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Sandip Raichura's  Instablog

Sandip Raichura
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Promoter and Director at Castanea Wealth Management , Mumbai (India), a recently launched outfit to promote safe investing using sophisticated / alternative strategies among HNIs. Aspire to grow Castanea Wealth into an organisation of wide repute. Earlier, Headed various Wealth Management... More
  • India Update December 2011
    The situation in India broadly remains the same as the previous update - with politics back to the fore. Indian markets have however recovered from their lows following optimism on a credible resolution to the Euro crisis and are currently ruling slightly above our forecast levels for end December 11 (S&P CNX NIFTY at 5039 versus our forecast of 5000).

    While it remains virtually impossible to predict the actual levels especially as we enter a critical week as far as the Eurozone crisis is concerned, we do believe that the world's economics has fundamentally worsened and that a sharp rebound in the real economy is some months away - and any sharp rallies therefore in Indian stocks should be used as opportunities to exit stocks.

    We have now however changed our stance on Indian bonds to positive as we believe the upsides on Indian long term bonds is far higher than potential downsides.

    Our favorite picks for 2012 remain the same as the earlier post (Stocks you wont find at Macy's).

    Dec 06 12:56 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Stocks You Wont Find at Macy's!

    A large range of stocks have been battered over the past couple of weeks as Indian markets took a turn for the worse. However, some names stand out as a long term investor's dream bets and if one isnt worried about markets too much, some stocks are begging for attention at current prices.

    A Top 5 on the "India 2012" shopping list should definitely have :

    1) INFY - Battered as it outperformed earlier, Weak on news of a regulatory issue in the US and a clarification on revenue guidance leading to weakness which we consider overblown vis-avis the IT index

    2) HDFC Bank - Hung on as long as it could but finally gave way last week, High margins coming under threat from increasing competition seen as rationale - Again, in our mind, a gem of a stock for the long term investor at current levels

    3) ICICI Bank - Cyclical weakness, on par results and lowering of weightage on the MSCI led to extra normal weakness - our analysis points to it being available at a very deep discount to its competitors at current levels.

    4) L&T - Bellwether stock for the Indian capital goods industry and a key beneficiary of future investment recoveries - Sharp correction much higher than markets as muted order flow, general weakness in capital goods etc has led to extremely attractive prices. If the India story exists, L&T is a definitive pick

    5) M&M - Again, an extremely sharp correction post some muted results and overall markets- Key beneficiary of the Indian Growth story, launching innovative products over the next 2 years and has deep inroads into rural India. Focused player with strong margins.

    These are stocks that possibly also make for a balanced portfolio with a combination of high and low betas, exposure to international as well as domestic growth recovery and exposure to pure domestic plays. We do believe Indian markets can move lower hence a hedged / market neutral exposure to these stocks is advised.

    (And we dont believe Macy's could have matched these discounts on Black Friday!)



    Nov 26 5:16 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Contra Strategies - Update
    We had recommended the following stocks ( expecting a bounce irrespective of markets two days ago:

    1) BHEL (UP 5.52%)
    2) BHARTI AIRTEL (UP 2.9%)
    3) BAJAJ AUTO (UP 2.7%)
    4) ICICI BANK (DOWN 1.2%)

    Except ICICI Bank , the others have substantially outperformed Indian markets in the previous two days (S&P CNX Nifty Return 0.09%) and we recommend exits at current prices for short term investors - our outlook remains negative on Indian markets currently. We continue to recommend investors hold onto ICICI Bank as this bank is probably one of the most oversold according to our analysis.
    Nov 25 7:31 AM | Link | Comment!
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