Savage Capital

Want to Reform Wall St.? Bring Back Partnership Investment Banks

if the banks had the ability to go private tomorrow, do you think they wouldn't?

guy who commented above: do you actually think that if any of the "too big to fail squad" were private institutions it would create a scenario where this situation would not have become a public burden? furthermore, claiming that this should have been a solely private issue seems naive given that everyone benefited. maybe the banks' employees, at least those that were smart enough to trade out of their positions or those who were overly compensated, benefitted disproportionately, but the real estate/credit bubble arcade was open to anyone who had enough change to put in the machine.

Four Stocks for 2009

i would be wary of betting on solar and infrastructure on the back of obama's stimulus. solar cant exist profitably given current energy economics. infrastructure will benefit at the private, govt and too small for stock pickers too benefit level. home builders, certain banks and the life insurers are where you want to be if you believe the global stimulus will work. if you put a gun to my head, i would take FSLR over JASO and MR over CMED.

Restaurant Stocks on the Rebound

outside of sliding gas prices and the potential for stimulus, what is telling you that consumer spending has bottomed? every forward indicator i look at tells me consumer spending, while close to the bottom (how could it not be at these levels) has not troughed. i do believe we're close, and maybe an awful Q4 followed by a horrific Q1 will get us there, but i cant find the data to prove that consumer spendning will turn in 6-9 months (decelerating deceleration, bottom for consumer confidence, increased demand for inelastic products as price plummets, etc), and, naturally, this leads me to believe that the group has raced ahead of itself.

Focus Media / Sina Transaction: Think Outside the Box to Make Profits

1. what happened to FMCN's strong fundamentals mate? companies with strong fundamentals dont get forced into selling the crown jewels. how did they get backed into selling the only piece of the company worth anything? they started by shooting their credibility time and time again (why else would a stock with those kind of analyst growth projections sit at such an attractive valuation for so long?). then they filed to spin/jv/ipo/sell their internet business, which is actually a good one. when they couldnt get a buyer (because no one wants to deal with this management team and their fiction), they started scrambling.

2. arb trade on this one? really? you're running out in front of a steamroller to pick up a few nickles. dont do that. theres plenty of opportunity out there with better risk/reward characteristics.

3. i actually think that when you strip out the SINA shares, valuation looks pretty attractive for the rest of the business (then again, it looked cheap as a whole FMCN at 50, and 40, and 30...........and if you're mr.scheidt, even at 10.......what a deal!). that said, i still wouldnt touch it with a 20 foot pole. its china and its advertising; ad lags in and it lags out, there is no rush.

4. hopefully you read my comments on this guys last FMCN post.

all that said, the band kept playing their instuments as the titanic went down- for all their follies, at least this management team was smart enough to sell their fiddles before china gets even worse. the smart move is proababally for you to do the same.

Focus Media Holding Limited: Signs of the Times

and how is buying back adr's a good thing? they are telling you that either: a. there is no growth out there they can acquire the way they once did, or, b. there is growth that can be acquired but theyre too incompetent to integrate/structure a deal (CGEN).

they have no debt. wow. they could have all the cash in the world and it wouldnt matter if it turns out theyre cooking the books, which remains the bear case out there. i dont believe they are, but that massive short interest that keeps going up every time the stock rallies tells me someone else does.

ad lags into a downturn. ad lags out. why bother being early on the chinese economy by getting long a low quality company w/ a garbage management team and possibly a broken growth story?

the chinese consumer is going to be absent for a long time. these people save tons. things have been good for some time, but they can remember the way things were 35 yrs ago. thus, theyre going to save more. there is no demand from the west to save them. the govt wont directly stimulate businesses to advertise.

and, most importantly of all, only 25% of their population has a pot to piss in.

maybe find yourself a nice porcelain company to invest in instead.

Focus Media Holding Limited: Signs of the Times

This stock is completely disconnected from the fundamentals. There is no reason to talk about them. Why? Because it will go nowhere until the cfo is gone and the founder is out. They gave guidance on Sept analyst day and then came in light without an explanation. They held a 3 minute conference call and refused to give a realistic answer to a single analyst. You are a sucker if you think this thing is worth buying because its cheap. Wakeup. My guess is it sits between 3 and 13 for 1H09, and maybe it will catch a bid if the mgmt gets ousted or they sell all/pieces of the business. Cant make a conviction buy or sell call on this one at these levels.