Scott Berry

Will the Internet Harm Media's Major Players?

Seth, great summary and analysis. I tend to think Lehman is wrong, at the very least in their timing, but probably overall.

One nit: ripping DVDs is only slightly more difficult than copying songs off of CDs. The important point, however, is that it only has to happen once. Then the toothpaste is out of the tube.

Two things you didn't mention that should be noted:

1. Production costs for "good" (big budget) video are significantly higher than for music. And it can be performed live, so there's still a revenue stream. Thus, while piracy won't necessarily kill music it could conceivably destroy Hollywood video if piracy manages to shrink revenue sufficiently (I don't believe it will).

2. Part of the change to the music model was that people could get (legally or otherwise) single songs instead of albums. As much as 90% of a CD that used to yield revenue/profit is now at risk as people buy the wheat and ignore the chaff. That option doesn't exist for movies (though it might for TV series). So there's another difference.

Again, good show, I like your stuff!