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Saul Rosenthal  

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  • Celgene: An Absolutely Excellent Company With An Absolutely Terrible Valuation [View article]
    You are out of your mind. The press release says that for 2015, THIS YEAR!, "Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $4.60 to $4.75". Again, that's this year! Although they always beat estimates, let's take $4.70. That gives them a PE of 27 this year!
    Mar 20, 2015. 04:27 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Closes The Year With An Arbitration Win For Its Intellectual Property [View article]
    Kevin, This quarter they had $9 million in product revenue, and cost of sales was $6 million, so they made $3 million on their sales. Roughly gross margins of one-third. Their SG&A and R&D come to $40 million!!!!! (I'm not counting $3.5 million in restructuring charges or $5 million in research grants because that's not what this is about).

    They were pleased because Revenues were up 29% year over year. But, with those gross margins, even a 1000% increase in product revenue (10-times increase) wouldn't bring them close to break-even!!! It would bring in $30 million after cost of sales, and they'd need $37 million to break even. And that's assuming no increase in SG&A or R&D (who are you kidding?).

    How can you be bullish on them at this point?

    Saul
    Mar 2, 2015. 03:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Gains Momentum In Food Ingredients [View article]
    Kevin, Doesn't it bother you that SZYM's main future plant (Moema) is outside the country, subject to politics and vagaries of Brazil, and apparently on the land of, and under the control of, another company, which is huge, and which has other compelling interests, and which can't, or doesn't seem willing, or doesn't care enough, to even get a stable electricity supply to this factory which is SZYM's life blood. That seems to me to be a major negative, but I've never seen it even mentioned anywhere as a factor.
    Jan 22, 2015. 12:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Nike & Under Armour, Why Skechers Is The Best Investment [View article]
    My wife won't wear anything but Skechers.
    Saul
    Nov 10, 2014. 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Velti (VELT -8.3%) is off sharply after receiving a downgrade to Neutral from Janney, which cites ongoing weakness in Europe. The mobile ad agency, which reports after the close on Nov. 14, derived 55% of its Q2 revenue from Europe (including the U.K.). Americas sales, which made up 29% of revenue, are growing much faster. [View news story]
    Rockitman, Let's see what's scary:


    Last quarter: Revenue of $59 million, up 73% and up 13% sequentially from $52 million.

    Revenue less 3rd party costs (Gross Margin) of $38 million, up 60% (and resulting in a gross margin of 64% as a percentage of revenue).

    Adj EBITDA of $6.2 million, up 100% (!) from $3.1 million year over year, and up 35% sequentially from $4.6 million!!!

    Sorry, I don't see what's scary.
    Nov 5, 2012. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acacia Research Will Uniquely Benefit From Apple's Win, Has Approval From Samsung Too [View article]
    Lightseed,

    Thanks for a very helpful comment.

    Saul
    Sep 7, 2012. 01:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acacia Research Will Uniquely Benefit From Apple's Win, Has Approval From Samsung Too [View article]
    Here's how they define their non-GAAP earnings: We define non-GAAP net income as net income calculated in accordance with GAAP, plus non-cash stock compensation charges, non-cash patent amortization charges and excess benefit related non-cash tax expense.

    In other words they add back non-cash stock-based compensation charges, which is pretty standard. Then they sometimes have non-cash amortization of patent portfolio's that they've purchased outright, which seems pretty standard too. Finally they add back non-cash tax expense, which must be an accounting thing where they have to list a tax expense by GAAP rules, but they don't really have to pay it. It all seems pretty standard and routine as far as I can see.

    I haven't seen anything about non-GAAP revenues, and don't think I mentioned them in my blog.
    Sep 6, 2012. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Microcap Basket Trade Update [View article]
    CBEH didn't sell below market. They sold both at $7 and are at $6.

    They explained very well why they needed the money as they bought a facility with 50,000 tons capacity, they built another with the same capacity, they bought land and facilities where they have started to build out 200,000 tons more capacity, they bought another large gas station, they are buying a 51% of a company that distributes petroleum products to marine vessels. They expect to distribute 50,000 tons through this partnership.

