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Sami J. Karam  

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  • Keurig Green Mountain Looking To Bottom [View article]
    If Coke wants the whole thing, they were wise to wait for a retreat in the stock. Question is can they pick it up at an even lower level? Fundamentally, GMCR is not particularly cheap, especially if you expect some margin pressure. It is still selling coffee in K-Cups at 2 to 3x the price of bagged coffee. That is probably not sustainable as commoditization increases. I covered some of these points in November when the stock was around $140. see link: http://tinyurl.com/qxg...
    Jun 30, 2015. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Approaching Peak Facebook? [View article]
    Last July, I compared Facebook's growth and valuation to Google's when Google was at a similar stage years ago. You can find the article in this link: http://bit.ly/1I1KSdK
    Jun 1, 2015. 12:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Approaching Peak Facebook? [View article]
    Last July, I compared Facebook growth and valuation to Google's when Google was at a similar stage years ago. You can find the article in this link:
    http://bit.ly/1I1KSdK
    Jun 1, 2015. 12:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Keurig Green Mountain's Problems More Than A Misunderstanding? [View article]
    "GMCR being closer to market saturation for the brewers."

    There have been articles about the environmental impact of all those discarded K-Cups. This may also play a role in saturation or even (gasp) decline in adoption.
    May 7, 2015. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Bull Comes Back [View article]
    No use getting into discussion of other names on this thread. But if you look in the energy space, there are many leveraged companies where market cap is < 20% of EV. Not all will go bankrupt. From these depressed levels, a 20% rise in the EV means a doubling of the stock price.
    Apr 28, 2015. 05:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Bull Comes Back [View article]
    The most important part of my comment was not the 29% but that any significant gain, be it 25% or 50%, requires a benign macro environment and perfect execution by the company. In theory, one should prefer an investment that promises 20% without perfection over an investment that promises 40% with perfection. Because perfection is far less probable, the expected return of the first is higher than that of the second.
    Apr 27, 2015. 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Bull Comes Back [View article]
    You have to think what is realistic upside for the stock before an internal or external problem intervenes. Market cap is now $775 billion. So even if you buy into the idea that it will hit a trillion, that is "only" 29% upside and that is assuming no market correction and essentially flawless execution on the watch etc. Not impossible but there are easier ways to make money with other names that don't require perfection.
    Apr 27, 2015. 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Shareholders Under Pressure [View article]
    SODA margins are higher only at gross profit level. But for EBITDA and lower, GMCR margins are significantly higher.
    Mar 27, 2015. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Shareholders Under Pressure [View article]
    Worth mentioning that SODA trades at 0.75x sales and GMCR at 4x sales. That can be explained in part by GMCR's greater size and higher margins. Still, there is a lot of optimism or takeout speculation built into that multiple.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators Is Evil [View article]
    It may take a long time to settle this case in court. LL can plead ignorance and claim that it was the Chinese supplier's fault etc. The other point is that IF there is a significant future liability here, it may make more sense for the powers that be to keep the company alive and to penalize its future cash flows, instead of driving it out of business and killing those cash flows. I suppose there is a possible bankruptcy scenario that would please short sellers AND compensate the alleged harmed customers, one in which the equity is wiped out but the company keeps operating and meeting its liabilities.
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Altria Keeps Rising, So Does The Temptation To Sell [View article]
    You almost have to look at it as a highly rated bond. At current treasury rates, it could in theory keep on going, despite the relative overvaluation.
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Coach Finally Starting To Turn It Around? [View article]
    The strategy is still confusing. They are too dependent on factory outlets and are closing few stores there. I wrote on it last year (link below). Unless I missed something (entirely possible), some contradictions are still unresolved.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Perhaps a branding solution is to give up the damaged Coach brand to the lower end (factory outlets) and create a new brand for the premium products and stores.
    Mar 2, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Agricultural Commodity ETFs: A Conversation With Sal Gilbertie [View article]
    The question being addressed here was: does it make sense for an investor who is already interested in commodities such as precious metals or energy to place 1 or 2% in agricultural commodities? I wasn't making a case for short-term trading but for long-term asset allocation with, as it happens, what may be a favorable entry point today.

    Regarding supply demand, the demographics make the demand somewhat predictable. But, as noted in the piece, supply is dependent on big investments which will not necessarily be deployed proactively.

    Appreciate your other points.
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Agricultural Commodity ETFs: A Conversation With Sal Gilbertie [View article]
    Fair point on the fees. But there is a risk here of seeing the trees while missing the forest. Note that in the podcast (from 36:35 to 38:45, link below), there is discussion of a hedged position of short gold and long corn or one of the other ags. If you buy into the mean-reversion idea, the ratios of the ags relative to gold are now low enough to mitigate the fees. You could make a similar argument for a long only book which is holding gold and is looking to rebalance away some of the gold into corn (discussed in podcast from 38:40 to 39:10).
    Podcast link ---> http://bit.ly/1FUkQHG
    Feb 24, 2015. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig's Q1 - Going A Little Stale? [View article]
    >> I cannot see a scenario where KO does not increase a stake long term. <<

    Why not? They could have afforded to buy the whole thing at $80. Now they can pay 4x sales or they can wait for a lower price. Or they can do nothing, or even sell.
    Feb 2, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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