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Sandy Lighthouse  

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  • Potash - Weak Q1 Results Cap Stock Potential [View article]
    MWin- World wide population is not rising exponentially. It is leveling off.
    May 30, 2015. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Elon Musk Is Really Selling [View article]
    You want efficient electric transportation? Try electric trains. No batteries needed. What's the most efficient mode of transportation ever invented? The bicycle.Hope is not a strategy. Repeat, hope is not a strategy.
    May 29, 2015. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Forms A New Joint Venture With Zijin Mining [View article]
    Fun Trading, Thanks for the tip on AEM. I'll look into it. If ABX reminds me of anything it's CHK, which is still at long term bottoms. Too much ego, debt, and ambition.
    May 28, 2015. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Forms A New Joint Venture With Zijin Mining [View article]
    Final point. Is ABX management acting or reacting? Looks like reacting to me, which indicates the situation is far from being under control. More like crisis engineering, which has pretty much been the mode of ABX operation since shutting down Pascua Lama (spell?). NEM prepaying loans and substantially lowering AISC is active and in control management.
    May 27, 2015. 11:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Selective [View article]
    Good article Jake. The key to making money in stocks is being right (especially in a contrarian position) and knowing that you are right, thus enabling sizable positions that ultimately succeed. I just can't do that for 100 stocks, or even 20. I get one or two good ideas a year.
    May 27, 2015. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Third Leg Of Recovery Is The Danger Zone [View article]
    OK Dana, sometimes I think you're just full of hot air. But you stated this pretty succinctly, and I think you are pretty much right on with this macro perspective. Thanks for a high signal low noise article.
    May 27, 2015. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CafePress's Depressed Stock Price Presents Opportunity [View article]
    OK Whopper, just gonna be the devils advocate, knowing nothing about PRSS other than what I've read here. Three years since the IPO and they're still losing money. Businesses that ultimately succeed generally have a history of hitting the ground running, then barely being able to keep up with demand. PRSS buying other verticals indicates that the core vertical was/is weak.

    Main competitor is Vistaprint. Vistaprint kicks butt. I wouldn't want to have them chasing me, much less me chasing them.

    PRSS sounds like a concept company that never could get the execution down. Kind of like the difference between theory and reality.

    As a COMPANY, Cafepress smells like a dog and barks like a dog. As a STOCK, I have no idea what PRSS will do.
    May 27, 2015. 06:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Forms A New Joint Venture With Zijin Mining [View article]
    Fun Trading,

    I first invested in Barrick back in '90 or 91. I haven't followed them that closely since '95, and I haven't dug very deep into their story lately. On a headline basis, ABX looks like a broken company IMHO. Took on too much debt, paid too high, got over ambitious, management team in disarray, selling off most valuable assets for less than they paid. I've seen this scenario play out on a personal basis in my industry (construction) and in public companies too many times to count. It always ends very badly, and worse than anyone thinks it will, even late into the process. Once the snowball gets headed down the hill, look out below.

    I've started looking into gold miners lately as I think inflation will take the reins from deflation in the next several years. GDX and GDXJ have too high of an expense ratio to hold long term, so I dug into regular mutual funds with lower expense ratios. I couldn't find any gold mutual fund that I could get enthused about, so I said screw it, back to individual stocks. The first gold miner that came to mind from recent headlines was NEM, which led me to your series of articles. Congratulations on dead nailing it. But your articles weren't enough to push me into NEM, so I did some research of my own. I got on Nemont's web site and looked at every single property. IMO, NEM has an excellent portfolio of properties, that are extremely well run. Selling Waihi made sense in the context of their overall portfolio. The mine was located almost within city limits and looked like nothing but trouble IMO. Let a local operator play the environmental politics.

    Then I dug into NEM's management. First off, results always tell 95% of the story, and NEM's management is doing everything right. A lot of the management team had their origins in Colorado or nearby, and are now returning to Colorado with NEM, with many coming from Rio Tinto. How does a company attract top talent? With high pay? Stock options? Ultimately the best way to attract talent is to build a team that people want to be a part of, and that appears to be happening at NEM.

