ASCO Data Suggest Dendreon's Provenge Should Go First [View article]
Not true. She called it a failed trial because it had coprimary endpoints and did not meet one. By definition that is trial failure. Pazdur and the FDA stats guys know that too. You might have been in the room but you didn't understand what was being said. Pretty sad for a guy who pretends to be a biotech expert to not know his statistics.
And how do you explain writing your story from the JnJ press release instead of seeing the data yourself first??
ASCO Data Suggest Dendreon's Provenge Should Go First [View article]
Oh, so that's your explanation for not printing the facts. Apparently it's plagiarism to report the same publicly available facts as someone else. And I guess David also owns the reasoning that the 18 months it takes for Zytiga to show its trend toward a survival benefit is a reason to prescribe Provenge first, although that reasoning jumps out at any unbiased observer. As to not crediting David, I guess your usual careful reading failed to pick up that the link above is to David's article.
A better question is why you feel the need to follow me here and continue your uninformed spin for J&J while blocking me on your twitter feed as "the biggest idiot on twitter" because I tried to engage you in discourse?
You are not a journalist and should stop pretending to be.
Dendreon: Following Up On Market Mania [View article]
That's funny, I didn't say anything about trading. I don't believe anyone, including me, can time the market successfully. I recommended shares to buy and they went up over 100%. That sounds like the start of a good investment.
I recommended the company because I believe they have found a revolutionary cancer treatment and a company like that is likely, long term, to see its shares appreciate significantly.
Your problem, obviously, is your short term perspective. I am looking long term, and still believe Dendreon has potential to be the next Celgene or Amgen. Celgene rode and is still riding Revlimid and Amgen rode Epogen. Dendreon is just beginning its ride of Provenge.
So there was an unexpected blip with the Medicare review bumping the ramp curve to the right. Big deal. Talk to me in a year or two.
And--go ask the men and their wives on the Us Too website, where I am still a valued poster informing them about the facts regarding Provenge, if they appreciate my alerting them to a new life extending treatment. Many have thanked me and continue to do so.
Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
Great article Ted, as always.
A few years from now, when it is fully established that Provenge adds years to men's lives and it is selling in the Billions worldwide, those who scoff now will be kicking themselves for not loading up in the 12's and 13's.
Dendreon: Where Do Things Stand On Provenge Reimbursement? [View article]
Excellent article, Ted, as usual.
Provenge works, for sure--the FDA has told us that.
Once Docs get used to the small changes they need to make to their practices to deal with the availability of this new therapy, the shares should start to head toward their true value.
And of course you're leaving out of your calculations that the expenses involved in their recent restructuring to account for the slower ramp are currently inflating the costs and will not continue into the future.
They could make lots of profit at $500 million if they run just one factory and close the others. They're not doing that because they expect much higher peak than that.
All you bashers just pretend that any expense that's there will exist forever and that there's no flexibility to allow for adapting to the business facts on the ground. Yes, the ramp was slower than predicted because of the CMS crap, but they are adapting to that, and the Market is blindly saying "the sky is Falling!!".
I followed your "argument" right up until the end, where you say the current price is reasonable. That gives you away, given the speciousness of the earlier part. Management says 70-80% margins at peak capacity and realizing efficiencies and with more experience. I don't believe that's anything like "wildly optimistic". You give no value at all in your attack to worldwide rights not only to Provenge, but to the antigen delivery cassette technology which has the potential to revolutionize cancer treatment, with almost no side effects.
You probably were the guy on the Apple boards a few years ago saying "selling Billions of tablet computers is wildly optimistic". "No one wants an iPod, mp3 players have been around for years and look how small the market is". "The share price looks about right at 20".
Dendreon will be shortly back where it was if the ramp speeds up in the coming year.
There is no reason to believe Medivation 3100 (if it's even approved in post-chemo in a year and pre-chemo in 2 or 3) will compete with Provenge. Good medicine dictates giving Provenge first, as early as possible, so that the immune system can get ramped up. Medivation can be given WITH Provenge, since it doesn't require concomitant steroids, ala Zytiga.
Go read the Goldman Sachs note from yesterday regarding a call they had with a bigwig urologist from the large urology group practices association saying the CMS review just screwed things up for Provenge reimbursement, they have just been able to establish a Provenge prescription protocol in his practice as of November 1, and that they just treated 7 men and have identified 100-200 more to treat in the near term. He expects massive acceptance of Provenge to show itself next year and into the future.
The fallacy in your argument is the use of 50% margins at 1 Billion in sales.
Management says they expect to approach 80% margins at that sales rate. You might not believe them, but how about re-doing your figures based upon that guidance?
Yeah they have debt, but it matures in 2016. The story will have played out one way or the other by then. But you're right, I should have said they have about $4 a share of cash on hand and convertibles that mature in 2016.
