Seeking Alpha

Saul Kerpelman

View as an RSS Feed
View Saul Kerpelman's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Dendreon Learns From ICOS' Mistake [View article]
    "Morons"--see, that is an example of an ad hominem attack. You seem to be what you say we are. Sorry.
    Apr 6 08:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: A Pipeline That's the Envy of Big Pharma [View article]
    Great article Ted. This is the company everyone is going to have wished they bought in a few short years. Just a year ago one could have bought Apple or Amazon below 100. The company that has a possible cure for many cancers is for sure the investment opportunity of a lifetime.
    Apr 4 04:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good News for Dendreon's Provenge [View article]
    I don't think my interpretation is different than the author's--I never said a greater effect was proven, only that it looks to be likely. I also happen to have been at the CMS panel hearing and heard the author speak on behalf of Provenge and announce that they had submitted their results to ASCO. He was a very enthusuastic speaker on behalf of Provenge and seemed very excited that his results suggested even greater benefit for patients. I also am very aware that Matthew Herper has been negative on Provenge for about ten years now--almost to the point of violating journalistic ethics to give a negative bent to the Provenge story. The day before the Impact data were released he ran a story claiming that a study investigator had told him the study was going to fail. Shortly thereafter he changed the story to read "an expert". Of course then Impact unequivocally hit. He still always reports on Provenge now with the bitter sting of having been wrong about a major breakthrough treatment for ten years. Sooo--I wouldn't be quick to think that Herper is a trustworthy source for a quote from the study's author.
    Feb 20 01:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good News for Dendreon's Provenge [View article]
    Yes, but the "placebo" group was not that at all--it was 66% men who received frozen Provenge, which the new data suggests gave its own survival advantage. Check out how many men in the placebo group in the 9901 study made it to three years: One. It's funny you would use that standing on a chair analogy, when you're persisting in ignoring that the men in the "placebo" group were "standing on the chair" of frozen Provenge. The true benefit of Provenge is looking like somewhere around 10 or 11 months. That's not big to you?
    Feb 19 01:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Update [View instapost]
    Come on Bernie, the shares are far from "languishing" at 38. They are up in just over a month from 25 and you know as well as I do that they are likely to continue a steady climb upwards as more capacity comes online and as revenues continue to grow.

    As to "cure" I still don't get why you're so worked up about my continuing to truthfully point out, as have the researchers, that there is that prospect for the future. Is it wishful thinking? Sure! But it's also the icing on the cake of an FDA approved treatment for prostate cancer that has shown the largest survival advantage ever in this disease. The latter is the basis for my large investment, not the former. Still, I don't blind myself to future possibilities.

    Do you know of any other approved cancer treatments in which the researchers have stated publicly that if they were given at an earlier stage they might cure the disease? Because I don't. And even if it's just a possibility, it's still something for the market to put a value upon and for investors to consider in making their decisions.

    It's hot here in Baltimore too.
    Aug 10 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Update [View instapost]
    You seem to have your own deceptive agenda. Yes, Zibo is a potential factor in prostate cancer treatment, but no one, including you, yet knows the results of Zibo's phase 3 study. Although it had good phase 2 results, those were against pure placebo, not delayed Zibo--which would be the parallel to the Provenge study, in which after patients progressed they received frozen Provenge. Many drugs do great in P2 and fail in P3--Zibo may be no different. Next, even if it does have good results there is nothing to say it will necessarily compete with Provenge. It has a different method of operation as an endothelian A inhibitor and some brilliant people believe it will prove to be a supplement to Provenge. Yes, if AZ prices it cheaply enough carriers may insist it be given first, but that does not exclude Provenge, only delays it's administration. There may be a revenue dip while this works out in the clinic, but it is not really a fundamental long term threat to Provenge.

    I also have to criticize your jab about backing up the truck at 56 which is kind of a lie, since it lacks context. I have indeed been telling people to load up on Dendreon consistently, but you neglect to mention that that has been since it was in the 2's--anyone can verify that on Investorvillage. So if I have been consistently saying this is a stock to hold for ten years, one could say I recommended buying at 56, but it's really a stretch with an obvious agenda. Having said that, I do think those who did buy at 56 (does that include you?) will be OK as well in a couple years.
    Aug 10 09:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ASCO Data Suggest Dendreon's Provenge Should Go First [View article]
    Not true. She called it a failed trial because it had coprimary endpoints and did not meet one. By definition that is trial failure. Pazdur and the FDA stats guys know that too. You might have been in the room but you didn't understand what was being said. Pretty sad for a guy who pretends to be a biotech expert to not know his statistics.