    Finally, Newmont is in sound condition financially, as you pointed out. At this stage in the commodity super-cycle, financial strength is the whole game. I've seen this a hundred times in construction. The rising tide lifts all ships. People are busting their butts so it feels like their success is of their own making. The ego's get a little big, acquisitions and debt start to accumulate. Panic buying actually starts to happen as egos get even more involved in an attempt to keep assets out of competitor's hands. Then the down turn comes. Anyone with excessive debt is toast.

    Oh, I almost forgot, NEM is actually profitable. Ask ABX and GG about that. I bought AAPL in'01 as they were the only one's in the whole industry turning a profit, had a superior product, had great management, and had 5 billion in the bank.

    XOM used to be the master of this game, always acquiring at the bottom of the cycle rather than the top. Then they lost their discipline and bought Devon.

    ABX fits the pattern so perfectly that I have been too lazy to bother to dig out the details. I would appreciate hearing any counter arguments about ABX or NEM, but that's my take on the situation.

    Industry bottoms tend to happen in slow motion. No need to time bottoms by the week or even month. Gold and metals seem to be finding a bottom. Lower is still possible especially if the dollar gets stronger. The only reason to buy a commodity stock at this stage in the game is if you think the stock has the potential to substantially outperform industry peers. I believe this to be the case with NEM.

    Long NEM.
    May 27, 2015. 05:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Forms A New Joint Venture With Zijin Mining [View article]
    ABX may or may not be a value now, but I say it goes lower from here.
    May 26, 2015. 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Iwatch: You've Got To Be Kidding Me [View instapost]
    No kidding. Millions of buyers have every right to throw their money away and complicate their lives. If Apple got this right it would be hundreds of millions of buyers. And I'm changing my mind and calling it the "Iband". Thanks for your interest, sonicted.
    Apr 28, 2015. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case That Apple Is Worth At Least $200 A Share [View article]
    Thank you, Doc. I've finally distilled my dislike of the Iwatch design down to four words: Where's the risk? No risk in the design or concept what so ever. An Apple watch should rock! The Iwatch doesn't. Jobs was a risk taker. Cook is a risk averter, having been schooled by 20 years in supply chain management.
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case That Apple Is Worth At Least $200 A Share [View article]
    Hi Doc. IMHO it was not a picture perfect quarter as the Ipad and Mac both missed unit expectations by a lot. Means all of AAPL's eggs are in the Iphone basket. A lot of profits are coming out of the Chinese market which is un-analyzable to me. I consider Apple to be as much a "fashion" brand like Coach as a tech company because the hype level has been at max volume for five years. As good as AAPL's products are, the coolness factor perception by consumers can turn on a dime. Then there's the law of large numbers. As any organization of people grows in size, the motivations of individual participants tends to morph toward self interest. I've been invested primarily in tech for twenty years, and things move very quickly. I just haven't seen serious innovation out of AAPL for quite awhile. I don't think much of the Iwatch on an innovation basis. The smart phone market is entering a mature phase where prices really get driven down. I haven't seen any exceptions to this in tech. What's smoking hot in consumer tech right now? Xiomi and Chrome. AAPL and IBM won't amount to much IMO: more of a consolidation move than a growth move. This may sound crazy, but I say Windows phone starts to gain traction in the next several years. I wish all commenters here the best of success, but whatever upside there may be in AAPL appears to me to be substantially outweighed by market risk alone.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ideas, Suggestions, Disclosure, & Common Sense [View instapost]
    FGT, I regularly read your articles. Thank you. There are a lot of three year olds out there that want mommy to tell them what to do and when to do it. Investing is an intensely competitive and risky endeavor. The open exchange of ideas is a powerful tool to deal with that risk. If that bothers some people, that's their problem.
    Apr 15, 2015. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lots Of FUD On Apple Watch Launch Day Looks Bullish For The Stock [View instapost]
    I've had a day to mull this. You make some really good points, Doc. I'm sticking to my guns on this. Initial surge of sales, then negative social stigma for being seen wearing Iwatch, then dis-satisfaction with utility, then sales fall off a cliff. I nailed Google Glass from the get go. The Iwatch is cr*# design.
    Apr 14, 2015. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lots Of FUD On Apple Watch Launch Day Looks Bullish For The Stock [View instapost]
    The consumers of the world do indeed have the final say. I never thought $350 ipods would sell either.
    Apr 13, 2015. 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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