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  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    How many years is many, many years? If you take the 2013 estimate of $7.32 billion, what the rates of growth and the amount of time it would take to get $100 billion to equal 4x sales are:
    10% - 13 years
    20% - 7 years
    30% - 5 Years
    40% - < 4 years

    If you take $7.32 billion as 2013, that would be growth of 44%, so I think 4-5 years is pretty reasonable. Its a while, but I wouldn't call it many, many years. By the way, with revenues at $25 billion, their margins are gonna justify a crap ton higher market cap than $100 billion.
    Sep 4, 2013. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    Bill, I didn't mean to come off as a dick. After seeing some of the comments, I think plenty of people should cool their enthusiasm (or at least reconsider their reasons for being long facebook). I do disagree with your fundamental point though. If you like Facebook's team and think they can execute well without many hiccups, I don't think $42 is a bad price to pay for Facebook, even if it drops back to $30 on some sort of news, it's opportunity is so vast if you are long-term oriented, it would just be a better bargain.
    Sep 4, 2013. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    From Wikipedia: "Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing its financial statements and health, its management and competitive advantages, and its competitors and markets."

    You looked at its financial statements, though you didn't discuss them in any sort of depth, and you don't add any insight on the value of the company. You just say the stock price is high. High compared to what? You know revenue from mobile advertising is up 76% in Q2 from Q1 (3 months)? If that growth continues at even a reduced rate for a couple quarters, a $100 billion valuation is going to look cheap. A lot of the changes to ads Facebook is making that advertisers are excited about, weren't even in the Q2 results but for a week or two. Sept 10, they are actually rolling out substantial changes that should be a very big deal for many advertisers and agencies. This company is still very early.
    Sep 4, 2013. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    Are the things I mentioned in a Yahoo Finance business summary? Adding value by understanding the dynamics of the business better than the majority of investors is the essence of value investing. Relying on backwards looking financial metrics might be great for cigar butts, but for a company like Facebook, it is incredibly relevant to understand if Facebook's ads are getting better, if companies like Proctor & Gamble are going to allocate more of their advertising dollars with them, if Facebook ads represent a better value at their prices right now than other channels, etc...
    Sep 4, 2013. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    If you have liked a brand, company, or something else, their posts will show up in your newsfeed even if they aren't paying for it. A lot of critics of Facebook will point to screenshots of "ads" that aren't ads at all.

    That 5% is for total newsfeed ads of all types across all of Facebook's billion+ MAUs. It is possible and even likely you have more than 5%, as that is only the average.
    Sep 4, 2013. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    Do you know what % of newsfeed posts are ads, on average? 5%. Not a ton. The company has stated they don't want to go any higher than that.

    You would think people would get bored of Facebook, even Mark thought that over time Daily Active Users as a percentage of Monthly Active Users would decline. It hasn't. That ratio has only gotten higher even as Monthly Active Users continues to grow.
    Sep 4, 2013. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait, Facebook Is Worth How Much? [View article]
    You know what this article has nothing of? Discussion of Facebook's business. Wouldn't that be relevant to the valuation of the company? Knowledge of the secular tailwinds in digital advertising, of Facebook's share of eyeballs on mobile devices, of the discrepancy between time spent on social and mobile and ad spend on social and mobile as percents of total time spent consuming media and total ad spend.

    Anyone who thinks this articles has bottoms up, fundamental analysis is kidding themselves. Before you suggest something is over or undervalued, take the time to actually learn the business.
    Sep 4, 2013. 08:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasdaq: Sell-Off After eSpeed Deal Offers An Entry Opportunity [View article]
    John, you might want to go share your insight with NDAQ and NYSE executives because they think it has only to do with HFT.
    Aug 26, 2013. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining Facebook's Potential Reveals Tremendous Opportunities [View article]
    Have you heard of Farmville or Candy Crush Saga? They have been a game platform for some of the most popular online games in the world.
    Aug 15, 2013. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining Facebook's Potential Reveals Tremendous Opportunities [View article]
    Advertising....totally sketchy - 85% of Google's revenue comes from advertising. Napster has almost nothing in common with Facebook except that you needed an internet connection to connect to either? No other "social media" company comes even close to FB's user numbers. On average it is reported approx. 20% of time spent on mobile devices is spent on FB. There isn't a close second for those eyeballs.
    Aug 15, 2013. 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining Facebook's Potential Reveals Tremendous Opportunities [View article]
    LinkedIn is valued as a $30 billion company. Facebook is valued as $110 billion. Facebook "cost" more than LinkedIn, as it should. Share price does not matter one bit without any context. If LinkedIn only had 30 shares outstanding each share would be worth $1 billion at the current market cap.
    Aug 15, 2013. 08:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Lies In Store For Facebook? [View article]
    First, what I said in my first comment isn't true: there was 76% revenue growth in mobile ads on a sequential quarter basis but that was a $282.09 sequential difference. The total revenue from mobile ads was $655.59 million - which is all revenue that didn't exist a year ago.

    The opportunity in buying this is as follows: Martin Sorrell - CEO of WPP the largest advertising company in the world before the merger of Omnicon and Publicis points out that print has 25 percent of advertising spend but only accounts for seven percent of consumers’ media time. Conversely, mobile devices account of 10 percent of media time but get just one percent of ad spend. Over time ad spend should adjust to better align with time spent. It is natural there is a discrepancy because mobile is such a new platform, and print is such an entrenched (but struggling) piece of the advertising pie.

    There is no alternative to Facebook for mobile ad spend. It is estimated that 20% of people's time on mobile devices is on Facebook. There isn't a close second.
    Aug 14, 2013. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Lies In Store For Facebook? [View article]
    If you are in the stock for what it did yesterday you invest differently than I do. I don't like Sheryl Sandberg selling all of those shares, but I can still use my head and realize that over the next 2-3 years this company has huge opportunity and the share price does too.
    Aug 14, 2013. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Lies In Store For Facebook? [View article]
    The price of shares by itself has nothing to do with the valuation of the company. If some marginally profitable regional pet store had 1 million in net income annually and sold 500 shares, it would be entirely reasonable for each share to trade at a 10x P/E multiple and therefore be worth $20,000 each.
    Aug 14, 2013. 08:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Major Factor Limiting Facebook's Growth Potential [View article]
    You realize 85% of Google's revenues are from advertising right?
    Aug 13, 2013. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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