Scott Benson

What Really Caused Oil to Boom?

The steep drop in the oil price from $147 last summer to $30 six months later can only be explained by speculation (too much borrowed money by hedge fund tennagers looking for the "investment of a generation") and the weaker dollar (which coincidentally hit $1.6 per euro and strengthed once everyone started to flee for cover to the U.S. dollar to $1.25 per Euro), and not by supply and demand (which is cooming). Today's incredible oversupply of oil and natural gas today only confirms that explanation.

Petrobras Looks More Compelling Than Ever

If Venezuela continues to make overtures towards cutting off oil to the U.S. (to send to the damn Chinese), Brazil may just have a place to sell it. :) We'd need to replace 1 mbpd that we'd normally get from Venezuela then. But today, very little Brazilian oil comes to the U.S., and since Brazil is a huge country and is set to become a global superpower, and its birthrate is healthy, and since everything is so far apart in Brazil, don't be too surprised if Brazil needs all their oil to push all their diesel equipment. Everyone thinks Brazil moves on sugarcane ethanol. It doesn't (ethanol is 20% of transportation fuel at best). It uses and needs diesel.

Petrobras Looks More Compelling Than Ever

Not to mention it is going to be incredibly expensive (moreso even than you said) to get the Tupi/Carioca oil out, if you even can get it out.

Petrobras Looks More Compelling Than Ever

Um, Chavez is in Venezuela, not Brazil. Two different countries. Plus, even if Chavez nationalizes more of HIS stuff, his country is an inflation nightmare, with shortages of all the important materials. His model for the future cannot stand. And if you were referring to some kind of "Brazilian Chavez" angle, I'd say it won't work long term.

Remember Those $200 Oil Predictions?

We have to take into account 1) after several years of "partying" with the home equity lines of credit, followed by a predictable slowdown and 2) this being a pretty mild summer and 3) there haven't been any REAL disasters this year, we haven't had the need to tap energy very much. But when things start getting messy (boiling summers, freezing winters, pent-up demand by the emerging global middle class, with energy strained from pole to pole), I think we'll be back to the races in energy prices. Demand took a break in 2008 (and supply continues to die.) Doesn't mean it has to stay that way for very long.

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA... I use the media for my gathering of energy-related knowledge, but you have perfected it! With the exception of the massive drop (for now) in demand that I will agree is happening, gasoline and diesel are here to stay. Your alternatives are nonsense -- they will cost way too much. Hydrogen???? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...

Natural Gas & Wind Power - The Pickens Plan

In the 1990s, we already tried the natural gas vehicles (my organization had CNG pickups and vans that I helped manage). They didn't work for a number of reasons. And the wind, while it will play a role in electricity supply, doesn't work if it isn't windy, and you end up keeping all the coal-fired plants on-line (and hot) anyway for when the sun isn't shining and it isn't windy. The plan is fine on paper. In the real world, I don't see this coming together. But we are gonna need to electrify transportation, one way or the other. Nukes probably.

Supply and Demand in the Oil Market

Speculators are also called investors. I am a speculator. I make bets on whether I'll have any retirement funds or not. If I win, gimme my money. If I lose, I am the one who gets screwed. The commodities markets allow farmers to guarantee a return on their crops, no matter what happens. The commodity markets transfer risk. I suppose you can have any prices you want -- you can also have the lying communist government that goes with it.

Supply and Demand in the Oil Market

The precipitous drop in crude oil prices in the last 3 weeks has me thinking: #1 weren't the speculators found to be not guilty for the run-up in crude prices? Because it is sure looking like they were to blame all along. #2 just before the Congressional election of 2006 that fall, pump prices were strangely lower, suggesting "Republican forces" or the "Saudi Govt." were manipulating, trying to get Republicans elected. #3 what's gonna happen when the Commie Olympics is over on the 24th, and China resumes its buying of any and all oil not nailed down. And #4 does a puny drop in driving of 2-3% (which likely will rebound when the frigid cold arrives, and also when oil demand worldwide ramps up as it usually does in the 4th quarter) match up with a 20% drop in crude oil prices? Now THAT'S inelastic. Just how much has demand for oil actually dropped? How bad is the U.S. economy doing really?

Will Automakers Switch to Natural Gas?

(You are wrong about the "tanks exploding." I believe the industry when they say the tanks are relatively safe. I don't think NG vehicles will work for the reasons stated above.)

Will Automakers Switch to Natural Gas?

I'm sorry, I forgot to mention also that there is no future for natural gas in North America. The U.S. has been on a natural gas (NG) production plateau for the last 30-40 years, drilling more and more wells to get out the same amount of gas. The U.S. produced 22,000 bcf in 1973 with 125,000 wells. We produced 19,000 bcf in 2005 with 425,000 wells. And, the newest wells deplete faster than the older ones. Canada, where we get 1 out of every 5 therms of NG, is running low as well. Even if we get the liquid natural gas (LNG) rocking more effectively, the price for the stuff won't be cheap (for one thing, we'll have to outbid Japan, Spain and S. Korea for LNG, plus everyone else trying deperately to avoid having to buy Russian NG). Electricity is the only hope for the future, and even that is problematic. Blah.

Will Automakers Switch to Natural Gas?

(Yes, Putin is stupid)

Will Automakers Switch to Natural Gas?

As someone involved with natural gas (NG) vehicles in the 1990s, I can say that NG vehicles are a non-starter. We've already tried this (NG Chevy pickups, Ford & Dodge vans). Even BP/Amoco saw the handwriting on the wall and closed all of their NG stations in the 1990s (huge electric expense in compressing the gas, as well as for maintenance of the stations). NG is not a problem-free energy source. All NG vehicles need tank inspections every 3 years from inspectors that don't exist -- and if a cylinder is damaged, it has to be removed. Drivers (picture 50 y.o. secretaries) are not happy sitting on 3,600 psi+ cylinders (that take up space). If you've never heard the explosion caused by a pipe breaking on a vehicle during a NG fillup, you are lucky. The cost for installing the heavy tanks (made with pricy metals) is in the thousands. There are no NG stations anymore -- which is the biggest problem. This is the next great alternative vehicle fuel? Forget it. Boone Pickens is out of his mind.

More Bad News for the Anti-Ethanol Crowd

Corn ethanol will never displace any real quantities of gasoline and diesel in the U.S. The U.S. consumes 25,000 trillion BTUs in its gasoline and diesel vehicles per year. If every single kernel of corn was used to make ethanol/E85, it would produce 3,600 trillion BTUs of fuel. That's 15% (at best) replacement of the traditional fuels. Ethanol is a boutique fuel, and nothing more. It will never be "big time." The math is easy, but there are a lot of zeroes.

And You Think Today's Gas Prices Are High?

Having lower prices on electronic "gee-whiz" items like I-pods, DVD players and laptop computers (nice to have but are hardly necessary for true happiness in life) doesn't mean very much. Try comparing the REAL costs of good living: food & energy, health care, education. Toys aren't much of a measure.