Thanks for your comment. As the exchange with Bernie above suggests I don't think Management performed perfectly in the ramp, but it looks like they are adapting to the facts on the ground now.
If docs get used to receiving $5800 for every Provenge patient treated and to the idea that reimbursement will happen in 30 days or less and be virtually guaranteed in pre-screened eligible patients we could easily see a huge surge in prescriptions over the next year.
It would be really great news if they saw indications of tumor infiltration by immune cells, supporting the theory that immunotherapy works on existing tumors by attacking them from the inside, and thus explaining the apparent failure to show radiographic proof of effects on tumor activity.
ASCO Data Suggest Dendreon's Provenge Should Go First [View article]
And how do you explain writing your story from the JnJ press release instead of seeing the data yourself first??
ASCO Data Suggest Dendreon's Provenge Should Go First [View article]
ASCO Data Suggest Dendreon's Provenge Should Go First [View article]
You published your story based on the J&J press release and didn't even wait to hear Dr. Halabi's presentation and critique of the data.
Now you're exposed for the hack you are and have to defend your not posting the facts by pretending they don't exist.
Did Dr. Halabi call it a "failed trial" or not?
I have a hundred bucks that says you'll either not answer or find a way to not admit it.
ASCO Data Suggest Dendreon's Provenge Should Go First [View article]
A better question is why you feel the need to follow me here and continue your uninformed spin for J&J while blocking me on your twitter feed as "the biggest idiot on twitter" because I tried to engage you in discourse?
You are not a journalist and should stop pretending to be.
Johnson & Johnson's Zytiga Data Argue For Sequencing Dendreon's Provenge First [View article]
Dr. Halabi called the Zytiga trial a failure and Zytiga was represented as "ineffective" on the chart she presented.
Don't know why everyone is jumping on the J&J spin.
Dendreon: Following Up On Market Mania [View article]
I recommended the company because I believe they have found a revolutionary cancer treatment and a company like that is likely, long term, to see its shares appreciate significantly.
Your problem, obviously, is your short term perspective. I am looking long term, and still believe Dendreon has potential to be the next Celgene or Amgen. Celgene rode and is still riding Revlimid and Amgen rode Epogen. Dendreon is just beginning its ride of Provenge.
So there was an unexpected blip with the Medicare review bumping the ramp curve to the right. Big deal. Talk to me in a year or two.
And--go ask the men and their wives on the Us Too website, where I am still a valued poster informing them about the facts regarding Provenge, if they appreciate my alerting them to a new life extending treatment. Many have thanked me and continue to do so.
Dendreon: Following Up On Market Mania [View article]
Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
A few years from now, when it is fully established that Provenge adds years to men's lives and it is selling in the Billions worldwide, those who scoff now will be kicking themselves for not loading up in the 12's and 13's.
Dendreon: Where Do Things Stand On Provenge Reimbursement? [View article]
Provenge works, for sure--the FDA has told us that.
Once Docs get used to the small changes they need to make to their practices to deal with the availability of this new therapy, the shares should start to head toward their true value.
Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
They could make lots of profit at $500 million if they run just one factory and close the others. They're not doing that because they expect much higher peak than that.
All you bashers just pretend that any expense that's there will exist forever and that there's no flexibility to allow for adapting to the business facts on the ground. Yes, the ramp was slower than predicted because of the CMS crap, but they are adapting to that, and the Market is blindly saying "the sky is Falling!!".
Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
You probably were the guy on the Apple boards a few years ago saying "selling Billions of tablet computers is wildly optimistic". "No one wants an iPod, mp3 players have been around for years and look how small the market is". "The share price looks about right at 20".
Dendreon will be shortly back where it was if the ramp speeds up in the coming year.
There is no reason to believe Medivation 3100 (if it's even approved in post-chemo in a year and pre-chemo in 2 or 3) will compete with Provenge. Good medicine dictates giving Provenge first, as early as possible, so that the immune system can get ramped up. Medivation can be given WITH Provenge, since it doesn't require concomitant steroids, ala Zytiga.
Go read the Goldman Sachs note from yesterday regarding a call they had with a bigwig urologist from the large urology group practices association saying the CMS review just screwed things up for Provenge reimbursement, they have just been able to establish a Provenge prescription protocol in his practice as of November 1, and that they just treated 7 men and have identified 100-200 more to treat in the near term. He expects massive acceptance of Provenge to show itself next year and into the future.
Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
Management says they expect to approach 80% margins at that sales rate. You might not believe them, but how about re-doing your figures based upon that guidance?
Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
If docs get used to receiving $5800 for every Provenge patient treated and to the idea that reimbursement will happen in 30 days or less and be virtually guaranteed in pre-screened eligible patients we could easily see a huge surge in prescriptions over the next year.
Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
Needless to say, I'm hoping for such results.