Being Good, Until One's Not
- Berkshire Hathaway's recent annual report has some issues with it.
- Sure the performance is great, but the performance summary commentary is misleading.
- Still, if statistical mean-reversion has anything to say about market patterns, then Buffett should experience continued underperformance at the same good rate in the future.
Briefer Economic Cycles
Mar. 5, 2014 • 12 Comments
- We know from our statistical modeling that growth and risks can change per unit of time.
- But nonetheless, it is important to model them as correct stationary processes, from the current large, empirical experiences that we can model.
- We should adjust these cycle estimates to be less lengthy, or that they occur more frequently, than we generally see acknowledged while enjoying whatever benefits accrue from this economic recovery.
- Forever Elusive Alpha
- The Suit Who Didn't Know
- Market's Downward Tilt
- Market Decline Statistics For S&P 500
- Federal Reserve Impact On Asset Classes
The Tough Grind Forward
Dec. 10, 2013 • 4 Comments
- The Federal Reserve Impact Now
- Sophisticated Gambler's Ruin And Survival Chances
- Tail Concordance For Treasuries, And S&P 500
- Mondays Planning A Strike?
- Enhanced Tail Risk, In The Less Risky
- Our Autumn Of Discontent
- An Engineered Market Recovery
- Sector ETFs For Changing Labor Force Dynamics
A 20% Chance Of Rate Firming Prior To 2015
Jun. 20, 2013 • 3 Comments
- Managing Risk With Key S&P Sector ETFs
- Perspectives On Impossible Market Streaks