Scott Berry

WiMax Empire Poses Continual Threat to the AT&T Network

Everyone here seems to be missing a critical distinction. While there have been some modest successes in WiMax so far, they've all been fixed wireless. No one has (to my knowledge) deployed a successful *mobile* WiMax network--successful in the sense of operation or profitability. There is no 3-year head start over LTE here.

As for Sprint/Clearwire, the latter has mostly been focused on slower 1-2 Mb/s fixed and nomadic deployments, to decidedly mixed customer reviews. Sprint is 8-12 months behind their initial WiMax deployment plans, and that's before the distraction that is being caused by the joint venture.

I suspect both technologies will coexist eventually and perhaps complement each other in some ways. But it's not a slam dunk for WiMax by ANY indication.

Will the Internet Harm Media's Major Players?

Seth, great summary and analysis. I tend to think Lehman is wrong, at the very least in their timing, but probably overall.

One nit: ripping DVDs is only slightly more difficult than copying songs off of CDs. The important point, however, is that it only has to happen once. Then the toothpaste is out of the tube.

Two things you didn't mention that should be noted:

1. Production costs for "good" (big budget) video are significantly higher than for music. And it can be performed live, so there's still a revenue stream. Thus, while piracy won't necessarily kill music it could conceivably destroy Hollywood video if piracy manages to shrink revenue sufficiently (I don't believe it will).

2. Part of the change to the music model was that people could get (legally or otherwise) single songs instead of albums. As much as 90% of a CD that used to yield revenue/profit is now at risk as people buy the wheat and ignore the chaff. That option doesn't exist for movies (though it might for TV series). So there's another difference.

Again, good show, I like your stuff!

Veoh Raises $30 Million: Is There Room for Another YouTube?

I disagree. There's no step up, or other change, in the Veoh trend line to indicate the Stage6 devotees went there, despite the best efforts of DivX. If they did, Veoh must have lost other uniques in the process. I suspect there is no Stage6 "block" out there anymore.

Comcast, Time Warner: The Broadband Salad Bar

bck136: I don't think option 1 will ever happen; wall street won't let them backpedal at this point. I'm saying it's option 2 as you suggest, but that their net neutrality ploy will largely fail, leaving option 2a (tiered service). 2a is sort of a half-assed version of your option 3.

Comcast, Time Warner: The Broadband Salad Bar

chush.net: The telecablecos have to be the only companies I've heard of that try to get you to use less of the thing they're selling. But that's what happens with a fixed price model.

chancer: Only if the Chinese have a wire (or radio) that reaches your house.