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Sandy Lighthouse  

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  • The Case That Apple Is Worth At Least $200 A Share [View article]
    Thank you, Doc. I've finally distilled my dislike of the Iwatch design down to four words: Where's the risk? No risk in the design or concept what so ever. An Apple watch should rock! The Iwatch doesn't. Jobs was a risk taker. Cook is a risk averter, having been schooled by 20 years in supply chain management.
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case That Apple Is Worth At Least $200 A Share [View article]
    Hi Doc. IMHO it was not a picture perfect quarter as the Ipad and Mac both missed unit expectations by a lot. Means all of AAPL's eggs are in the Iphone basket. A lot of profits are coming out of the Chinese market which is un-analyzable to me. I consider Apple to be as much a "fashion" brand like Coach as a tech company because the hype level has been at max volume for five years. As good as AAPL's products are, the coolness factor perception by consumers can turn on a dime. Then there's the law of large numbers. As any organization of people grows in size, the motivations of individual participants tends to morph toward self interest. I've been invested primarily in tech for twenty years, and things move very quickly. I just haven't seen serious innovation out of AAPL for quite awhile. I don't think much of the Iwatch on an innovation basis. The smart phone market is entering a mature phase where prices really get driven down. I haven't seen any exceptions to this in tech. What's smoking hot in consumer tech right now? Xiomi and Chrome. AAPL and IBM won't amount to much IMO: more of a consolidation move than a growth move. This may sound crazy, but I say Windows phone starts to gain traction in the next several years. I wish all commenters here the best of success, but whatever upside there may be in AAPL appears to me to be substantially outweighed by market risk alone.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    Apple would operate the network themselves. They find advantages in controlling the entire ecosystem.
    Feb 23, 2015. 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    TFTF, I think you've got it about right, but don't go far enough. Forget about Apple going after Tesla, BMW,etc. Apple will go after Uber and the on-demand transportation market with purpose built self-driving BEV's. Much bigger and more disruptive market. The path they take to get there would be the biggest question. They seem to be all in on this vehicle thing where ever it ends up.
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Importance Of The Apple Car Project [View article]
    How about an Apple self-driving BEV car within the context of an on-demand transportation system like Uber? Apple owns the whole enchilada and builds and and designs it's own cars optimized for urban transportation. No need for public charging station build out or retail auto outlets. Looks like a much larger and more profitable market, and it's where urban transportation is headed. Apple has unique assets that qualify it to implement this massively disruptive business model world wide. Just building another car to retail out to the public is beneath Apple. Think different, think BIG!
    Feb 23, 2015. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The iPad Faces Unprecedented Competition [View article]
    Great article Ashraf. The full size 10" ipad is toast, and the 7' ipad mini will have to be priced lower and lower to stay competitive. Thus the next leg in AAPL's growth is nonexistent. That's why I am completely out of the stock after many years. Intel wins because it will dominate the 10" market (touch or GUI), and make gains in the 7" and phone market.
    May 13, 2013. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Rehire Ron Johnson For Its Own Good [View article]
    Ron Johnson coming back to Apple would like two lovers getting back together after several years of being apart: sounds good on a certain level, but too much water under the bridge. Time for some fresh blood.
    Apr 20, 2013. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is It Really Too Cheap To Ignore? [View article]
    Juggler, As a long term holder of Apple, I agree with all of your analysis. Right now, it comes down to the potential upside of an iwatch versus the possible downside of earnings and guidance in April. Tim Cook is not an idiot, and it's possible he's keeping his powder dry because he knows things may get worse before they get better- and he may need to save whatever ammo he's got for when it's most needed. I don't see much more than 10-15 percent upside in the short term, and the long term picture is very uncertain
    Mar 10, 2013. 08:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Needs To Answer These Questions [View article]
    Very balanced and well thought out article. Keep up the good work.
    Dec 19, 2012. 02:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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