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Sameer Advani's  Instablog

Sameer Advani
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Engineer, Entrepreneur and Investor.
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  • Real Historical Copper Price
    Much is made of today’s record copper prices, without any analysis of history.  The chart below shows the average annual copper price going back to 1900, adjusted to 2010 dollars.  The annual average peaked in 1907 at $10,350 per ton.  The long run 110 year average is $5,150 per ton.  Mean reversion is much talked about in equity markets.  I don’t see why copper prices will not revert to their long run average.  From 1900 to today, global copper production has kept up with demand, and price has always responded accordingly.  The bullish case for copper all rests on China’s increasing demand.  If that demand fails to increase, I don’t see why copper prices would remain at this level….they never have in the past 110 years.

    Real Historical Average Annual Cu Price
    May 30 8:37 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • A Silver Lining? Probably Not.

    In the rush of time, we forget the past with great abandon.  In March of 1999, the Nasdaq composite was at 2300,  One year later, the Nasdaq peaked at just over 5000, then proceeded to decline by over 50% over the twelve months.  By March of 2001, the Nasdaq closed at below 2000.

    It took one year for the Nasdaq to complete it's parabolic ascent, and one year to fall spectacularly.  The chart below compares the daily closing prices of the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) and the Nasdaq composite index over the time frame of one year prior to and after their respective peaks.  This, of course, assumes that silver did actually peak on April 28th at just under $50 per ounce.

    Only time will tell if there is a silver lining to this story

    SLV and Nasdaq
    May 30 2:02 AM | Link | 2 Comments
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