On September 22, the following article was being syndicated by Bloomberg with minor updates about every hour. Read the excerpt and then read my question at the bottom.

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. shareholders, who saw their holdings decline by more than 90 percent this year, plan to meet today to discuss alternatives to an $85 billion U.S. takeover that may dilute their stakes.

Anything can sound right, especially when articulated by a pro, but doesn't always pass the smell test. As a Democrat, I want to think that my party can do no wrong; however, the harsh reality is that no one gets it right all the time. 

Lately, several Democrats including presidential candidate Senator Obama have been advocating the idea of a windfall profits tax on oil companies. Sparked by the unprecedented quarterly profits reported by Exxon Mobil (XOM) the theory goes that oil companies that make a lot of money should give some back to the public or be taxed an additional amount to further subsidize the development of alternative sources of energy. 

There was an interesting note put out by Goldman Sachs (GS) on Thursday evening (6/12/08) wherein GS claimed that Keycorp (KEY) was in good company and that several other banks would follow suit. As we all know, Keycorp cut its dividend by 50% to $0.75 and issued stock (dilution) in order to raise $1.65B (gross) in fresh capital. 

Goldman Sachs targeted the following banks: Bank of America (BAC), Comerica (CMA), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial Corp (RF) and one of Goldman's favorites, SunTrust (STI). 

Oil peaked at $135 and has since retracted to $122. Many speculators want to know just how low oil can go before resuming its upward trend. Gary Gordon has depicted the oil boom as a hoax; "Now the only thing to keep egging the oil boom on in the near-term is the desire of speculators to make money on the long side." 

Aside from refiners, such as Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), who desperately need the price of crude to fall in order to improve margins, the price of oil affects everyone both in the commercial and private realm. 

As a courtesy to long time Seeking Alpha reader and commentator 'Lisa', who apparently is researching stocks for some recession insurance, the following is an analysis complimenting Wayne Mulligan's article.

Wayne Mulligan is reiterating this well known concept. However, it is always wise to check and see if the company is the right fit for the right downturn. To assume that a company that has done well in a previous recession will do well again in a subsequent recession is incorrect. Both companies and consumers change over time as the needs and psyche of the public migrate. For example, during the great depression, hair salons did well as people wanted to feel and look good. Does this mean that beauty parlors did well in the next recession or the one after that? Well, yes they did until the last mini recession where the public psyche changed and fitness clubs did better.

For months now we have been listening to bad news followed by more bad news about the U.S. economy and how over half the people, analysts and CFOs expect the U.S. to go into recession, assuming that we are not already in one.

Well folks, I've got the fix!

I have been quoted as saying and hereby confirm:

So this has nothing to do with options expiration, more likely to do with Citi (C) trying to get last minute concessions out of Bain & Lee which is what they always do even when times are good. This is part of the love/hate relationship that private equity has with the banks.

A long long time ago, all the ways back to August 2007 (for investors this is the equivalent of a millennium) the market gave us a present that normally comes along once every few years. I first wrote about this in August, again in September and again in November. The Tribune (TRB) deal closed in December.

Arbitrage is a game for masters as the risks involved are not for your run of the mill investor. Back in August 2007, I wrote an article entitled: Tribune Company: Low Risk, High Reward. There were several follow-up articles as the stock bounced around quite a bit. Those that stayed the course were handsomely rewarded. Is Huntsman (HUN) another Tribune (TRB) situation?

There's been a lot of varying analysis surrounding the direction of Starbucks (SBUX) over the past several weeks. There are two camps as always, the bulls and the bears. CrossProfit consensus was categorically in the bear camp from February 7, 2006 until mid September 2007 when the consensus broke. By mid October a new bullish consensus materialized. The historical, current and forward looking consensus can be seen in the 2007/2008 evaluation charts.

As an ardent student of the rating game played by analysts, I have often mentioned to colleagues that upgrades tend to be a trifle early and downgrades more often than not seem to inevitably miss the boat. I suspect that the recent belated Goldman Sachs (GS) downgrade is such a case. Sometimes the downgrades are so late that they are disseminated after the ship has sunk. Where was Steven Kron (GS analyst) six or nine months ago? The same question can be put to Jim Cramer. Lately it seems like Cramer has access to GS proprietary research and upgrades and downgrades from GS appear to follow Cramer. The opposite is a more likely scenario and I am not insinuating any collusion.

