Scott Berry

WiMax Empire Poses Continual Threat to the AT&T Network

Everyone here seems to be missing a critical distinction. While there have been some modest successes in WiMax so far, they've all been fixed wireless. No one has (to my knowledge) deployed a successful *mobile* WiMax network--successful in the sense of operation or profitability. There is no 3-year head start over LTE here.

As for Sprint/Clearwire, the latter has mostly been focused on slower 1-2 Mb/s fixed and nomadic deployments, to decidedly mixed customer reviews. Sprint is 8-12 months behind their initial WiMax deployment plans, and that's before the distraction that is being caused by the joint venture.

I suspect both technologies will coexist eventually and perhaps complement each other in some ways. But it's not a slam dunk for WiMax by ANY indication.

FiOS, Cellular Won't Save Verizon - Sanford Bernstein

FiOS is a defensive play to stop erosion on local loop services, with an option on undeveloped bandwidth hungry apps.

Note they are tearing out copper wherever fiber goes in. This sharply reduces opex and allows them to upsell video, which they couldn't before. Line losses to wireless--much going to Verizon anyway--and competition from cable is offset by a lower plant operating expense and revenue upside.

The option comes from future-proofing their outside plant. First fiber to the home wins.