    And how do you explain writing your story from the JnJ press release instead of seeing the data yourself first??
    Jun 9 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ASCO Data Suggest Dendreon's Provenge Should Go First [View article]
    It's Mr. Kerpelman to you--and see my response below.
    Jun 6 10:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Where Do Things Stand On Provenge Reimbursement? [View article]
    Excellent article, Ted, as usual.

    Provenge works, for sure--the FDA has told us that.

    Once Docs get used to the small changes they need to make to their practices to deal with the availability of this new therapy, the shares should start to head toward their true value.
    Dec 21 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
    And of course you're leaving out of your calculations that the expenses involved in their recent restructuring to account for the slower ramp are currently inflating the costs and will not continue into the future.

    They could make lots of profit at $500 million if they run just one factory and close the others. They're not doing that because they expect much higher peak than that.

    All you bashers just pretend that any expense that's there will exist forever and that there's no flexibility to allow for adapting to the business facts on the ground. Yes, the ramp was slower than predicted because of the CMS crap, but they are adapting to that, and the Market is blindly saying "the sky is Falling!!".
    Nov 17 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
    I followed your "argument" right up until the end, where you say the current price is reasonable. That gives you away, given the speciousness of the earlier part. Management says 70-80% margins at peak capacity and realizing efficiencies and with more experience. I don't believe that's anything like "wildly optimistic". You give no value at all in your attack to worldwide rights not only to Provenge, but to the antigen delivery cassette technology which has the potential to revolutionize cancer treatment, with almost no side effects.

    You probably were the guy on the Apple boards a few years ago saying "selling Billions of tablet computers is wildly optimistic". "No one wants an iPod, mp3 players have been around for years and look how small the market is". "The share price looks about right at 20".

    Dendreon will be shortly back where it was if the ramp speeds up in the coming year.

    There is no reason to believe Medivation 3100 (if it's even approved in post-chemo in a year and pre-chemo in 2 or 3) will compete with Provenge. Good medicine dictates giving Provenge first, as early as possible, so that the immune system can get ramped up. Medivation can be given WITH Provenge, since it doesn't require concomitant steroids, ala Zytiga.

    Go read the Goldman Sachs note from yesterday regarding a call they had with a bigwig urologist from the large urology group practices association saying the CMS review just screwed things up for Provenge reimbursement, they have just been able to establish a Provenge prescription protocol in his practice as of November 1, and that they just treated 7 men and have identified 100-200 more to treat in the near term. He expects massive acceptance of Provenge to show itself next year and into the future.
    Nov 17 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. As the exchange with Bernie above suggests I don't think Management performed perfectly in the ramp, but it looks like they are adapting to the facts on the ground now.

    If docs get used to receiving $5800 for every Provenge patient treated and to the idea that reimbursement will happen in 30 days or less and be virtually guaranteed in pre-screened eligible patients we could easily see a huge surge in prescriptions over the next year.
    Nov 7 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
    It would be really great news if they saw indications of tumor infiltration by immune cells, supporting the theory that immunotherapy works on existing tumors by attacking them from the inside, and thus explaining the apparent failure to show radiographic proof of effects on tumor activity.

    Needless to say, I'm hoping for such results.
    Nov 7 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Righting The Ship [View article]
    I agree Ford. As we know the 4.1 month stated median survival benefit is really likely to be very much higher, since the control group in the studies did not actually get a placebo, but instead received frozen Provenge once their disease progressed. A Duke University analysis of the study data suggests that "Frovenge" may have conferred its own survival advantage. The men who did not cross over to the frozen product of course were sicker and not a randomized sample, but the fact is that the Provenge group lived a median 14.2 months longer than the "pure placebo" group. There's every chance that real world experience may show an actual 10 or more month survival benefit from Provenge--a truly spectacular result in this population of very sick men.

    If that is borne out over time Provenge will be as big a success as management was initially guiding.

    We can legitimately hope that this current drop will just be a bump in the long term road.
    Sep 9 07:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    The FDA makes it hard for a company to defend itself from misinformation like this. They impose standards that require them to only mention pre specified study endpoints and bar them from providing the background data to the public.

    For instance, Provege was not tested against placebo, but against frozen Provenge after the men progressed. Frozen Provenge seems to confer it's own survival advantage--so the trial results likely understate the benefit of Provenge. The FDA won't let Dendreon tell patients this, even though for sure they would want to know it when making decision.

    Fear of "false claims" makes the FdA prohibit the flow of relevant important information.
    Aug 29 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
85 Comments
308 Likes