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Saul Kerpelman  

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  • Dendreon Update [View instapost]
    You seem to have your own deceptive agenda. Yes, Zibo is a potential factor in prostate cancer treatment, but no one, including you, yet knows the results of Zibo's phase 3 study. Although it had good phase 2 results, those were against pure placebo, not delayed Zibo--which would be the parallel to the Provenge study, in which after patients progressed they received frozen Provenge. Many drugs do great in P2 and fail in P3--Zibo may be no different. Next, even if it does have good results there is nothing to say it will necessarily compete with Provenge. It has a different method of operation as an endothelian A inhibitor and some brilliant people believe it will prove to be a supplement to Provenge. Yes, if AZ prices it cheaply enough carriers may insist it be given first, but that does not exclude Provenge, only delays it's administration. There may be a revenue dip while this works out in the clinic, but it is not really a fundamental long term threat to Provenge.

    I also have to criticize your jab about backing up the truck at 56 which is kind of a lie, since it lacks context. I have indeed been telling people to load up on Dendreon consistently, but you neglect to mention that that has been since it was in the 2's--anyone can verify that on Investorvillage. So if I have been consistently saying this is a stock to hold for ten years, one could say I recommended buying at 56, but it's really a stretch with an obvious agenda. Having said that, I do think those who did buy at 56 (does that include you?) will be OK as well in a couple years.
    Aug 10, 2010. 09:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Update [View instapost]
    As I wrote, long term holders will be richly rewarded. The market in the US is easily 2 Billion a year. Europe a few years out is equal or twice that size and Asia is multiple Billions as well. Provenge alone could see 5 Billion in 5-7years. The market doesn't only value current revenues, but also pipeline and a new immunotherapy will be entering the clinic each year for the next 3 or 4 years. Once there are in fact multiple successes against cancers Dendreon will be the next big biotech. It may take 10 years to play out, but it will be worth the wait.
    Aug 9, 2010. 07:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cancer Vaccines: Northwest Biotherapeutics vs. Dendreon [View article]
    I wrote on my instablog a few days ago about what a fraud this company is and how it's trying to save itself by riding Dendreon's coattails:

    I hope any potential investor will read it before putting any money into this pump and dump. They're trying to steal your money.

    Also might question Seeking Alpha editors why they refused to publish my piece, while letting this junk by Garza go out on the wires.
    Jul 16, 2010. 09:31 AM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon, The Fabled "Next Amgen"  [View instapost]
    You are obviously pretending to have knowledge you don't really have to protect whatever option position you have taken. When is the FDA going to "look at it"? Provenge is already approved by the FDA, which approved the study design. No one in the study "lost T cells"--whatever that is supposed to mean. The therapy trains and activates antigen presenting cells, which are then reinfused and IN THE PATIENT induce a massive T cell response. Just like your bud who posted similar junk earlier, you don't know what you're talking about, and frankly you're not even good at pretending you do.
    Good luck.
    Jul 14, 2010. 04:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon, The Fabled "Next Amgen"  [View instapost]
    That's total BS. The Provenge Impact trial was performed under an SPA with The FDA in which The FDA approved the trial design--further what you write doesn't even make sense: the control arm was not placebo, but guys allowed to cross over to frozen Provenge after their disease progressed, thus the 4.1 MEDIAN number UNDERSTATES the benefit of Provenge. Compared to the men who didn't cross over, Provenge had a 14.2 month median advantage. I sense that you are just trying to spread FUD, since your comment is ludicrous.
    Jul 13, 2010. 05:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon and Provenge: What if We Lived in England? [View article]
    If anyone coming here to read this worthless article cares to read a truthful article about Provenge and Dendreon please see my instablog posted today under the title Dendreon: Fear Is Our Friend.
    Jul 7, 2010. 09:23 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Fear is Our Friend [View instapost]
    Also I hope that relatively soon all the Impact data will appear in a major journal (NEJM I'm hoping).
    Jul 7, 2010. 04:36 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Fear is Our Friend [View instapost]
    Doc--The best source of facts is Biotech Stock Research, which is a subscription service. David Miller, the main guy there has been following Dendreon--and presenting the fact suggesting Provenge works--for ten years. The cross over figures and survival benefit are from FDA documents dealing with the approval of Provenge. They are public record, but hard to sift through. My figures came from BSR--but David cited FDA documents.
    Jul 7, 2010. 04:34 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon and Provenge: What if We Lived in England? [View article]
    Surprising that a "doctor" doesn't understand the difference between "average" and "median". The median is the halfway point in a series of numbers--so by definition half the men with a survival advantage in the Impact study lived longer than 4.1 extra months. Many lived for years. Eduardo Garcia was one trial subject who allowed the company to publicize that he lived an additional 9 years. Another way of looking at it is that Provenge increased a man's chances of surviving 3 years by a whopping 40%. Even these figures understate the benefit of Provenge in the study because Provenge users were not compared to pure placebo, but to a control group allowed to crossover to frozen Provenge upon progression. Compared to the men who elected not to crossover the treatment group had a 14.2 month survival advantage--the largest survival advantage ever in a late stage cancer trial!!

    Very sloppy article that proceeds from a false premise--that Provenge only "gives an additional 4 months of life". Provenge has the potential to add years to a man's life. Since it works by boosting the immune system it can be expected to work even better in men with earlier stage disease whose immune systems are not yet so compromised as the really sick late stage men in the Impact study.
    There is even the chance--expressed by the docs who ran the trial--that in earlier stage disease Provenge might render prostate cancer a chronic treatable disease and allow its sufferers to die of other causes.

    One thing I know for sure--if I had prostate cancer I wouldn't want you for my doctor.

    Sloppy, superficial work. Shameful.
    Jul 7, 2010. 09:33 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: To Short or Not to Short? [View article]
    Wow, did someone pay you to perform this hatchet job, or are you just trying to cover your own short more cheaply by spreading this FUD? Also I would really appreciate it if you could re-post this supposed article from 07 in which you predicted everything exactly as it happened back in 07--can't seem to find it in Seeking archives--but since you "made your bones" with it I am certain you would be delighted to re-post it to support the credibility of the stuff you posted today. I guess if you don't re-post I can just assume that part was a lie and today's article was just FUD. That sound fair to you? OK then. Let's see that earlier article...
    Feb 2, 2010. 09:23 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment