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Salil Mehta  

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  • Being Good, Until One's Not
    Apr. 1, 2014 SPY, BRK.A, BRK.B 38 Comments

    Summary

    • Berkshire Hathaway's recent annual report has some issues with it.
    • Sure the performance is great, but the performance summary commentary is misleading.
    • Still, if statistical mean-reversion has anything to say about market patterns, then Buffett should experience continued underperformance at the same good rate in the future.
  • Briefer Economic Cycles
    Mar. 5, 2014 12 Comments

    Summary

    • We know from our statistical modeling that growth and risks can change per unit of time.
    • But nonetheless, it is important to model them as correct stationary processes, from the current large, empirical experiences that we can model.
    • We should adjust these cycle estimates to be less lengthy, or that they occur more frequently, than we generally see acknowledged while enjoying whatever benefits accrue from this economic recovery.
  • Forever Elusive Alpha
    Feb. 12, 2014 DIA 21 Comments
  • The Suit Who Didn't Know
    Feb. 5, 2014 SPY 2 Comments
  • Market's Downward Tilt
    Jan. 13, 2014 DIA 14 Comments
  • Market Decline Statistics For S&P 500
    Jan. 8, 2014 SPY 6 Comments
  • Federal Reserve Impact On Asset Classes
    Dec. 17, 2013 TLH, SPY 9 Comments
  • The Tough Grind Forward
    Dec. 10, 2013 4 Comments
  • The Federal Reserve Impact Now
    Dec. 3, 2013 SPY Comment!
  • Sophisticated Gambler's Ruin And Survival Chances
    Nov. 19, 2013 HVPW, ACWV, VSPY 2 Comments
  • Tail Concordance For Treasuries, And S&P 500
    Nov. 12, 2013 SPY, TLT 6 Comments
  • Mondays Planning A Strike?
    Oct. 22, 2013 SPY Comment!
  • Enhanced Tail Risk, In The Less Risky
    Sep. 25, 2013 SPYG, SPYV, GOVT Comment!
  • Our Autumn Of Discontent
    Aug. 28, 2013 DIA, SPY 23 Comments
  • An Engineered Market Recovery
    Jul. 28, 2013 SPY, IVV, VOO 32 Comments
  • Sector ETFs For Changing Labor Force Dynamics
    Jul. 22, 2013 XLB, XLE, XLF 4 Comments
  • A 20% Chance Of Rate Firming Prior To 2015
    Jun. 20, 2013 3 Comments
  • Managing Risk With Key S&P Sector ETFs
    May. 23, 2013 XLB, XLE, XLF 3 Comments
  • Perspectives On Impossible Market Streaks
    May. 20, 2013 SPY, DIA 4 Comments