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Sava

 
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  • Why Facebook Will Definitely, Surely, Assuredly, Certainly Not Be Trading At $58 When 2015 Starts [View article]
    Why would it need to find a new niche? FB's y/y ad revenue growth has average 56% this year (43% Q1, 61% Q2, 66% Q3). Sounds like they just need to keep doing what they have been doing - if they can do anything close in 2014 to what they have done in 2013 - their valuation isn't a huge deal.
    Jan 17 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exponential Growth In Mobile Advertising Makes Facebook A Buy [View article]
    Did you read the sentence? His usage of "tailwinds" literally does not make sense. I wasn't making a joke or disparaging the prospects of Facebook. It is in the first paragraph. He says "I do not see any serious tailwinds to halt FB's continuous ascent next year." Tailwinds do not halt an ascent, headwinds do.
    Dec 27 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exponential Growth In Mobile Advertising Makes Facebook A Buy [View article]
    You say "tailwinds" when I think you mean "headwinds"
    Dec 26 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Bubble's Achilles' Heel [View article]
    I came to this article to read about the market's Achilles Heel. What click-bait. There was no extended metaphor of the famous battle between the Greeks and the Trojans - I was left asking myself, where is Hector in all of this? Has he already been brutally slaughtered by Achilles or are we still waiting for Hector to kill Patroclus? That seems like an important point to have an opinion on in the medium term if I want to play this downturn you are predicting.

    If the market is on the side of the Greeks are you saying the bull market we are in will experience a major setback but ultimately continue its upward trend, mimicking the Greek victory over the Trojans?

    I simply ask, that if you are going to dip your toe into a classical reference, go for it and don't go half way like this article has by mentioning Achilles in the title and leaving my Liberal Arts education with little else to work with.
    Oct 27 01:11 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Soon To Be A Shell Of Its Former Self, Like AOL [View article]
    You say: " I do wonder how many users are truly active though."

    Well wonder no longer! Facebook discloses it Monthly and Daily Active Users. They even disclose Mobile vs Desktop usage! And they disclose usage by geography! Who Knew? It's incredible what you can find if you read a company's public disclosures! Think of the possibilities! You could save so much time by not having to wonder =D

    See these links:
    http://bit.ly/1dJfHBF

    http://tcrn.ch/1dJfHBJ
    Sep 25 12:45 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    In so far as that is legitimate, it will be settled for an immaterial amount out of court.
    Sep 10 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    You aren't under an obligation to buy FB shares, but don't expect your opinions on valuation to be taken that seriously when there are people who do that research.
    Sep 9 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    gwynfryn,

    You state:
    "we all judge a situation primarily according to our own taste"

    You have many other options open to you. You can read advertising industry articles, blogs of advertising companies, conference calls and quarterly reports of publicly traded ad companies. You can go to the following web page of award winning facebook ad campaigns: http://bit.ly/1cQe2K7

    All of the above resources have a lot to say about whether advertisers think Facebook works, and whether they are going to spend more money with them. There are many more substantial ways to have an informed opinion than your own limited experience with Facebook. You are 1 user of more than a billion.
    Sep 6 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    I think it is very dangerous to recommend shorting something on valuation alone. Do I think valuation in the long run will reflect true value every once in a while? Yes. In the short term there is nothing stopping a stock price from becoming twice as stupid as its previously stupid valuation. People haven't had a lot of fun shorting Tesla based on valuation.
    Sep 5 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    "If advertisers give up on it?" - What evidence do you have that points to advertisers "giving up" on facebook?
    Sep 5 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    Excuse me for rounding percents. A lot can change, but you didn't present reasons why, which is ultimately my issue with your article. Saying the stock isn't a safe investment, or saying it has no margin of safety is one thing. Saying its something people should consider shorting is very different.
    Sep 4 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    How many years is many, many years? If you take the 2013 estimate of $7.32 billion, what the rates of growth and the amount of time it would take to get $100 billion to equal 4x sales are:
    10% - 13 years
    20% - 7 years
    30% - 5 Years
    40% - < 4 years

    If you take $7.32 billion as 2013, that would be growth of 44%, so I think 4-5 years is pretty reasonable. Its a while, but I wouldn't call it many, many years. By the way, with revenues at $25 billion, their margins are gonna justify a crap ton higher market cap than $100 billion.
    Sep 4 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    Bill, I didn't mean to come off as a dick. After seeing some of the comments, I think plenty of people should cool their enthusiasm (or at least reconsider their reasons for being long facebook). I do disagree with your fundamental point though. If you like Facebook's team and think they can execute well without many hiccups, I don't think $42 is a bad price to pay for Facebook, even if it drops back to $30 on some sort of news, it's opportunity is so vast if you are long-term oriented, it would just be a better bargain.
    Sep 4 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    From Wikipedia: "Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing its financial statements and health, its management and competitive advantages, and its competitors and markets."

    You looked at its financial statements, though you didn't discuss them in any sort of depth, and you don't add any insight on the value of the company. You just say the stock price is high. High compared to what? You know revenue from mobile advertising is up 76% in Q2 from Q1 (3 months)? If that growth continues at even a reduced rate for a couple quarters, a $100 billion valuation is going to look cheap. A lot of the changes to ads Facebook is making that advertisers are excited about, weren't even in the Q2 results but for a week or two. Sept 10, they are actually rolling out substantial changes that should be a very big deal for many advertisers and agencies. This company is still very early.
    Sep 4 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    Are the things I mentioned in a Yahoo Finance business summary? Adding value by understanding the dynamics of the business better than the majority of investors is the essence of value investing. Relying on backwards looking financial metrics might be great for cigar butts, but for a company like Facebook, it is incredibly relevant to understand if Facebook's ads are getting better, if companies like Proctor & Gamble are going to allocate more of their advertising dollars with them, if Facebook ads represent a better value at their prices right now than other channels, etc...
    Sep 4 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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