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Saurabh Tandon

 
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  • Why I'm Bearish On Netflix Each Time It Crosses $200 [View article]
    macsee,
    that is definitely something that Netflix has to its advantage….and as a guy who understands big data here are a few points worth considering…. No matter how much information NFLX has on user experience….there is just so much it can do with it
    1. NFLX will not get content for free…and content makers usually have a decent idea on what their content is worth…so at best it can make a decent optimization on its content acquisition cost
    2. Unfortunately for NFLX it will find itself in a tough spot to use that data to increase prices/revenue….it doesn’t sell any other product yet…so not sure where it will leverage that data….but raising subscription fees would be a tough one
    3. Not sure how well its using that data…given today’s article on the Arrested Development
    May 28 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bearish On Netflix Each Time It Crosses $200 [View article]
    dpaauw - its for this reason that I prefer spreads... things take time and I prefer to minimize time degradation. However, I am certainly enjoying this downward move over the last week
    May 28 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bearish On Netflix Each Time It Crosses $200 [View article]
    all thoses costs are included infrastruture and content acquisition. And personally I am not sure if NFLX is a brand. In my mind Brand is something that you buy in spite of more valuable or identical and cheaper alternative.... eg. Coke and Pepsi are a brand....we all know that 70% of the people fail in a blind test of their favourite soda yet they continue to buy their soda.... an if you were to give them a free month of supply of some generic identical soda....they would still not take it or go back to their brand after the free trial
    May 22 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bearish On Netflix Each Time It Crosses $200 [View article]
    I am not a big fan of using multiples of Revenue as a valuation methodology....my analysis is based on valuing NFLX by replicating it. If i had insane amount of money...how much would it cost to force NFLX out and establish my neoNet....which is just cost of content, infrastructure and customer acquisition
    May 22 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bearish On Netflix Each Time It Crosses $200 [View article]
    the cost for general availability is part of infrastructure (technology and development) cost in the analysis....
    May 22 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bearish On Netflix Each Time It Crosses $200 [View article]
    @videoman
    Let’s look at this froma futuristic view, and take a company like AAPL or GOOG with deep pockets. If they choose to enter this market and make a DECENT attempt at it, the only barrier would be content acquisition. They have the infrastructure in place (or can put it up for pennies) and I am pretty sure that if any consumer was paid $50 they would switch (assuming all new content was non-exclusive). If the new entrant was to get exclusive rights to all content being produced (that NFLX would otherwise acquire in the next year or so) then you wouldn’t need to even pay switching cost, because many consumers would switch just for that. So if its about the content…the entire content library (current and past) is not worth more than $3B for NFLX. In the next year NFLX plans to spend $2-3B in content acquisition. If there was a bidding war between NFLX and the new entrant such that the new guy got all the content it would cost the new guy say $4B. Maybe $8b for next 2 years of content. 2 year of no new content is sufficient to end NFLX.
    Either exclusive or not….i don’t understand why this company from a replication point of view is worth $13.5B
    May 22 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bearish On Netflix Each Time It Crosses $200 [View article]
    @Mitch....are you suggesting that the content acquisition would be lower....???
    May 22 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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