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Samuel Biller

 
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  • TiVo CFO Naveen Chopra At MKM Partners Investor Day Conference [View article]
    A couple of thousand rich people to buy a ridiculously high-end DVR? I wouldn't be surprised.

    Regarding the TiVo OTAs $15/mo subscription fee, there has been a lot of buzz and I think the $15 price might generate some healthy sales. Is it for me? Absolutely not. Is it for the generation of consumer who is used to buying a subsidized phone for $49 and signing a two-year contract, perhaps. Once the TiVo OTA's inventory builds at Best Buy, I expect TiVo will sell somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 of this SKU during Q4. I also expect Amazon to sell it.

    A comparison of the TiVo OTA to the Aereo is interesting. Both boxes received linear broadcast programming. The TiVo OTA delivers a higher quality, the highest in-fact, HD signal to one or multiple TVs in the home vs the Aereo which delivered a compressed and encoded broadcast TV signal to one TV. Is that worth $7.00 per month more? Perhaps when you couple that with TiVo's content aggregation services the comparison is even better. The interesting thing about the Roamio OTA is the ROI period for TiVo. A Roamio OTA sub will probably become cash flow positive for the company in 12 to 15 months.

    I agree that comparing Netflix to TiVo is incorrect. I also agree that large MSOs can do their own content aggregation with the help of some partners like TiVo Digitalsmiths. Comcast's X1 initiative contradicts your assertion that MSOs aren't in a rush to adopt a TVE strategy.

    You miss the key fact that Premiere and Roamio are boxes designed for retail and cable operators. That is why the TiVo strategy is working. TiVo has a common modern code base across all operators. In fact, the quality and success of Roamio is one of the key reasons that adoption by the majority of mid-tier MSOs in the U.S. is accelerating. TiVo's retail strategy is growth at a reasonable price. They won't bet the farm on retail because the retail market doesn't warrant the risk. There is the friction of CableCARD and generic MSO offerings to overcome. Once CableCARD is replaced, they will need to revisit whether further investment is required.
    Sep 25 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rovi Corporation: Despite A Big Run, The Stock Is Still Undervalued [View article]
    Hi Matthew,

    Excellent article. One quick question regarding Rovi's cash flow and EPS. A quick look at the 10Q for Mar 31, 2013 shows a Net Loss of ($25.7mn). Will these losses continue or are they expecting to turn GAAP EPS profitable in the near future?

    As you point out in your EV/EBITDA metric the stock does not appear to be cheap at these levels.

    Thanks,
    Sam
    Jul 5 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo: Near-Term Litigation Catalyst With Profitability On The Horizon [View article]
    Thanks Thomas. Check out this perspective. I think its brilliant... makes a lot of sense.

    http://bit.ly/11nUC6Z
    Jun 8 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo: Near-Term Litigation Catalyst With Profitability On The Horizon [View article]
    TiVo has a lot of options with over $1 billion in cash on the books. We know they will get more aggressive with the buyback but what are they planning on doing with the other $800 million? I suspect that the likelihood of an M&A has increased significantly at this point. I'm evaluating a number of scenarios right now. The company is operationally more healthy today and adding at these levels is a smart play for an investor.
    Jun 8 07:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo: Near-Term Litigation Catalyst With Profitability On The Horizon [View article]
    Thanks ximoosea1.

    I really like the risk/reward at this point but downside risk exists if this thing goes to trial next week. I see any sell-off as a buying opportunity going into a likely jury verdict around June 19th.
    Jun 6 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo: Bad Business, Good Stock [View article]
    The near term heat is almost exclusively around the near-term litigation with Googorola. Acquisition becomes more likely once the current litigation and the Cisco litigation is resolved next year.

    JHMO,
    Sam
    Jun 3 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo: Bad Business, Good Stock [View article]
    Don,

    A quick Google search for MSO quickly reveals the answer -- first entry in fact. I don't think anyone should invest in TiVo without a basic understanding of the cable business where MSO is one of the most basic terms.

    V/r,
    Sam

    PS) Multiple-System Operator (i.e., a cable operator).
    Jun 3 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Charter: Chapter 11 Is Coming [View article]
    Excellent comment. I think there will be more consolidation in the industry (e.g., LG acquiring Virgin Media). I wouldn't be surprised to see TWC take-out CHTR nullifying the short thesis.
    Feb 22 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Charter: Chapter 11 Is Coming [View article]
    Charter releases Q4 earnings tomorrow (2/22) morning before the market opens. I will reserve judgement until I see their latest report and listen to the conference call. Interesting article.
    Feb 21 10:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo Q3 Update: Patent Monetization Crosses 1 Billion; Core Business Far Exceeds Consensus [View article]
    Citadel raises its stake (13G) in TiVo (TIVO -0.2%) to 5.2%, adding over 5M shares to its previously ... http://t.co/BkOFh7Sb $TIVO
    Jan 18 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo Q3 Update: Patent Monetization Crosses 1 Billion; Core Business Far Exceeds Consensus [View article]
    Hi Vince,
    Thanks for the comments on the piece.

