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Sameer Advani  

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  • Unconventional Monetary Policies Likely Mean Rate Hikes Nearly Complete...Not Just Starting [View article]
    Interesting. What are your views on the sustainability of the dollar rally if US interest rates more or less converge with European and Japanese rates over the rest of this cycle?
    Nov 16, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Warning: The Next Wave [View article]
    Why "Poom" and not "Boom"?
    Oct 1, 2015. 12:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Yield Divergence [View article]
    The basic premise being that if an asset is "risk free" then your only compensation should be to keep up with inflation, correct? However, there are two components of risk, inflation and expected depreciation. Is the additional real yield not compensation for that expected depreciation? Or does that not factor in for domestic buyers of domestic risk free debt?

    If that is the case then risk free yields have much farther to fall, and the Fed has historically been overcompensating rentiers on their savings instruments. This would also argue that the Fed did not create instability throughout the greenspan and bernanke years as nominal yields were higher than they should have been. Is that no also a source of dislocation, or mis-allocation of capital?
    Sep 28, 2015. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt As Far As The Eye Can See [View article]
    Hence the idea of QE infinity, only way to make debt cheaper is to inflate it away or write it off, the latter being unpalatable.
    Sep 23, 2015. 05:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet QT - QE's Evil Twin [View article]
    If you think of the sectoral balance for a minute, if China and other stop accumulating debt, it would indicate that the current account is lower in real terms than previously, which means there are more domestic dollars searching for a home versus "recycled" funds. The net effect would be a wash, as those dollar would find there way into treasuries as well. Foreign holders of US debt do not set the long end of the curve, that is set by market expectations of inflation as well as expected depreciation of the currency. Right now, ten year inflation expectations are around 1.6%. I suppose the market could demand a higher rate based on expected depreciation, but most treasury debt is still domestically held so foreign buyers are price takers, not price setters. Net result? China, Japan and other foreign entities have no impact on US bond yields.
    Sep 4, 2015. 02:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Fits Into The Global Puzzle [View article]
    Great article. What about the potential impact on purchases of treasuries? How will the slowdown in China and devaluation of the yuan affect the market for treasuries. Also, if China moves to nationalize much of the excess debt from bank balance sheets, will this be through a sterilized or unsterilized creation of funds via centralized debt issuance and money creation? If it's sterilized will they sell treasuries to maintain the value of the currency, and will that put downward pressure on the dollar?
    Aug 18, 2015. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Don't Think Lumber Liquidators Is Going Bust, Now Might Be The Time To Own It [View article]
    Consumer memory is fairly short and they have been able to slow the customer loss with massive discounts. However, going forward, they are losing a large amount of their operating leverage that they got from the cheap Chinese imports, so it's hard to say whether there is compelling long term value. Trading the bounce off the bottom may be a good play, but the upside may also be limited.
    Aug 6, 2015. 02:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Aware Of This If You're Investing In National Bank Of Greece [View article]
    Nice call. Regarding dilution, bail-ins, npl's, etc, it would seem that the market was way ahead in pricing this in, however, the unknown risk of a return to the drachma has temporarily been removed so the price may stabilize from here unless there is another dramatic change in the political sphere.
    Aug 6, 2015. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyberark Follows In GoPro's Footsteps [View article]
    great article, probably prescient. fuel cells and 3d printing are the right analogy.
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Combine A Bulldog With A Shih Tzu, And You Get Freshpet [View article]
    great article. pet food is $20B industry, these guys have 0.4% of the market, yet they trade at 5x the sales multiple of their competitors. no scale, no moat, no differentiation. all hype.
    Apr 11, 2015. 05:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • magicJack Is Undervalued [View article]
    There's no barrier to entry, no competitive advantage, no way to create brand loyalty. Not a good recipe for value creation.
    Apr 2, 2015. 11:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Fed Should Have Said [View article]
    I disagree that the economy is somehow on hold depending on fed action. The markets might be, but the markets are not the economy. Capital formation is less dependent on overnight rates, and way more dependent on aggregate demand. Investment will happen if economic conditions warrant, and those conditions are not determined by the Fed. The Fed only controls the shortest end of the leash.
    Mar 24, 2015. 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Will Not Raise Rates... Here's Why [View article]
    Great article. Apparently nobody is listening. The flattening yield curve should be of great concern to the fed. Without a steeper yield curve there will be limited credit creation. Those calling for the end of deleveraging may be correct in the absolute sense, that debt in nominal turns has stopped declining, but without robust credit creation there will be tepid gdp growth at best, and it will take several more years of slow credit creation and tepid nominal gdp growth before debt levels return to a historically stable level.
    Mar 12, 2015. 05:05 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth: A Cheap Stock With Bullish Long-Term Upside Catalysts [View article]
    ouch, timing is everything I guess. 44m seems somewhat trivial given the huge reserve increase last year.
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short The UUP: Dollar Index Is Giving Way On Favorable Greece, Ukraine Developments [View article]
    Bold call, I applaud your courage. There's only about two people in the world calling for a lower dollar and you're one of them. I agree with you, the recent strength may be overdone. I attribute it to the narrowing trade gap that came about as a result of increased shale production. If that tapers off significantly, which it will if prices stay low, the dollar should lose some support. In addition, if the EU gets even a little bit of it's mojo back, money will move into euro assets.
    Feb 16, 2015. 02:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment