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Saul Kerpelman  

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  • Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
    Bernie, Bernie, Bernie. Did Management make CMS review coverage for Provenge?

    Did Management make lazy reporters first report and then repeat over and over the totally false "few extra months of life" BS based on not understanding statistical concepts?

    Did Management make Medicare not assign a Q code for months and require hand processing of Provenge claims, taking months and scaring docs?

    Did Management make the FDA take every possible day to approve the extra plant capacity?

    I know for certain you don't believe a fair price for 100% worldwide ownership of Provenge and the antigen delivery cassette and Neuvenge is worth less today than it was pre-FDA approval--and even pre-Impact-Trial-results.

    Yes, they overestimated how quickly the market would take to Provenge--but so did everyone, including YOU. Turned out the CMS review hurt a lot more than everyone thought. That's water under the bridge. They've taken steps to fix the problems and these very preliminary results look like these steps are working.
    Nov 7, 2011. 02:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Capitulation [View article]
    Excellent article William.

    These prices right now seem almost crazy. Not only are the shares at pre-FDA approval levels, but they are at pre-positive trial results levels. Just before the results of the Impact trial were announced the shares were trading in the 7's. These prices seem catered to the Doomsday scenario that the company fails. That seems absurd: If one extrapolates the last month's revenues the company is on pace to sell over $300 million of Provenge and the revenues have grown every month since the launch began. It was the 8th best oncology launch ever based on its first year of sales and those sales were capacity constrained because the FDA had not yet approved all three plants--something that just happened in August.

    Long term prospects are really good IMO.
    Nov 7, 2011. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    Yeah, you don't know what you're talking about. Provenge was tested against a non-treatment group that was allowed to cross over to "Frovenge". The Provenge group lived 14.2 months longer than the group of men who did not cross over. Provenge is never frozen in its manufacturing process.

    Go read the NEJM article.
    Nov 5, 2011. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medivation Up 140% In One Day, While Dendreon Gets Quartered [View article]
    Yeah, gotta say you must have written this "article" in a rush, because it is full of inaccuracies.

    Yes, Dendreon pulled Provenge guidance, but that happened August 3, not just now.

    Sales of provenge have not "slowed"--every month since launch has seen increasing sales. July 19 Million, August 22 million, September 25 Million, October 26.5 Million. So there is one month where the rate of growth slowed a little, but sales have not "slowed" at all.

    They are on a pace for 300 Million a year and growing. That's pretty good for a company with an FDA approved product and over 500 million in the bank.

    Lastly, your statement about not providing impressive survival results is not only wrong but irresponsible, should it reach the ears of any guy considering Provenge. Provenge is still the FDA approved treatment for pre-chemo late stage prostate cancer with the best survival advantage EVER.

    In all a very bad effort.
    Nov 5, 2011. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuvenge: Dendreon's Treatment For Bladder Cancer [View article]
    Ted and PEhrlich--I believe the decision was based on how crowded the breast cancer space is and also on the fact that bladder cancer has few appealing treatment options for late stage disease and is well known already to be an immune reactive cancer. The standard therapy I believe acts by stimulating immune response chemically.
    Sep 9, 2011. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Righting The Ship [View article]
    I agree Ford. As we know the 4.1 month stated median survival benefit is really likely to be very much higher, since the control group in the studies did not actually get a placebo, but instead received frozen Provenge once their disease progressed. A Duke University analysis of the study data suggests that "Frovenge" may have conferred its own survival advantage. The men who did not cross over to the frozen product of course were sicker and not a randomized sample, but the fact is that the Provenge group lived a median 14.2 months longer than the "pure placebo" group. There's every chance that real world experience may show an actual 10 or more month survival benefit from Provenge--a truly spectacular result in this population of very sick men.

    If that is borne out over time Provenge will be as big a success as management was initially guiding.

    We can legitimately hope that this current drop will just be a bump in the long term road.
    Sep 9, 2011. 07:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuvenge: Dendreon's Treatment For Bladder Cancer [View article]
    Nice article Ted. Everyone forgets that Provenge is not just a one shot drug, but the proof of the antigen delivery cassette technology that is exclusively owned by Dendreon.

