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Sameer Advani  

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  • How China Fits Into The Global Puzzle [View article]
    Great article. What about the potential impact on purchases of treasuries? How will the slowdown in China and devaluation of the yuan affect the market for treasuries. Also, if China moves to nationalize much of the excess debt from bank balance sheets, will this be through a sterilized or unsterilized creation of funds via centralized debt issuance and money creation? If it's sterilized will they sell treasuries to maintain the value of the currency, and will that put downward pressure on the dollar?
    Aug 18, 2015. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Don't Think Lumber Liquidators Is Going Bust, Now Might Be The Time To Own It [View article]
    Consumer memory is fairly short and they have been able to slow the customer loss with massive discounts. However, going forward, they are losing a large amount of their operating leverage that they got from the cheap Chinese imports, so it's hard to say whether there is compelling long term value. Trading the bounce off the bottom may be a good play, but the upside may also be limited.
    Aug 6, 2015. 02:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Aware Of This If You're Investing In National Bank Of Greece [View article]
    Nice call. Regarding dilution, bail-ins, npl's, etc, it would seem that the market was way ahead in pricing this in, however, the unknown risk of a return to the drachma has temporarily been removed so the price may stabilize from here unless there is another dramatic change in the political sphere.
    Aug 6, 2015. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyberark Follows In GoPro's Footsteps [View article]
    great article, probably prescient. fuel cells and 3d printing are the right analogy.
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Combine A Bulldog With A Shih Tzu, And You Get Freshpet [View article]
    great article. pet food is $20B industry, these guys have 0.4% of the market, yet they trade at 5x the sales multiple of their competitors. no scale, no moat, no differentiation. all hype.
    Apr 11, 2015. 05:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • magicJack Is Undervalued [View article]
    There's no barrier to entry, no competitive advantage, no way to create brand loyalty. Not a good recipe for value creation.
    Apr 2, 2015. 11:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Fed Should Have Said [View article]
    I disagree that the economy is somehow on hold depending on fed action. The markets might be, but the markets are not the economy. Capital formation is less dependent on overnight rates, and way more dependent on aggregate demand. Investment will happen if economic conditions warrant, and those conditions are not determined by the Fed. The Fed only controls the shortest end of the leash.
    Mar 24, 2015. 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Will Not Raise Rates... Here's Why [View article]
    Great article. Apparently nobody is listening. The flattening yield curve should be of great concern to the fed. Without a steeper yield curve there will be limited credit creation. Those calling for the end of deleveraging may be correct in the absolute sense, that debt in nominal turns has stopped declining, but without robust credit creation there will be tepid gdp growth at best, and it will take several more years of slow credit creation and tepid nominal gdp growth before debt levels return to a historically stable level.
    Mar 12, 2015. 05:05 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth: A Cheap Stock With Bullish Long-Term Upside Catalysts [View article]
    ouch, timing is everything I guess. 44m seems somewhat trivial given the huge reserve increase last year.
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short The UUP: Dollar Index Is Giving Way On Favorable Greece, Ukraine Developments [View article]
    Bold call, I applaud your courage. There's only about two people in the world calling for a lower dollar and you're one of them. I agree with you, the recent strength may be overdone. I attribute it to the narrowing trade gap that came about as a result of increased shale production. If that tapers off significantly, which it will if prices stay low, the dollar should lose some support. In addition, if the EU gets even a little bit of it's mojo back, money will move into euro assets.
    Feb 16, 2015. 02:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    go as at the wind blows seems to be the clarion call...perfect timing to be a contrarian.
    Feb 16, 2015. 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Declining Real Household Income Calls Continued U.S. Economic Growth Into Question [View article]
    Some blame declining productivity growth, as incremental R&D generates less and less marginal benefit to productivity over time, and with globalization, much of the R&D is readily replicated in lower cost regions so that the benefits are more widespread at a faster rate than in the past. This leads to a faster convergence of living standards where "developed" economies stagnate on a relative basis, and "emerging" economies make vast leaps in productivity and growth.

    I guess the greater existential question is whether americans and europeans need or want a further rise in living standards relative to the rest of the world. When is the standard of living sufficient? We may be reaching the limits of what we can sustainably produce from the earths resources, so in some ways, it is starting to edge towards a zero sum game. Of course, futurists would say there is no limit to human ingenuity and resourcefulness. That may be true, but part of the driving force of rapid innovation in the past was necessity. Do americans and europeans have that burning necessity to make life much better than it already is?
    Jan 24, 2015. 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Price Rubber Band Will Soon Snap Back [View article]
    It's not a supply/demand imbalance, there is demand for any quantity of supply, it's the price that adjusts to clear the market. The oil market is not over supplied. We don't really know what the true marginal costs are for shale producers. As long as the price is above their true marginal cost, they will keep pumping. The petro states will also keep pumping to keep employment high. They pay local wages in local currency, but earn in dollars, hence the rapid depreciation of their currencies, but employment is paramount so they will keep pumping and suffer inflation, which is better than social unrest which is possible if they shut down production.
    Jan 16, 2015. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Surprise Of 2015 - Wage Growth [View article]
    Not so sure. As long as there is global excess human and physical capacity there will be a lid on wage growth.
    Jan 15, 2015. 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vimicro Investors Hold A Worthless Bag [View article]
    you guys really did your homework. nice job.
    Dec 8, 2014. 09:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment