacks be overlooked? Possibly. What does it take for consumers to overlook bugs and failings? A benchmark product.

With these questions in mind, let us consider Nokia Lumia 920 again.

Drawbacks Vs. Critical Shortcomings

Nokia has been in mobiles for over 25 years, and Apple had no experience. So how did Apple (AAPL) take over Nokia in smartphones? Innovation alone? Was the iPhone bug free? That is where we as investors must distinguish between bugs that are

In this article, we primarily aim to analyze the impact of recent touch-enabled ARM versions of Windows 8 (known as Windows RT) on Microsoft (MSFT). The Surface RT, as the first implementation, is by far the most innovative tablet of 2012. We will explain why we think sales numbers will matter eventually, but not for the reasons of direct profits. In particular, we will consider Google (GOOG) and, to a lesser extent, Apple (AAPL) as competitors while ignoring the potential impact on Intel (INTC), since we covered that for the most part previously. With the Surface on version one, Microsoft is unlikely to unseat the competition. Nonetheless, at a future point, the potential for taking share from the iPad is definitely there.

Here we will concentrate on Microsoft's product positioning and what it can mean long term, an area that others have not fully explored. We say this as

Following a recent Seeking Alpha article, which recommended shorting AMD (AMD) due to a not-so-rosy prediction from IDC, we noticed something interesting. In this article, we will approach AMD mostly from the technical short covering perspective. For analysis of products and market share, please refer to previous articles. As of last week, short interest in AMD has dropped significantly to around 15% of outstanding shares or 21% of floating shares. Therefore, as you can see below, short interest in AMD is back to August 2012 levels according to Nasdaq.

Click to enlarge images.

Source: Nasdaq.com.

Furthermore, the percentage of stock held by insiders is again at a high of 15.37% (as per Yahoo Finance). This implies a limited trading range for the short term and a potential breakout, in either direction, in early 2013 if the short interest continues to drop.

AMD Vs. Intel Return Since

Contrary to custom, let us start this article with three questions:

• If Android phones outsell iPhones and Windows Phones, why do developers still prefer to write for Apple first? (maybe we should ask Seeking Alpha)
• Why does Android's higher unit sales provide no financial benefit to Google investors (as of yet)?
• Why did Google leave out international language support for Android regional builds? Why did Google try to fix internationalization half-heartedly in Android 4.1?

These questions are important if you are an investor in online smartphone-related businesses, whether in app developers or content providers like Facebook (FB), or Google (GOOG) itself. In the rest of this article, and possibly a future follow up, we will attempt to give our view of the answers, drawn from third-party research and our own proprietary and non-public models. Google's Android is the most popular smartphone mobile OS, but many are unaware of its

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been battered of late, with some believing it will go bankrupt in due coarse. Plenty of older articles on Seeking Alpha were bullish but many have stopped being bulls given the dire situation of the PC market. However, we believe there is a resurgence of PC sales bubbling from under the ashes. This resurgence will bring back a market where AMD, like Intel (INTC) and Nvidia (NVDA), get more than three fourths of their revenue. This resurgence of PCs will be tablet lead. Wait, did we say the tablet? Isn't that what will finally kill the laptop? Didn't you already see the commemoration funeral in Barron's months back? No we are not mad, let us introduce the Fujitsu Stylistic-Q572, which is available now.

Introducing The 4G Stylistic-Q572

Technically, the tablet is the new PC and AMD is already in one. We

This article intends to address a previously unknown fact regarding Nokia's (NOK) new high end phone. There seems to be two versions, for the Lumia 920 at least, one with LTE and one without. Nokia (NOK) has not communicated this fact properly, neither to its customers nor its shareholders. Communication is something that Elop, Nokia's CEO, promised he will improve. We found this out only by accident.

After having finally received our Lumia 920 on an Orange contract, I was able to compare with a member of the family, who had ordered the unlocked Lumia 920 phone from Expansys UK. Surprisingly, the unlocked Lumia 920 appears to not have LTE, contrary to the official specifications. That is radical, because as Nokia shareholders we were not told that the Nokia Lumia 920 is being marketed in two different versions. We tested them both, and it is true

There are two new entrants into the mass market smartphone operating system space: Blackberry 10 and Windows Phone 8. In this article, we provide evidence of why only one can succeed. The top two mobile operating systems (or OS) are currently Google's (GOOG) Android and Apple's (AAPL) iOS. The first new entrant is the recently released Windows Phone 8. It is app compatible with the older, moderately successful Windows Phone 7. Windows Phone 7.x took 3-5% of the total smartphone market share. The other new entrant is the to be released in January, Blackberry 10 (BB10) Operating System. Windows Phone 8 is already present in the top selling Nokia (NOK) smartphones. Meanwhile, Research In Motion (RIMM) has already had a major run up in it's shares, exceeding Nokia, based on BB10 hope and short covering. See the chart below. BB10 handsets are expected in

This article intends to give an opposing viewpoint on gold to the one presented by a Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst. Our bullish view is not solely dependent on Quantitative Easing (QE). We will first start with a chart based technical analysis, and follow up with fundamental bullish factors that are often overlooked.