Before the bell yesterday IBM (IBM) announced that it was acquiring Cognos (COGN) for $5 billion. It pays to read our articles! Though the majority of analysts started to downgrade Cognos due to valuation, I spelled out in my previous article why this was not the case. It will be interesting to see if another suitor emerges.

For the time being, Cognos is going for $58 cash per share which looks like the top being that SAP AG (SAP) is bogged down for the moment and Oracle (ORCL) is still futzing around with BEA systems (BEAS).

Over the past seven weeks Apollo Group (APOL) has lifted off from $55.10 to close at $80.25 this past Friday. Though revenue has grown consistently from $2.25B in FY05 (ended 08/31/05) to $2.72B in FY07 (ended 08/31/07) net income has stagnated in the $409M/$428M range (Reuters). Investors, primarily large cap funds like the margins, not to mention the growth. Oddly enough this holds true in spite the fact that APOL doesn't pay a dividend.

The question is where is APOL heading, for the moon or a splashdown? With a PEG (5 yr) at 2.06 compared with the industry average (education and training services classification) of 1.86, it is fairly safe to assume that the consensus believes there is further growth ahead for the industry as a whole.

It is always a good feeling when common sense, at least what appeared to me to be common sense, comes through in the end. For months now, dozens of articles have been written asserting that the Zell/ESOP Tribune (TRB) deal was running out of ink. In two previous articles, here and here, I spelled out why logically this wasn't true. Finally, here is a Financial Times article quoting Tribune sources. All those nay-sayers and 'deal breakers' (see third article), read and weep; here it is straight from the horse's mouth:

Stand-off threatens Tribune deal

I have been through many earnings seasons and per usual I decode the markets hidden message. Sometimes the emphasis is on revenue growth other times the weight is shifted to earnings. On occasion, past and consistent performance gains credence. Some seasons stress future guidance while others focus on cash flow. The list goes on…

To date I have not been able to decipher what the market is looking at. I even tried to see if there was a daily pattern, none emerged. Take Wednesday as an example.

On the anniversary of Black Monday which happened to 'fall' on a Friday, it's a good thing that it wasn't the 13^th. Spooky as it might sound, I read some chilling articles this weekend so I didn't bother renting a Freddy (Mac) horror movie. All this pessimism is on 1/10th the magnitude of the events from twenty years ago.

It is amazing how the pendulum swings from the Great Gatsby to the Towers of Doom on a single trading day. Not that all is well with the U.S. economy, but a little perspective is in order. The price of energy is causing a ripple effect creating a stubborn upward spiral in inflation. As asset components of the CPI decrease in value, this mitigating effect is masking the true propensity of the hardship to follow.

With SAP (SAP) buying Business Objects (BOBJ) for $59.35 cash per share, it was just a matter of time before archenemy Oracle (ORCL) would make a move to close the gap. Oracle responded by bidding for BEA Systems Inc. (BEAS) only to be rejected by the board as being too low, several hours later. This implies that the attempt was a knee-jerk reaction that was not coordinated with BEAS.

Before getting into how Cognos (COGN) fits into the picture, just a few more words about BEAS. BEAS is a 'middleware' company. Oracle has made some successful acquisitions in the database and applications segments. Currently ORCL wants to beef up its middleware segment. This would render ORCL the head-to-toe capability that it is striving to obtain. In layman's terms; one stop shopping for all your software needs.

I have read so many articles by Ritholtz , Melduke and others how the official core inflation numbers spawned by our government are flat out false. Truth be told, the numbers are accurate. What the disbelievers sense but don't get is how these numbers are compiled.

I'm not going to breakdown the components; rather take an overall simplistic view to explain the emotional opinion and rational realism.

While catching up on my reading I came across this paper: "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility" by Bernard Dumas, Alexander Kurshev and Raman Uppal from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Abstract:

A recent Financial Times article totally ignores the 8% interest payment to current Tribune (TRB) shareholders starting 01/01/2008. Obviously, current debt holders have a vested interest in claiming that the Tribune can continue to operate indefinitely as a half privatized company. The fallacy in this argument is that legally this is impossible.

Financial Times 09/06/2007

A recent Financial Times article totally ignores the 8% interest payment to current Tribune (TRB) shareholders starting 01/01/2008. Obviously, current debt holders have a vested interest in claiming that the Tribune can continue to operate indefinitely as a half privatized company. The fallacy in this argument is that legally this is impossible.

Financial Times 09/06/2007