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Sameer Advani

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  • Plug Power: Sorting Through The Noise [View article]
    @rayebob, economies of scale? really? they lose money on every unit they deliver. I don't think capacity is the issue. Any real economy of scale will require a massive investment in capex, which means more dilution or more debt.
    Apr 16 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keyw Holding Corp: Attractive Fundamentals, 11.3% Expected Industry Growth, Shares Discounted By 40% [View article]
    ouch. timely article.
    Apr 16 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power: Unprofitable Past, Poor Fundamentals, And A Best-Case DCF Value Of $2-$2.50/Share [View article]
    @ikarus, making waaaay too much sense here. wrong forum for that I guess. this forum is all about hype and hyperbole.
    Apr 16 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power: Unprofitable Past, Poor Fundamentals, And A Best-Case DCF Value Of $2-$2.50/Share [View article]
    @lakhi, who uses DCF to value companies? Really? Everyone. That's who. Any asset is only worth it's discounted expected cash flows. PLUG is no different.
    Apr 16 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power: Unprofitable Past, Poor Fundamentals, And A Best-Case DCF Value Of $2-$2.50/Share [View article]
    @FF373737, I suppose that's possible. It's more likely that they didn't see much long term benefit of having an equity stake in the company, and they took the opportunity to liquidate their position.
    Apr 4 10:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power: Unprofitable Past, Poor Fundamentals, And A Best-Case DCF Value Of $2-$2.50/Share [View article]
    Wow, the discussion on this stock go from silly to ridiculous in a hurry. If ReliOn is such a great strategic asset, why would Cummins, one of the largest energy equipment companies in the world, be willing to sell it for a measly $4 Million, and as an asset sale? Clearly it must be a great business, and there must be tremendous value in the operations as an on-going concern. Am I missing something here? Lousy money-losing company buys lousy worthless assets for over-inflated stock, increases overall value of the firm? I think not.
    Apr 4 01:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power: Unprofitable Past, Poor Fundamentals, And A Best-Case DCF Value Of $2-$2.50/Share [View article]
    Great article. The DCF is very generous. Being such a volatile stock I would estimate the discount rate higher at 13 to 15%. Anyways that wouldn't change the reality much, it's waaaaaay overvalued fundamentally. Not that it matters.....until it does. Good luck to the longs. I'm glad to take the other side of that trade all day long. I hope the price spikes higher so I can make even more money going short. Trade of the year. I'm going all in on PLUG short. I thought the DDD short was enough for the year but it came to early, so maybe now I'm just getting greedy.
    Apr 2 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Plug Power Is Now Heading Back To $8, Eventually On Its Way To $14 [View article]
    @JohnFoley, you are the most rational contributor to this thread.
    Mar 30 10:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Plug Power Is Now Heading Back To $8, Eventually On Its Way To $14 [View article]
    @rayebob, yes and japanese energy costs are much higher than the US, making hydrogen more attractive. same goes for europe. here you are competing against electricity, which is dirt cheap and getting cheaper. hence, the myopia. The DOD has studied this and cannot make it feasible without subsidies.
    Mar 30 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Plug Power Is Now Heading Back To $8, Eventually On Its Way To $14 [View article]
    @philohipis. You don't get it. $30 million in sales does not justify a billion dollar valuation. full stop. good day sir.
    Mar 30 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Plug Power Is Now Heading Back To $8, Eventually On Its Way To $14 [View article]
    @philohipis, there is nothing particularly unique about their service offering, and last I checked, service businesses are relatively low margin and require massive scale to be attractive to the investing public at large. Will PLUG be the Sysco of hydrogen? Or the IBM of hydrogen? Probably not.

    They don't make anything unique. All they have developed is a repackaging of what are essentially off the shelf fuel cell technologies, and bundled it with the servicing. $5 Million on R&D in each of 2012, and 2013? What futuristic technology could they possibly be working on with a budget of $5 million? This company has zero sustainable competitive advantage.
    Mar 28 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Plug Power Is Now Heading Back To $8, Eventually On Its Way To $14 [View article]
    Why aren't they buying from $PLUG? Ask that question first. This company had $26 Million in revenues last year. Even at 10X that it's still a drop in the ocean of fortune 500 capex.
    Mar 28 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Will Short Pandora Furiously Until The Letter 'P' Key Falls Off My Keyboard [View article]
    @ dgulick, The Netflix of Music? Give me a break. Anytime I hear "the x of y", I roll my eyes. Companies with a sustainable competitive advantage are never mimicking others, they are their own creation, their own secret sauce. P has absolutely zero sustainable competitive advantage. Ironically, it's questionable whether Netflix does either, so not a very apt comparison.
    Mar 27 12:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Plug Power Is Now Heading Back To $8, Eventually On Its Way To $14 [View article]
    U.S. investors are incredibly myopic. Don't you realize that Japanese companies have been working on fuel cells for years now, and actually deploy generating systems across Japan? Japan is already building a hydrogen highway, with massive government support. How do you suppose little PLUG will compete with Japan Inc down the road? Will Honda start buying fuel cells from PLUG? I doubt it. What is so revolutionary about their "technology"? Absolutely nothing. This is a marginal, niche business at best, and a bankrupt one at worst.
    Mar 26 09:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Plug Power Is Now Heading Back To $8, Eventually On Its Way To $14 [View article]
    Wow. This is nuts. Why anyone would be long this casino stock is beyond my imagination. The SEC will be all over this once the class action lawsuits start flying.
    Mar 26 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
245 Comments
276 Likes