Seeking Alpha

Sam Ramadan

View as an RSS Feed
View Sam Ramadan's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • BlackBerry: Projecting BBM Downloads And Valuation [View article]
    Downloads doesn't translate into usage. Blackberry yet again screwed it up. BBM notifications don't work in either iOS or Android and people who downloaded the application are still not using it.
    Dec 13 05:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prem Watsa Bails Out BlackBerry [View article]
    Still trying to get the point from this article. If we wanted to read about the history of BlackBerry, we would simply look for it on Wikipedia.

    To say BlackBerry failed to deliver.. I disagree. Bb10 as a brand new system is heads and shoulders above both what iOS and Android were when they were released.

    What BBRY Failed to do is market the phones properly and the release strategy was incompetent... they should have focused on emerging markets first by releasing the q5, release q10 in the western hemisphere at the same time. Release the z30 during the Christmas period and forget about the z10.
    Sep 24 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry launches latest smartphone [View news story]
    Word is the port from android works better on 10.2. Hopefully that is true... still all ported apps don't work properly. skype is terrible on bb10. I know it's a preview, but the OS has been out for 8 months. We deserve a better skype app
    Sep 18 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry launches latest smartphone [View news story]
    People here are delusional... while bbry has the best OS out there, the marketing strategy sucks and quality apps are still missing or convoluted... as an example, an app to stream Pandora exits under the name Apollo ... I would not have figured it out unless I kept on looking.

    The phone needs to allude to youngsters to have a chance of success... unfortunately my 12 year old nephew wants Samsung S4 or iPhone
    Sep 18 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is BlackBerry Making A Comeback In The United States? Some Data Suggest It Is [View article]
    Internet usage is due to new devices being more Internet friendly and allow people to log on and use the Internet much easier than bb7 devices. I highly doubt it means anything else.

    Posted using my BlackBerry Z10
    Aug 16 05:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    Ashraf... Did you even try bb10? I bought the z10 this week and it really is a breath of fresh air. I think they are still lagging in the apps space, but I would dare to say, they need less than 100 new apps to be par with iOS and Android.
    Jul 21 10:22 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is More Attractive Than Apple [View article]
    After speaking to several people who bought the z10 and to a bunch of sales people selling the phone... There seems to be a couple of lingering themes... The gestures are not easy to get used to and so people are returning the phones for that reason, moreover some of the features of the phone are embedded deeply in the menu which makes the phone not intuitive to operate.

    The second theme is the lack of native apps and the OS being a first release and contains a bunch of flaws. I believe OS 10.1 is being released soon which will take care of the second problem. A bunch of converted android apps will not work as well as a native app.

    BBRY are getting a pass with samsung's delayed S4 release. Their new and much improved advertisements here in the US (they're using the aapl model in ads) is a huge plus and is a sign of a company that has learned from some of its mistakes.

    They also need to find a way to educate sales people on the new OS. Other than an enthusiastic Verizon sales person who knew a bit about the new OS, none of the other sales people were either enthusiastic or knowledgeable about bb10. That is a problem.
    Apr 28 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will BB10 Drive Earnings? [View article]

    While I can't and will not challenge your numbers, I do have two points to question.

    1) The S,M,Admin expense was also increased by 113MM, just over a 20% increase from last quarter. This might be a low estimate. They spent/wasted $4M on a Super Bowl Ad alone.

    Are you accounting for increased marketing costs here? Your assumption(s) is(are) unclear.

    2) The EPS estimate for Blackberry's 4q is -$0.30. Anything less than that would most likely signal BB10 launch as a disaster.

    This is not necessarily true. If you take Amazon for example, when they started rolling out their "Warehouse" model, their earnings suffered and their EPS plummeted, but their multiples went through the roof as this was seen as major growth potential. I think the same concept can apply to $BBRY. Increased marketing and production costs as well as late launch(in Q3) in the US can potentially hurt their bottom line.

    Food for thought, but overall you're thinking in the right direction.
    Mar 18 01:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Growth For Panera In 2013 [View article]

    I do appreciate your comment. However, you might be referring to France rather than Europe. Starbucks have succeeded globally and I see no reason why Panera cannot.

    Needless to say, the valuation did not incorporate them moving outside Northern America. It merely pointed out that for Panera to be able to sustain their current rate of growth, they would have to seek other markets. I don't know what the number is, but the current rate of growth would saturate the US market sooner than later.
    Mar 14 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Growth For Panera In 2013 [View article]
    Dunkin is already priced at higher multiples. They also have a much higher use of leverage, similar EV and much lower sales volume.
    Mar 12 07:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Growth For Panera In 2013 [View article]
    Thank you for the feedback jowl
    Mar 11 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour Stock Analysis: An Impressive Growth Stock With Catalysts To Go Higher [View article]

    1) The fabric technology from Under Armour is nothing new, you may be a late joiner to the game (as I was, just three months ago).
    2) While the track record of what UA has accomplished so far is impressive, Under Armour's long term success includes taking away sales from Nike in such arenas as basketball shoes. A product which is at the heart of what Nike does - in addition, it is a product with lower margins.
    3) If you like the long term growth numbers, this means you'd be an investor based on fundementals - short interest (and price volatility) shouldn't be something you need worry about if you're a long term investor.

    4) Waiting on the pullback. Our most recent price target for UA was $47-$49. With the stock market being bullish, this ticker could deviate slightly higher than our price target. For more information, please read this research report:
    Mar 5 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour's Share Price Unjustified Considering Competitive Landscape [View article]
    gkyle - thank you for the feedback and I agree with your notes. Under Armour has built a solid brand name in the apparel market and is growing based on that. Multiple issues I see with that going forward: 1) their margin on COLDGEAR is higher than the other two forms of gear they sell (which sells in the north, not the south) - this means they depend on selling this product to keep their margins up. Also, if you compare UA's margins with LULU's net margins, you can tell it much lower. 2) Nike (as well as other competitors) has comparable products out there and that will put additional pressure on UA margins 3) Comparably speaking, I was referring to UA's share price which according to comparable numbers make the market price slightly higher than what I estimate it to be 4) Their sales volume is increasing but at a decreasing rate as noted by last eight quarters (and is an embedded ongoing assumption in my model).
    I appreciate your input and what you referred to is something I should have probably explored more in my writing.
    Jan 16 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour's Share Price Unjustified Considering Competitive Landscape [View article]
    I agree that UA has a much better brand name than LULU. However, LULU has a market niche and should be able to continue to post solid growth going forward.While UA's past growth has been impressive, potential growth hinges on them taking on the heavyweights: Nike (& Adidas). The market is rich with small time players and UA faces an uphill battle to make it to the big boys league.
    Jan 15 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Or RIM? Why There Is Only Room For One More Mobile Operating System [View article]
    This article lacks coherence - as many mentioned above, the arguments do not support the conclusion. I agree there is great speculation in RIMM as is the historical case with many new good products that do not succeed in selling.

    However, there is one additional and very important aspect that the author overlooked. Your AT&Ts and Verizons do not want to be under the mercy of Apple and Google and would welcome RIMMs resurgence.

    One last note, Microsoft still continue to stutter and mis-manage a great line of products. Windows 8 has been rushed into the market. RIMM on the other hand is looking at the process more strategically and even though BB10 has been delayed, I would assume it is better, for their product line, to have an outstanding release.
    Dec 17 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment