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Saul Kerpelman

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  • Good News for Dendreon's Provenge [View article]
    As a resource to those confused about the importance of mean vs. median I am providing the link to a Stephen Gould article on the importance of the distinction for cancer patients. Gould himself lived another 20 years after a cancer diagnosis that had a "median" survival of 8 months:

    cancerguide.org/median...
    Feb 28 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Big Push on Provenge Begins [View article]
    Big--I think it is better known than you think. It comes from the company, but they claim recognition is in the 90's for Urologists and I believe 80's for Oncologists. I think the main factor now is the intentionally slow ramp up. Nothing would be worse for the company than an early screw up hurting a patient--and so they are going slow and careful while they learn. They have also said while they are capacity constrained--limited to the approved 25% of New Jersey--it doesn't make sense for them to build up long waiting lists of impatient patients who then resent the long wait. Makes more sense for them to not start a big sales push until they can quickly and efficiently meet the demand it creates. They are working on those parts--increasing sales staff, upping the number of approved and trained centers providing the treatment--in anticipation of all three plants coming fully on line later this year. There is also the task of getting urologists used to the idea of infusions as part of their practices--pretty simple, all they need is a nurse, a chair and an IV pole (as Hans Bishop famously remarked in one of the Conference Calls)--but since they will make $5600 every time they treat a patient with Provenge that should be a pretty easy sell. For sure this is the full of tension, will they execute or won't they?, year, but if they do (and I think they will) the current share price is going to look to have been incredibly cheap.
    Feb 22 08:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon and Provenge: What if We Lived in England? [View article]
    Your post is just FUD. Provenge is FDA approved and has extended survival in 3 different phase three studies and has now been reported in the NEJM. ASCO, in its public comment to the CMS has strongly endorsed coverage. 14 of 15 local Medicare contractors have decided to cover Provenge. The "hurt the placebo group" argument has been thoroughly debunked as total anonymous nonsense by those in the know.
    Aug 10 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Following Up On Market Mania [View article]
    There are many models out there, but the simplest is a multiple of revenues for a similarly growing biotech. Generally 7-10X for this stage.
    Jan 18 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Presentation At JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: 3 Things Of Interest [View article]
    Great article Ted, as always.

    A few years from now, when it is fully established that Provenge adds years to men's lives and it is selling in the Billions worldwide, those who scoff now will be kicking themselves for not loading up in the 12's and 13's.
    Jan 10 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Market Mania In Action [View article]
    Yeah they have debt, but it matures in 2016. The story will have played out one way or the other by then. But you're right, I should have said they have about $4 a share of cash on hand and convertibles that mature in 2016.
    Nov 8 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    Yeah, you don't know what you're talking about. Provenge was tested against a non-treatment group that was allowed to cross over to "Frovenge". The Provenge group lived 14.2 months longer than the group of men who did not cross over. Provenge is never frozen in its manufacturing process.

    Go read the NEJM article.
    Nov 5 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medivation Up 140% In One Day, While Dendreon Gets Quartered [View article]
    Yeah, gotta say you must have written this "article" in a rush, because it is full of inaccuracies.

    Yes, Dendreon pulled Provenge guidance, but that happened August 3, not just now.

    Sales of provenge have not "slowed"--every month since launch has seen increasing sales. July 19 Million, August 22 million, September 25 Million, October 26.5 Million. So there is one month where the rate of growth slowed a little, but sales have not "slowed" at all.

    They are on a pace for 300 Million a year and growing. That's pretty good for a company with an FDA approved product and over 500 million in the bank.

    Lastly, your statement about not providing impressive survival results is not only wrong but irresponsible, should it reach the ears of any guy considering Provenge. Provenge is still the FDA approved treatment for pre-chemo late stage prostate cancer with the best survival advantage EVER.

    In all a very bad effort.
    Nov 5 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuvenge: Dendreon's Treatment For Bladder Cancer [View article]
    Ted and PEhrlich--I believe the decision was based on how crowded the breast cancer space is and also on the fact that bladder cancer has few appealing treatment options for late stage disease and is well known already to be an immune reactive cancer. The standard therapy I believe acts by stimulating immune response chemically.
    Sep 9 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    Why exactly are you posting the same thing over and over?

    Curious.

    By the way, in addition to the 4.1 month median survival advantage the study reported a 22.5% reduction in the risk of death.

    I know. That means nothing to you. You'd rather die.

    Yup.
    Aug 31 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    I'm sure your docs are overjoyed that you're here on an investor website telling the world they think the benefits of Provenge are questionable.

    Did the Pope and your mother give you that opinion too?

    Provenge is covered by all the major insurance companies for men who are on label--only a tiny percentage of men face any possibility of bankruptcy, and on top of that Dendreon has what is basically a charity program for eligible men who are uninsured and can't afford it.

    My guess is that you'll say you'd rather die than take charity.

    Your choice.

    (I don't believe you are a PC sufferer at all)
    Aug 31 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    In spite of your lengthy posts I kind of am skeptical that you are really a "medical oncologist".

    Just doesn't make sense to me that a real cancer doctor would be suggesting that rather than consider what is scientifically proven to be best for a patient he is judging what our country can bear in medical expenses for late stage cancer patients.

    Giving Provenge should be a no brainer--best survival advantage ever in the indication, almost no side effects, fully covered by Medicare and private insurers. If you are denying it to eligible patients, seems like you need a refresher course in medical ethics.

    But then, as I said, I don't believe you're a doctor. (And also one doesn't "prescribe" to a notion, but "subscribe"--another not a doctor tip off.)
    Aug 31 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    Wow, hard to know where to start. pretty clear you never worked at dendreon because you don't know how provenge is manufactured. The samples are never frozen. Further, there was in fact a crossover provision in 9901 and 9902A. Dr. Gold hasn't paid me anything, ever.
    Aug 31 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    You're pretty relentless, I'll grant you that. Still, most of your arguments are totally fallacious. Do you not take aspirin because they don't yet know its exact method of action? They've been trying to figure that one out for about a hundred years now.

    Seems pretty obvious a guy with PC who is on label for Provenge would be foolish not to try it--best survival advantage ever, almost no side effects, and could extend life for years.

    Don't know exactly why you're arguing against it so hard, but that seems like a very easy decision to me--for both the doctor and the patient.
    Aug 29 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: The Challenge Of Misinformation [View article]
    Thanks Ted.
    Aug 29 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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