A Technical Perspective

First, let us look at gold trading from a technical perspective. We have a classic triangle formation with emerging breakout. The classical candle stick and support at 1707 is indication for a short-term rising demand. (click to enlarge)

There are fundamental reasons that can explain this, and even higher prices than the $1730-$1750 range indicated in the chart. The recent sanctions are certainly a contributing element. Let us explain.

A Fundamental Perspective

Little notice has been drawn by gold analysts to the U.S. government's sanctions and fines on Standard Chartered (SCBFF.PK), Mitsubishi (MBFJF.PK),

In this article we attempt to interpret Apple's (AAPL) recent price movements, in terms of the market's view of average long term growth prospects. Following the success we had with the "expected dividend growth" model, for Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock, we apply a similar analysis to Apple. This provides an alternative explanation of Apple's recent share price movements. To derive a trading range, rather than using technical indicators such as Moving Average Convergence Divergence, one can also use expected growth in company revenues. As investor's expectations of growth changes, fundamental moves in the underlying shares occur. We do not intend to deal with the actual sales and product views. Here we will interpret the new $500-$540 share price.

The Gordon growth model, which we derived in an earlier article, will be reused. We do not think the model was wrong: only our original

As a follow up to the research by the DB analyst regarding Lumia sales being smoke and mirrors, and our previous article, there is now solid evidence supply is intentionally limited until after Christmas in the UK. Just a few weeks ago, Nokia (NOK) was putting a brave face and did not mention exclusivity deals. According to the New York Times,

Doug Dawson, a Nokia spokesman, declined to comment on whether the difficulty of buying the phone was related to unusually low supply. He said Nokia didn't have numbers to share about early sales. "You can be very sure that we are working hard to meet the demand," Mr. Dawson said.

Here in the UK I was having difficulty sourcing a Nokia Lumia 920 from a non 4G supplier, even from Orange-TMobile which is supposed to carry them. Finally, after chasing Nokia UK, we got confirmation

There are many reasons why Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) is a bad bet. However, we think there are also good reasons why it can be a good turnaround bet. Previously, we made some value arguments based on merger potentials in this article. Incidentally in an even older article, our simulation predicted a short term "value as low as $1.85", surprisingly close to the recent lows. Yet, all hope is not lost, AMD may still survive.

One of AMD's growth avenues is the new product lines coming to market. In particular, Temash, a low power implementation of the AMD Jaguar design, a successor to Brazos. Temash is looking set to rekindle growth starting from early 2013, possibly ahead of schedule. It is also rumored to be up for use in a future Surface product. Furthermore, by attempting to effectively re-mortgage the AMD property, the

It was fascinating to see that Nokia (NOK) had a hit product with Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows Phone 8, or so it seems with the Nokia Lumia 920. Recently a DB analyst hit a warning note regarding Lumia sales being smoke and mirrors; we investigated the situation in London to see if there is any element of truth. The worldwide sold out reports, including the one from an RBC analyst, resulted in a quicker rise in Nokia shares than we anticipated. It seems the new Nokia Lumia is a hit in both Germany, parts of Europe and USA. There are many shops without any supply. The thing is, it appears Nokia may be managing supply to create an additional aura to the product. This is something that Apple (AAPL) and Nintendo (NTDOF.PK) have done before, though it is a high risk marketing strategy

After recently reading an excellent article on Mellanox (MLNX), the infiniband solutions provider, it got us thinking about the impact on Intel (INTC). The company plans to expand in the HPC infiniband market next year. Previously we had become rather bearish on Intel, and correctly predicted its fall to the $20 range when many analysts were bullish and recommending buying in the $23-24 range. Although headwinds are strong, we had not considered growth in niche markets, including in the GPGPU space using Xeon-Phi. Most of this growth is scheduled to kick in next year. Together, these new niche markets could make up for some of the revenue loss from the shrinking PC market.

Growth in Niche Markets To Offset Sales Decline?

The purchase of Qlogic was significant in highlighting the various relatively small markets where Intel is expanding. From the specification and the capabilities of Mellanox,

We recently bought Nokia (NOK) shares for long-term hold. There are many detailed arguments about why Nokia is a good investment in other articles; what tipped our scales was Nokia's history of turning things around and the aggressive pricing of the Lumia 920. $450 off contract for the top phone on AT&T (T) is very competitive and almost half price of the top line Apple (AAPL) iPhone.

Nokia has large revenue, a worldwide known brand, is in a growing industry, and has a history of turning around its business even if it means changing industry. Nokia's history started in 1865 when a mining engineer established a groundwood pulp mill in the town of Tampere, in southwestern Finland. Today, it is a long way from its origins. Nokia had a well-known wood and paper brand long before anyone heard about mobile phones. Then when analogue and then digital phones

With the advertising blitz coming from the upcoming Windows 8 launch, we had to consider adding Microsoft (MSFT) to our portfolio. Windows 8 is touted by many as the reason Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) should look forward to this quarter. Previously, we were of the same belief. Looking at the Surface RT advert, we came to the reverse conclusion. Thus we sold our Intel and AMD position, since there are no short term catalysts. This would also explain the surprisingly dismal year end outlook given by Intel in its latest report. Microsoft may be going on a limb to decimate Intel sales with the Surface RT, which is due to be launched on the 26th of October 2012.

First of all, the rather tasteful Surface Movement advertisement actually makes Surface RT appear very desirable, unlike some of the UltraBook adverts. Though it targets youth, we see