    <<<I'm interested as to how/why you're forecasting 89% adoption at Virgin>>>

    I happened to notice the 89% adoption rate at Virgin and think that may be a bit aggressive. I've lowered it a bit in the out years going forward but it doesn't materially impact my bull case. As you probably know, Virgin recently launched their TV Anywhere initiative which allows a Virgin subscriber to receive some level of service on many different end-points including a PC/Mac and iOS device. They also enabled Multi-Room Streaming (MRS) for the first time on TiVo. At this point its unclear how Virgin will report multi-device households (HHs) to TiVo. This will probably contribute either a higher ARPU or a higher number of Virgin subscribers on the TiVo books. I am projecting that Virgin's penetration rate which is now in the 200,000+ per quarter to the 150,000+ per quarter next year followed by 100,000+ per quarter in FY15 and FY16.

    <<<My argument has been that TiVo's core business needs its subscriber base to grow by 3x or 4x to even reach profitability>>>

    I would contend that the number is much smaller than 3x. TiVo has already guided to being cash flow positive next year including litigation expense. I expect that TiVo will be GAAP EPS positive sooner than most analysts are forecasting (current FY15). This is due to a clear issue I've discovered with the way the analysts are projecting ARPU going forward once Virgin Media revenue starts flowing to the Service Revenue line sometime next year. I will highlight this discrepancy in a future piece on Seeking Alpha.

    <<<To me, if you take out the $2/share value on the core business (I'd put the PW value around $0, personally) and also account for the cash burn over the next 24-48 months, you're getting to a fair value awfully close to the current price around $12.>>>

    I agree with your scenario that if the core business is worth zero present value than we are looking strictly at a litigation play. My contention is the core business is worth $2.00 today with significant upside based on TiVo's current deals on the books with potential upside on new deals and an improvement with their Charter deal and/or retail trends. I still see an asymetric risk/reward with downside in the 10% range at current prices (~$12) and upside of at least 50% based on the likely outcome of the Moto litigation and continued improvements in the core business.

    I'm looking forward to your next piece on the company. Thanks again for the comment.
    Dec 10 04:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google (GOOG) has reportedly set today as the provisional deadline for the last round of bidding for Motorola's set-top box business, which could bring in offers of $1.5-2.5B. Potential suitors include cable-equipment maker Arris (ARRS), Britain's Pace, France's Technicolor and P-E firms. Despite its TV software, Google is selling the unit due to costs and because cable companies might be wary of doing business with Google. [View news story]
    It's unclear the impact this would have on the billion+ patent infringement suit that TiVo has against Moto and TWC. I'm guessing Google would indemnify and finance any acquirer.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 7 07:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo Q3 Update: Patent Monetization Crosses 1 Billion; Core Business Far Exceeds Consensus [View article]
    Thanks for accolades.
    Dec 5 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo Is Worth A Replay At $10 A Share [View article]
    "Wow Samuel, you must use the same research sites that the author here does."

    LOL. Have you read my articles on TiVo?

    " Tivo isn't a cable operator."

    Their not but they are attached at the hip with quite a few cable operators in the US and abroad. I haven't updated the percentage recently but a large percentage of US cable operators now have either a license or advanced television deal with TiVo. That number will likely grow once TWC capitulates.

    "But what happens when Netflix or Amazon win the rights to the Superbowl, and stream the game live from the complimentary devices that run their programs?"

    Its interesting that you bring up a sporting event like the Superbowl. Live sports is one of the key reasons that its really difficult for a sports fan to "cut-the-cord". I don't see a shift to a streaming-only situation for sports any time in the next 3-5 years. BTW, I am a subscriber to Netflix and Hulu+ so I'm fully aware of their capabilities.
    Oct 19 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo Is Worth A Replay At $10 A Share [View article]
    Sure... and at the same time the cable operators keep making piles of cash and some even are adding subscribers. Verizon FiOS announced Q3 2012 earnings today adding 119,000 Video Subscribers. Are cord cutters and cord nevers a reality? Sure. Are they disrupting the cable operators business models? Nope.
    Oct 18 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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46 Comments
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