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Saul Kerpelman

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  • Dendreon: Profits Ahead as Provenge Gets Reimbursement Approval From Medicare [View article]
    I don't really believe you are a medical oncologist--or if you are you are one who doesn't really understand statistics. The "few extra months of life" line is the giveaway. The median is the number when half of patients died. By definition half lived longer than that. Many men lived many extra years. There was a 40% improvement in 3 year survival. As to taking market share, you don't get that either--men will wind up getting sequenced therapies. It's not either/or.
    Aug 19 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Profits Ahead as Provenge Gets Reimbursement Approval From Medicare [View article]
    What you say is true about averages, but I think that's why the 3 year survival is more telling. In each of the studies the three year survival of the treated men was at least 40% better. In 9901 I seem to remember it was 33% vs. 11%. That's not averages, it's raw numbers of men making it to three years. And the treatment group always has blown away the Frovenge group. In 9901 only one "pure placebo" guy made it to 3 years.

    Something is happening there, even if it's not apparently affecting progression as progression is currently measured. Progression in PC is a messy endpoint anyway--too subjective and hard to define. Guys live a lot longer--that's the Gold Standard.

    Easy to hypothesize they'll live even longer if treated earlier with healthier immune systems.
    Aug 19 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Profits Ahead as Provenge Gets Reimbursement Approval From Medicare [View article]
    I fully realize that the data are only hypothesis generating and that they weren't matched sets--still even the NEJM article noted the survival difference and the Duke analysis aimed to at least rule out the confounders that could be--and suggested that Frovenge may very well have produced a survival advantage of its own. Just saying it looks like the advantage is more than 4 months at median.
    Aug 18 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Profits Ahead as Provenge Gets Reimbursement Approval From Medicare [View article]
    I don't understand the hang up about not stopping tumor progression. In such late stage men it seems to me that that is really asking for a lot. If it helps extend life significantly, why obsess about what it doesn't seem to do that is less important? Also I don't understand the being stuck on four months. Many men did live many years longer and 3 year survival is improved by 40%. I know you say only 32% versus 23%, but again the 23% was not "placebo" but men who got Frovenge--which seems to perhaps have its own survival advantage by the Duke analysis.

    Wait for P-11 results on delay in distant mets--if that is stat sig I believe Provenge will get a Compendium listing in earlier stage disease. Then you'll be convinced, right?
    Aug 18 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Profits Ahead as Provenge Gets Reimbursement Approval From Medicare [View article]
    So your answer is to castrate the men even more, rather than attempt instead to have the immune system kill the cancerous cells?

    What about the potential to use Provenge in earlier disease, when the immune system is healthier? I doubt there's any chance abi will make Provenge obsolete. Should be the other way around--if the cancer can be controlled at an earlier stage there may be no need to castrate.
    Aug 18 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Profits Ahead as Provenge Gets Reimbursement Approval From Medicare [View article]
    That's a 40% improvement in 3 year survival. Not 40% survival at 3 years. Still, those numbers are deceiving because the 23% survival for "placebo" includes guys who got frozen Provenge. In the earlier 9901 study only one patient who was pure placebo, not Frovenge, made it to 3 years. In Impact the survival advantage of Provenge over pure placebo men who elected not to crossover after disease progression was more than 14 months. It's not a "small" survival advantage.
    Aug 18 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Is Way Undervalued [View article]
    Read my earlier article about provenge. 30,000 men die of pc each year. Over 200,000 are diagnosed. It is the second most common cancer. Even if only 3% die wouldn't you want provenge if you were diagnosed and with almost no side effects it could perhaps cure you? Late stage market alone could be 4 billion globally and early stage 10 billion.
    Apr 22 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: A Look at the Potential for Provenge in the European Market [View article]
    Nice summary Larry. What are your thoughts on the rest of the world? I talked to Hans Bishop at the Annual Shareholders Meeting and he said they will probably partner Provenge for the Asian markets, because they will likely require new trials with an Asian population (he said particularly Japan usually insists on this). Any ideas on what they might get in such a deal?
    Feb 25 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good News for Dendreon's Provenge [View article]
    Sorry if you perceive me as attacking your character. I'm not. I don't even know you. What I am questioning is your slant against Provenge. I'm not attacking Matt Herper either--it's a fact however that his articles are not reliable regarding Provenge. As I said, I have personally heard the author present the data and he was enthusiastically supportive of Provenge. My point is that I suspect Mr. Herper did not report everything the doc said to him--selectively quoting what agreed with Herper's agenda.
    Feb 21 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Update [View instapost]
    Hi Bernie--
    I don't really know what you mean by "WORDS that have no basis in fact". I have never said that there was a clinical trial that established Provenge as a cure for cancer in earlier stage disease--although as you well know many men in the Impact study were in fact "cured" depending on how one defines "cure". Is it 5 year survival? Many men had that. Is it living long enough in spite of a prognosis of 18 months to live, to die from something else? That was true for many men in the Impact trial also. Is it clearing all cancer from the body? Again, many men in Impact had that result.

    Do you dispute that Dr. Ferarri said at the analysts day a few years ago that she expected it to work even better in earlier stage, healthier immune systems and that it might prove to be a cure? I did hear her say that with my own ears.

    We are discussing prospects and for some reason it seems to bother you that a true--as yet not proven prospect--for Provenge is to cure cancer in earlier stage disease.

    Not proven yet, but it may be proven in the future. People do invest based upon prospects.

    Why do you object to that?

    P.S.--How's the weather in Spain today?
    Aug 10 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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