    I mean, what do you want?!!!
    Feb 21, 2011. 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Listed Chinese Stocks: Mistreated and Undervalued (Part 2) [View article]
    Thanks, Kurt, for the excellent write-ups.
    Feb 15, 2011. 03:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Integrated Energy's Biodiesel Business: Cause for Concern [View article]
    XI'AN, China, Nov. 22, 2010 /PRNewswire-Asia-First... -- China Integrated Energy, Inc. (Nasdaq:CBEH - News), a leading non-state-owned integrated energy company in the People's Republic of China ("PRC"), today announced that the Company has been recognized as a top provincial High-Tech Research and Development Enterprise by the Shaanxi Provincial Government. As a result of this recognition, the Company's business in Shaanxi Province will have its corporate income tax exemption extended through the end of year 2011.

    In Shaanxi Province, only 33 companies are awarded this prestigious designation, which includes tax benefits and other support to help accelerate research and commercialization initiatives. As a leader in the biodiesel industry in China and the only biodiesel manufacturer in Shaanxi Province to receive this designation, China Integrated Energy earned this award as a result of its continuous biodiesel research and development efforts. The Company has demonstrated a high level of expertise in biodiesel production and a strong platform capable of designing and integrating next-generation biodiesel production processes.

    This designation will enable the Company to receive monetary incentives from the government to encourage research and development on biodiesel as one of the renewable energy sources. The support includes but is not limited to establishment of research facilities, enhancement of technical research capabilities, and recruitment and training of researchers.
    Dec 1, 2010. 02:11 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tianyin Pharma: Q2 Earnings on Target, Analysts Dissatisfied [View article]
    What a dumb article. The total number of diluted shares didn't actually go up, just the ones counted by the company. They have 38.8 million total shares after everything is converted, but the company only counts the ones converted at the time of the report. They converted a lot of shares in 2009, so the ones that showed up on the company's report seemed to go up. If you use the same number of shares, the total potential diluted shares (38.8 million) for Dec 2008 and Dec 2009, of course the EPS went up. The author didn't understand this at all. If their earnings actually slipped doesn't he think the price would have fallen a bunch. Actually it finished up 10 cents from where it was a week ago Friday, at the end of January.
    Feb 10, 2010. 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EBIX: A Solid Pick in the Software Sector [View article]
    They're not in a commodity business. They are in a monopoly utility business. No one ever leaves. They've NEVER lost lost even a 1% customer. Their moat is this. How can a new company come in to compete with an exchange with four or five or ten companies or brokers to choose from when Ebix can offer 500 ? That's why sales and earnings only go up.
    Dec 29, 2009. 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts on the Apple Tablet, iPhone Rumors [View article]
    You ask "However, if Apple surprises and you get a 7 inch model at a comparable price point, who the hell would buy a Kindle?"

    I think the answer is "Anyone who wants to buy electronic books from amazon!". People don't buy Kindles for "tablets", they buy them to read books and carry books with them. Considering that the Kindle has been amazon's biggest seller during the Xmas season, and that they are selling a humongous number of Kindles, that appears to be lots of people.
    Dec 27, 2009. 09:43 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Absurdly Overvalued [View article]
    Are you serious? You would stay short this stock 3 years? It could be at $300 in 3 years before eventually leveling off. Good luck!


    On Nov 07 07:05 AM Sunil Shah wrote:

    > The momentum mojos are right in one respect: a value approach can
    > predict, with reasonable confidence WHAT will happen, not WHEN it
    > will happen. But guys, the ultimate criterion will be based on rationality
    > (as it was during the 99 dotcom frenzy, as it was in homebuilder
    > stocks); reason will prevail and reason clearly dictates this stock
    > has run two maybe three years ahead of itself, in an future environment
    > as fickle and as capricious as a cloud!! Can you say with reasonable
    > conviction SFDC will maintain its 35% rev growth rate for 3 years?
    > IN THIS TOTALLY TURBULENT CLOUDY WEATHER? Time will tell, lets talk
    > in two years. I will weather the rain until then.
    Nov 7, 2009. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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