    Too bad the FDA makes it so painfully slow for dying cancer patients to get the treatments they need--especially those like the venges that have almost no side effects.
    Sep 9, 2011. 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    None of us knows whether you actually have cancer or not. If you do I'm sorry for you, but that doesn't let you off the hook for making bad arguments. You say you reject Provenge as too expensive for "a few extra months" but, first, you are not on label yet, and second, you just ignore the whole point of my article, which is that with almost no side effects Provenge might give you years of extra life. Once you are a candidate I assume the same carrier that paid for all your other treatments will pay for Provenge too. When you obviously have insurance it is disingenuous for you to talk about bankrupting your family. What's with that? Also why do you ignore the fact that Provenge's hazard ratio indicates a 22.5% reduction in the risk of death? You also keep referring to "better" treatments while ignoring that Provenge is the FDA approved treatment with the best benefit ever. Prostvac results were P2 and are very suspect. Why do you think BavarianNordic can't find a partner? Lastly your referral to "koolaid" seems kind of like a tip off to me that you have more of an investor's agenda than a patient's agenda. I kind of think a true cancer patient would be happy that life extension from Provenge might be in his future rather than being so hostile and attacking the Provenge results. The biggest names in cancer research hail it as a major breakthrough. Why noy you? Smells funny to me. Sorry. Others can judge for themselves.
    Sep 4, 2011. 09:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    Again, hard to believe you are an oncologist when you don't seem to get that it is not an either/or proposition. Provenge should be sequenced early, when the immune system is strongest, and since its effect seems to improve over time. Chemotherapy can then be given if/when the patient elects to chance its ravages for the additional smaller survival benefit. It's about stacking benefits to gain years instead of months. But then of course you already know that, being an oncologist and all.

    Way too many fake doctors here IMO.
    Sep 2, 2011. 08:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    Why exactly are you posting the same thing over and over?

    Curious.

    By the way, in addition to the 4.1 month median survival advantage the study reported a 22.5% reduction in the risk of death.

    I know. That means nothing to you. You'd rather die.

    Yup.
    Aug 31, 2011. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    I'm sure your docs are overjoyed that you're here on an investor website telling the world they think the benefits of Provenge are questionable.

    Did the Pope and your mother give you that opinion too?

    Provenge is covered by all the major insurance companies for men who are on label--only a tiny percentage of men face any possibility of bankruptcy, and on top of that Dendreon has what is basically a charity program for eligible men who are uninsured and can't afford it.

    My guess is that you'll say you'd rather die than take charity.

    Your choice.

    (I don't believe you are a PC sufferer at all)
    Aug 31, 2011. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    In spite of your lengthy posts I kind of am skeptical that you are really a "medical oncologist".

    Just doesn't make sense to me that a real cancer doctor would be suggesting that rather than consider what is scientifically proven to be best for a patient he is judging what our country can bear in medical expenses for late stage cancer patients.

    Giving Provenge should be a no brainer--best survival advantage ever in the indication, almost no side effects, fully covered by Medicare and private insurers. If you are denying it to eligible patients, seems like you need a refresher course in medical ethics.

    But then, as I said, I don't believe you're a doctor. (And also one doesn't "prescribe" to a notion, but "subscribe"--another not a doctor tip off.)
    Aug 31, 2011. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    Wow, hard to know where to start. pretty clear you never worked at dendreon because you don't know how provenge is manufactured. The samples are never frozen. Further, there was in fact a crossover provision in 9901 and 9902A. Dr. Gold hasn't paid me anything, ever.
    Aug 31, 2011. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Golden Age Is Still On Track [View article]
    The reimbursement and coverage fears were not the company's fault. Much of the problem can be attributed to Medicare's decision to review Provenge and to create fears that it wouldn't be covered. Docs were fearful of not getting paid. They also were getting reimbursed very slowly because it had to be processed by hand before they got a Q Code.

    Now CMS has made a final decision for Medicare to cover AND, as above, they have gotten a Q code for automated processing.

    Good chance those new developments will solve the problem and get them back on track.
    Aug 29, 2011. 03:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Golden Age Is Still On Track [View article]
    The company just last month received a "Q code" for Provenge. This allows for computer processing of claims and a much quicker turnaround time. Docs I have talked to are being reimbursed in less than 30 days. Once word of that spreads there is a good chance Dendreon will get right back on track.

    IMO a big buying opportunity here.
    Aug 29, 2011. 03:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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