Scott Gibson

Scott Gibson
Contributor since: 2011
Company: ETF Maximizer and 401k Maximizer
I think that you just hit the nail on the head with your fundamental analysis. Our company publishes newsletters describing current market bias, etc. and my conclusion is that there is a lot of risk in the market. In fact, the NASDAQ Composite is now trading over 34% above its 200 day moving average which is an extremely overbought level vs. vs. historical values. I think that we will probably see the market consolidate its recent gains over the next month or so, and or trade much lower. If the market behaves seasonally then we will consolidate for a month or so and run up into an early summer high before selling down hard into the fall. But the bottom line is that I don't believe there is a whole lot of upside left in the rally for the next month or so.
I still own positions in SLV that I have owned for close to a year because I want to own them long term for capital gains purposes. Consequently, I ride the waves up and down hedging during down trends and adding to my postions during up trends. I do believe that the Presidential election will play a large role for precious metal bugs. Therefore, it will be prudent for any long term holders like myself to carefully watch politics as they play out this coming fall and adjust our long term holdings accordingly.
Actually my whole analysis is not about simply hitting a downtrend line although I find levels of support and resistance to gain a macro perspective about price movement. Support and resistance are helpful to supplement other indicators like money flow and other information that I study daily. The good folks at Seeking Alpha removed the last paragraph of my submission which read, " We describe technical reasons in greater detail that push silver and gold higher or lower at our blog site and in our newsletter which can be found at and respectively." So you may want to tune into our blog and stay abreast of these other indicators that we look at on an on-going basis.
You left out the last sentence where I point out that investors only want to follow this approach until the long term down trend is over, "Consequently, you may want to use some of these ideas to hedge your holdings in gold and silver until the longer term down trend reverses itself to the upside".
Apparently, Seeking Alpha is having some technical difficultly with the chart because you cannot click on it and see the detail. You can see the chart in greater detail at our blog at:
To the readers who have been kind enough to read the article carefully consider the following. The last time the NASDAQ composite was above 2890 was in December of 2000 over 11 years ago! The last time the S&P 500 was above the 1360 level was at the end of May in 2008, 3.6 years ago. On Friday the NASDAQ closed at 2816 and the S&P 500 closed at 1316. Consequently, both indexes have a few more points of upside before they run into what I would consider major overhead resistance, but both are within 3% of running into resistance levels that they have been unable to penetrate for many years.
The reason that we look at the broader market is because its very difficult to find a stock, industry or sector that is uncorrelated with the market as a whole. For instance, when the market collapsed in 2008 the safest investment you could make was sitting in the safety of cash.
All of my positions in both GLD and SLV are hedged with in the money covered calls.
Physical Receipt:
I think that your are letting a fundamental story about silver get in the way of what the charts are currently showing. I am bullish on both gold and silver over the next year, but in the short term the charts are showing that we are going lower in price. For gold down into the $1,500 - $1,550 range and silver down into the $20 - $25 range. Once those prices are reached it's clear from for a fundamental and technical standpoint that we will see higher prices ahead. I think what you missed in the article is that prices are correcting now and in the short term are going lower.
You've got a great web site. It provides a lot of support for what the market is telling us.